Time-series small area estimation for unemployment based on a rotating panel survey

A time-series multi-level model is used to estimate municipal unemployment based on the Dutch Labour Force Survey (LFS) at a quarterly frequency. The model includes random municipality effects as well as random municipality-by-quarter effects. The latter are modelled as independent effects or random walks over time, or as a sum of both. The model is fit using quarterly LFS data from 2003 to 2008.

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