The Export Scan

This paper by Daan Zult and Floris van Ruth describes a new type of analytical tool, developed for detecting early signals of changes in the development of exports. It is novel in several ways; it focuses on exports using a demand-pull approach, is based on a structural analysis of the demand for Dutch exports, and takes the form a disaggregated visual tool. 16 selected foreign demand sectors are monitored using leading signaling indicators. The aggregate is leading to the growth rate of Dutch exports. The disaggregated set up results in increased early warning capabilities, as changes in development in individual industries are immediately visible.