Auteur: Jaap Walhout, Jochem Zweerink
Plausibiliteitsanalyses onderwijsachterstandenindicator scholen primair onderwijs 2016-2020

3. Analyse omgevingskenmerken en imputatie

In dit hoofdstuk bekijken we de relatieve frequentie van de voor het berekenen van de onderwijsscores gebruikte omgevingskenmerken, alsmede gegevens over hoe vaak onderwijsscores geïmputeerd zijn. 

3.1 Opleidingsniveau van ouders

Het opleidingsniveau van ouders is een belangrijk kenmerk voor het berekenen van de onderwijsscores. Voor het opleidingsniveau wordt gebruikgemaakt van bestaande onderwijsregistraties zoals die in het Stelsel van Sociaal-statistische Bestanden (SSB) van het CBS aanwezig zijn.

De onderwijsregistratie in het SSB is echter incompleet voor een deel van de Nederlandse bevolking. Het opleidingsniveau is vaker onbekend voor oudere mensen, mensen met een lager opleidingsniveau en mensen die (een deel van) hun opleiding in het buitenland hebben gevolgd. De onbekende opleidingsniveaus worden alsnog bepaald met specifieke statistische methoden; dit wordt ook wel imputatie genoemd. Bij het imputeren wordt gebruikgemaakt van andere kenmerken die wel bekend zijn uit registraties en die samenhangen met het opleidingsniveau van een persoon, zoals het inkomen en (indien bekend) het opleidingsniveau van de partner. Op basis van een aantal kenmerken wordt een voorspelling gemaakt van de onbekende opleidingsniveaus. Op individueel niveau zal deze voorspelling uiteraard niet altijd kloppen, maar gemiddeld over grotere groepen mensen geven de imputaties een betrouwbare schatting van de werkelijke verdeling van het opleidingsniveau. 

De figuren 3.1.1 en 3.1.2 geven de relatieve frequentie weer van de opleidingsniveaus van ouders uitgesplitst naar jaar. De verdeling van het opleidingsniveau wordt getoond van boven, het hoogste opleidingsniveau (Hbo-, wo-master, doctor), naar beneden, het laagste opleidingsniveau (Basisonderwijs).  De figuur laat zien dat ouders, vooral moeders, in de loop der jaren vaker hoger opgeleid zijn en minder vaak mbo-4 opgeleid zijn. Wat opvalt is de daling in het aandeel moeders en vaders dat mbo-2 of mbo-3 opgeleid is in 2020. Ook de relatief sterke stijging in het aandeel moeders en vaders met hbo-, wo-bachelor als hoogste opleidingsniveau in 2020 ten opzichte van voorgaande jaren valt op. Deze afwijkende patronen voor opleidingsniveaus van ouders worden mogelijk veroorzaakt doordat de vulling van opleidingsniveaus van ouders over de tijd beter wordt en dit in net iets andere geïmputeerde opleidingsniveaus resulteert. 

3.1.1 Opleidingsniveau vader
Opleidingsniveau vader20162017201820192020
Hbo-, wo-master, doctor1414,614,915,215,2
Hbo-, wo-bachelor22,422,72323,224,3
Havo, vwo6,36,36,166
Mbo424,123,322,521,820,8
Mbo2 en mbo317,217,618,118,418
Vmbo-g/t, avo onderbouw1,91,91,92,12,1
vmbo-b/k, mbo18,58,17,87,77,6
Basisonderwijs5,65,55,85,66

3.1.2 Opleidingsniveau moeder
Opleidingsniveau moeder20162017201820192020
Hbo-, wo-master, doctor14,214,815,616,517
Hbo-, wo-bachelor24,925,726,326,828,6
Havo, vwo5,65,354,94,7
Mbo422,922,121,220,519,9
Mbo2 en mbo316,416,416,516,315,1
Vmbo-g/t, avo onderbouw2,52,62,42,42,4
vmbo-b/k, mbo16,96,76,46,36,3
Basisonderwijs6,66,56,56,26

3.2 Herkomst

De figuren 3.2.1 en 3.2.2 tonen de relatieve frequentie van de herkomstcategorie uitgesplitst naar jaar. Hierbij krijgt een kind waarvan één van de ouders als herkomst Nederland heeft, ook Nederland als herkomst. Het aandeel kinderen met “Overig Afrika, overig Azië, overig Latijns-Amerika” als herkomst is de afgelopen jaren geleidelijk is gestegen. Mogelijke verklaringen hiervoor zijn de instroom van kinderen vanuit Syrië en de instroom van kennismigranten uit onder meer India.  Ook het aandeel kinderen uit (nieuwe) EU-landen is gestegen. Deze stijgingen gingen vooral ten koste van het aandeel kinderen met een Nederlandse herkomst. De aandelen kinderen in de overige herkomstcategorieën bleven grofweg gelijk over de tijd.

3.2.1 Herkomst
Herkomst20162017201820192020
Nederland81,180,479,678,978,4
EU-15, andere ontwikkelde economieën1,41,41,51,61,6
Nieuwe EU-landen en economieën in transitie2,12,32,42,62,8
Noord-Afrika4,44,44,44,44,4
Oost-Azië1,31,41,41,41,5
Overig Afrika, overig Azië, overig Latijns Amerika4,34,95,25,55,8
Suriname en (voormalige) Nederlandse Antillen2,42,42,42,42,5
Turkije3,03,03,03,13,1

3.2.2 Herkomst (zonder Nederland)
Herkomst20162017201820192020
EU-15, andere ontwikkelde economieën1,41,41,51,61,6
Nieuwe EU-landen en economieën in transitie2,12,32,42,62,8
Noord-Afrika4,44,44,44,44,4
Oost-Azië1,31,41,41,41,5
Overig Afrika, overig Azië, overig Latijns Amerika4,34,95,25,55,8
Suriname en (voormalige) Nederlandse Antillen2,42,42,42,42,5
Turkije3,03,03,03,13,1

3.3 Verblijfsduur van de moeder 

Figuur 3.3.1 geeft de relatieve frequentie van de verblijfsduur van de moeder van het kind uitgesplitst naar jaar weer. Het aandeel moeders met een verblijfsduur korter dan 5 jaar is vanwege de recente migranteninstroom licht toegenomen. Dit gaat ten koste van de fractie moeders met een verblijfsduur langer dan 10 jaar. 

3.3.1 Verblijfsduur moeder
Verblijfsduur moeder20162017201820192020
>1092,491,69190,690,4
5-10jr3,94,14,24,34,6
0-5jr3,74,34,85,15

3.4 Ouders in de schuldsanering

Figuur 3.4.1 toont het percentage leerlingen met ouders in de schuldsanering uitgesplitst naar jaar. Het aandeel kinderen met ouders in de schuldsanering is de afgelopen jaren gedaald. Dit is waarschijnlijk het gevolg van dat het economisch de laatste jaren tot aan de coronacrisis steeds beter ging en de werkloosheid steeds verder is gedaald. 

3.4.1 Leerlingen met ouders in de schuldsanering
Leerlingen met ouders in de schuldsanering20162017201820192020
10,930,860,750,61
 

3.5 Gemiddeld opleidingsniveau van moeders op school

Figuur 3.5.1 laat de relatieve frequentie zien van het gemiddelde opleidingsniveau van de moeders op school uitgesplitst naar jaar. Het gemiddelde opleidingsniveau van de moeders op school is de laatste jaren gestegen. Dit is in lijn met de eerdere geconstateerde stijging van het opleidingsniveau van moeders.  

3.5.1 Gemiddelde opleidingsniveau van moeders op school
Gemiddelde opleidingsniveau van moeders op school2016 (Dichtheid)2017 (Dichtheid)2018 (Dichtheid)2019 (Dichtheid)2020 (Dichtheid)
00,004130,004240,002790,001700,00404
0,010760,004360,004600,003130,001630,00446
0,021530,004680,004860,003490,001600,00485
0,032290,005100,005030,003850,001610,00518
0,043050,005600,005130,004190,001640,00545
0,053820,006140,005210,004500,001680,00563
0,064580,006680,005300,004760,001730,00574
0,075340,007160,005450,004960,001800,00577
0,086110,007510,005700,005090,001900,00574
0,096870,007700,006070,005140,002030,00565
0,107630,007730,006560,005140,002220,00551
0,118400,007590,007160,005100,002460,00534
0,129160,007350,007870,005050,002750,00517
0,139920,007040,008650,005030,003090,00503
0,150680,006730,009460,005070,003470,00494
0,161450,006480,010270,005190,003860,00494
0,172210,006360,011020,005410,004260,00508
0,182970,006400,011680,005710,004630,00539
0,193740,006660,012170,006090,004990,00588
0,204500,007150,012470,006520,005330,00654
0,215260,007910,012560,006970,005650,00737
0,226030,008950,012440,007400,005950,00832
0,236790,010290,012110,007800,006260,00931
0,247550,011920,011620,008150,006560,01027
0,258320,013800,011040,008480,006870,01113
0,269080,015850,010420,008790,007180,01179
0,279840,017990,009870,009140,007470,01222
0,290610,020090,009450,009570,007750,01239
0,301370,022050,009250,010090,008020,01230
0,312130,023730,009330,010720,008280,01197
0,322900,025080,009730,011440,008560,01146
0,333660,026030,010470,012230,008890,01081
0,344420,026590,011550,013040,009290,01010
0,355190,026780,012880,013810,009810,00939
0,365950,026680,014390,014500,010470,00875
0,376710,026330,015950,015060,011290,00823
0,387480,025820,017460,015460,012300,00787
0,398240,025180,018810,015710,013500,00771
0,409000,024470,019900,015810,014850,00777
0,419770,023710,020680,015780,016350,00805
0,430530,022950,021150,015660,017970,00855
0,441290,022220,021340,015490,019650,00924
0,452050,021560,021320,015290,021360,01013
0,462820,021050,021190,015080,023040,01120
0,473580,020710,021040,014890,024630,01243
0,484340,020600,020950,014750,026080,01379
0,495110,020740,020940,014680,027310,01524
0,505870,021150,020990,014700,028280,01672
0,516630,021810,021040,014830,028920,01818
0,527400,022710,021020,015090,029200,01955
0,538160,023810,020840,015510,029120,02077
0,548920,025070,020450,016120,028690,02180
0,559690,026450,019860,016970,028000,02257
0,570450,027910,019090,018090,027120,02309
0,581210,029390,018230,019510,026180,02338
0,591980,030870,017390,021250,025340,02345
0,602740,032280,016690,023310,024700,02333
0,613500,033610,016270,025640,024370,02306
0,624270,034790,016260,028150,024410,02269
0,635030,035800,016760,030710,024830,02226
0,645790,036590,017880,033170,025630,02182
0,656560,037140,019580,035340,026760,02140
0,667320,037420,021820,037060,028140,02107
0,678080,037420,024470,038200,029680,02089
0,688850,037150,027360,038690,031270,02092
0,699610,036640,030280,038520,032800,02123
0,710370,035960,033000,037770,034170,02193
0,721140,035230,035330,036630,035250,02305
0,731900,034580,037100,035320,035960,02464
0,742660,034120,038220,034020,036260,02669
0,753420,033960,038690,032880,036150,02917
0,764190,034120,038590,032040,035670,03197
0,774950,034600,038090,031520,034850,03495
0,785710,035310,037420,031310,033800,03791
0,796480,036150,036870,031360,032600,04064
0,807240,036970,036750,031590,031360,04291
0,818000,037670,037280,031930,030180,04454
0,828770,038170,038660,032340,029150,04536
0,839530,038470,040980,032820,028360,04533
0,850290,038650,044240,033440,027870,04440
0,861060,038830,048370,034300,027740,04276
0,871820,039230,053190,035470,028000,04065
0,882580,040020,058450,037020,028650,03830
0,893350,041380,063830,038940,029630,03600
0,904110,043410,068990,041150,030900,03400
0,914870,046200,073600,043520,032390,03251
0,925640,049770,077340,045870,034000,03168
0,936400,054120,079970,048000,035680,03157
0,947160,059190,081250,049730,037370,03221
0,957930,064880,081250,050970,039040,03352
0,968690,071030,080110,051690,040690,03543
0,979450,077410,078100,051950,042340,03781
0,990220,083730,075550,051930,044030,04054
1,000980,089630,072810,051870,045780,04349
1,011740,094780,070230,052050,047630,04655
1,022500,098850,068080,052690,049600,04962
1,033270,101540,066560,053960,051690,05263
1,044030,102890,065730,055920,053880,05552
1,054790,102980,065590,058530,056140,05824
1,065560,102010,066050,061700,058470,06074
1,076320,100260,066960,065220,060830,06300
1,087080,098000,068180,068890,063200,06497
1,097850,095530,069610,072480,065560,06665
1,108610,093080,071140,075800,067860,06800
1,119370,090880,072750,078710,070050,06903
1,130140,089110,074420,081140,072110,06973
1,140900,087980,076160,083090,073990,07010
1,151660,087670,077980,084630,075690,07018
1,162430,088430,079880,085910,077210,07007
1,173190,090470,081820,087070,078630,06985
1,183950,094060,083780,088240,080010,06965
1,194720,099260,085720,089490,081410,06961
1,205480,105960,087640,090870,082860,06986
1,216240,113890,089550,092390,084350,07051
1,227010,122620,091480,094020,085770,07164
1,237770,131550,093490,095690,087020,07325
1,248530,139970,095660,097350,087950,07532
1,259300,147200,098050,098940,088450,07777
1,270060,152640,100660,100460,088440,08050
1,280820,155870,103450,101880,087950,08338
1,291590,156730,106370,103250,087120,08631
1,302350,155340,109320,104600,086180,08920
1,313110,152060,112200,105960,085470,09202
1,323870,147490,114910,107350,085320,09474
1,334640,142290,117370,108770,085980,09738
1,345400,137240,119540,110200,087640,09993
1,356160,132990,121390,111630,090350,10241
1,366930,129970,122930,113030,094070,10482
1,377690,128430,124180,114400,098650,10717
1,388450,128490,125180,115750,103860,10945
1,399220,130070,126010,117110,109450,11166
1,409980,132990,126760,118500,115170,11380
1,420740,137000,127560,119980,120760,11587
1,431510,141780,128540,121560,126030,11787
1,442270,147000,129860,123280,130850,11979
1,453030,152340,131670,125120,135120,12163
1,463800,157550,134120,127060,138850,12340
1,474560,162460,137310,129070,142130,12510
1,485320,167000,141340,131120,145040,12672
1,496090,171190,146200,133170,147700,12825
1,506850,175210,151880,135190,150180,12967
1,517610,179290,158260,137200,152570,13093
1,528380,183640,165200,139200,154850,13198
1,539140,188450,172520,141260,157010,13276
1,549900,193770,180040,143450,158970,13324
1,560670,199570,187560,145880,160630,13344
1,571430,205660,194960,148650,161920,13340
1,582190,211800,202160,151910,162830,13323
1,592950,217670,209140,155750,163400,13313
1,603720,222960,215950,160220,163800,13326
1,614480,227420,222670,165310,164320,13381
1,625240,230890,229460,171000,165290,13488
1,636010,233300,236430,177210,167020,13654
1,646770,234740,243720,183820,169790,13881
1,657530,235330,251380,190710,173780,14165
1,668300,235360,259370,197730,179050,14503
1,679060,235080,267510,204790,185500,14891
1,689820,234690,275490,211820,192940,15332
1,700590,234350,282830,218790,201070,15829
1,711350,234160,289010,225760,209510,16391
1,722110,234180,293620,232790,217890,17027
1,732880,234460,296370,240010,225830,17749
1,743640,235070,297170,247480,232940,18545
1,754400,236070,296160,255200,238930,19402
1,765170,237590,293670,263070,243610,20294
1,775930,239720,290190,270960,246850,21190
1,786690,242530,286270,278660,248550,22053
1,797460,246040,282460,285960,248730,22846
1,808220,250170,279180,292690,247450,23535
1,818980,254760,276690,298720,244890,24097
1,829750,259480,275090,304010,241310,24517
1,840510,264020,274300,308610,237050,24793
1,851270,268080,274150,312590,232510,24939
1,862040,271400,274370,316060,228160,24983
1,872800,273850,274760,319080,224460,24964
1,883560,275420,275200,321660,221880,24937
1,894320,276280,275650,323780,220910,24957
1,905090,276790,276120,325370,221720,25067
1,915850,277450,276670,326390,224470,25298
1,926610,278840,277340,326880,229170,25665
1,937380,281580,278170,326970,235730,26162
1,948140,286180,279170,326860,243940,26767
1,958900,292960,280380,326820,253550,27441
1,969670,302100,281860,327140,264220,28139
1,980430,313260,283730,328010,275620,28812
1,991190,325820,286170,329530,287430,29419
2,001960,339040,289390,331650,299330,29928
2,012720,352100,293570,334180,311060,30320
2,023480,364240,298780,336820,322390,30587
2,034250,374840,304980,339240,333110,30745
2,045010,383480,312000,341190,343100,30818
2,055770,389950,319580,342580,352280,30836
2,066540,394320,327380,343440,360610,30827
2,077300,396820,335040,343940,368020,30822
2,088060,397840,342200,344350,374480,30847
2,098830,397870,348600,344970,379950,30925
2,109590,397410,354060,346120,384420,31071
2,120350,396950,358540,348030,387880,31293
2,131120,396990,362090,350850,390350,31591
2,141880,397830,364930,354610,391850,31958
2,152640,399720,367350,359200,392430,32381
2,163410,402820,369820,364430,392130,32844
2,174170,407230,372790,370060,390980,33329
2,184930,412990,376690,375780,388980,33814
2,195690,420110,381870,381370,386220,34283
2,206460,428510,388570,386720,382740,34722
2,217220,438060,396840,391790,378650,35119
2,227980,448490,406570,396660,374140,35466
2,238750,459440,417480,401490,369460,35755
2,249510,470450,429150,406440,364980,35984
2,260270,480980,441090,411690,361090,36155
2,271040,490470,452800,417350,358180,36274
2,281800,498380,463860,423400,356590,36354
2,292560,504290,473960,429710,356560,36412
2,303330,508210,482860,436030,358150,36470
2,314090,510260,490590,441980,361260,36556
2,324850,510790,497290,447140,365750,36701
2,335620,510250,503100,451270,371160,36930
2,346380,509160,508140,454240,377170,37264
2,357140,508060,512460,456160,383530,37715
2,367910,507400,516020,457320,390140,38288
2,378670,507540,518730,458180,396990,38975
2,389430,508740,520450,459270,404210,39757
2,400200,511110,521080,461120,412030,40602
2,410960,514680,520610,464150,420660,41471
2,421720,519320,519190,468550,430290,42319
2,432490,524830,517130,474330,441030,43102
2,443250,530830,514930,481250,452840,43782
2,454010,536810,513300,488940,465520,44329
2,464770,542190,513010,496950,478750,44723
2,475540,546420,514630,504870,491960,44977
2,486300,549000,518540,512490,504600,45120
2,497060,549550,524860,519810,516110,45188
2,507830,547840,533320,526990,526010,45226
2,518590,543850,543380,534250,533950,45280
2,529350,537730,554190,541820,539760,45393
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