Sociale spanningen-indicator: Peilstok samenleving

Eerder berichtte het CBS over de ontwikkeling van de sociale spanningen-indicator op basis van sociale media berichten. Deze indicator is ontwikkeld door het Center for Big Data Statistics (CBDS) van het CBS en is bedoeld om de spanningen in de samenleving te meten. Door de focus op maatschappelijke onrust onderscheidt de sociale spanningen-indicator zich van meer algemene metingen van positief of negatief sentiment op sociale media. Er is gebruik gemaakt van een lijst met woorden, die specifiek betrekking hebben op gevoelens van spanningen en onrust. Op basis van deze lijst met woorden is het percentage dagelijkse Twitterberichten in kaart gebracht, dat over deze onderwerpen gaat.

De indicator is vanaf 1 januari 2010 tot en met medio december 2018 per dag bijgewerkt. Vanaf december 2017 is er een stijging in de sociale spanningen waarneembaar. Additionele analyse toont aan dat er in deze periode relatief meer berichten zijn gepost, die negatieve veranderingen in de samenleving melden. Specifieke voorbeelden hiervan zijn gebeurtenissen met betrekking tot migratiebeleid (met name reacties op de mogelijke uitzetting van twee Armeense tieners), alsmede de zwartepietendiscussie en de rellen tijdens de intocht van Sinterklaas in 2018. Een ander voorbeeld betreft de mogelijke negatieve gevolgen van de verbreding van de bevoegdheden van de inlichtingendiensten, in combinatie met de verscherpte privacywetgeving.

Methode

In de analyse zijn meegenomen alle openbare Nederlandstalige tweets en retweets door Nederlandse gebruikers, gepost in Nederland. Dit impliceert dat berichten van dat deel van de Nederlandse bevolking, dat op Twitter actief is, als uitgangspunt is genomen voor het weergeven van sociale spanningen onder de Nederlandse bevolking. Het is bekend dat gebruikers van sociale netwerken, zoals Twitter, niet representatief zijn voor de bevolking. Ook is bekend dat jongeren nog steeds oververtegenwoordigd zijn op dergelijke netwerken (CBS, 2018). Eerder CBS-onderzoek heeft echter aangetoond dat sociale media bruikbaar zijn voor het meten van op sentiment gebaseerde indicatoren. Ook is aangetoond dat berichtgeving op sociale media een goede indicatie vormt voor sentimenten in de samenleving (Daas en Puts, 2014; Van den Brakel et al., 2017).

De berichten, die gevoelens van spanning en onrust weerspiegelen, zijn afgezet tegen het totaal aantal berichten per dag. Op basis van diepte-interviews is vastgesteld welke woorden mensen gebruiken als zij onveiligheid beschrijven. Deze lijst is met synoniemen aangevuld tot ongeveer 350 woorden en gecheckt door een groep experts van het CBS. De woorden uit deze lijst, die het meest op sociale media worden gebruikt, zijn vervolgens meegenomen in de definitieve woordenlijst. Berichten over sportevenementen en politiek zijn uit de selectieberichten gefilterd omdat deze een verstorend effect hadden. Tot slot zijn de pieken in de indicator gevalideerd; er is gecheckt welke gebeurtenissen op of vlak voor de betreffende datum plaatsvonden en daarna is bekeken of de geselecteerde berichten daadwerkelijk over deze gebeurtenis(sen) gingen. Voor het bepalen van de trend is een mediaanfilter gebruikt over een voortschrijdende periode van 50 dagen. Er is gekozen voor de mediaan, de middelste waarde, omdat deze minder gevoelig is voor extreme waarden (de pieken).

Resultaten

In de visualisatie is te zien dat de sociale spanningen-indicator varieert over tijd. Ook is te zien dat de indicator met enige regelmaat scherpe pieken vertoont. Deze pieken geven momenten in de tijd weer, waarop relatief veel berichten zijn geplaatst, die gevoelens van spanningen en onrust uitdrukken. Voorbeelden hiervan zijn de grote piek in 2010, die samengaat met de verstoring van de Nationale Dodenherdenking op 4 mei in Amsterdam (de Damschreeuwer) en pieken, die met aanslagen te maken hebben. Voorbeelden zijn de MH17 ramp (17 juli 2014) en de aanslagen in Parijs (13 november 2015) en Brussel (22 maart 2016). Vanaf eind 2017 is een duidelijke verandering in de sociale spanningen-indicator waarneembaar. Er is vanaf dat moment sprake van een sterke toename van de lange termijn trend (de basislijn).

Sociale spanningen-indicator
 Indicator (% berichten die sociale spanningen weergeven)Trend (% berichten die sociale spanningen weergeven)
01-01-'100,410,35
02-01-'100,100,35
03-01-'100,200,35
04-01-'100,300,35
05-01-'100,500,35
06-01-'100,340,35
07-01-'100,440,35
08-01-'100,430,35
09-01-'100,400,35
10-01-'100,440,35
11-01-'100,370,35
12-01-'100,410,35
13-01-'100,580,35
14-01-'100,250,35
15-01-'100,400,35
16-01-'100,340,35
17-01-'100,410,35
18-01-'100,340,35
19-01-'100,350,35
20-01-'100,480,35
21-01-'100,410,35
22-01-'100,420,35
23-01-'100,300,35
24-01-'100,370,35
25-01-'100,230,35
26-01-'100,460,35
27-01-'100,400,35
28-01-'100,430,35
29-01-'100,270,35
30-01-'100,590,35
31-01-'100,450,35
01-02-'100,250,35
02-02-'100,280,35
03-02-'100,350,35
04-02-'100,280,35
05-02-'100,280,35
06-02-'100,360,35
07-02-'100,320,35
08-02-'100,310,35
09-02-'100,340,35
10-02-'100,380,35
11-02-'100,320,35
12-02-'100,410,35
13-02-'100,300,35
14-02-'100,230,35
15-02-'100,210,35
16-02-'100,280,35
17-02-'100,360,35
18-02-'100,280,35
19-02-'100,270,35
20-02-'100,520,35
21-02-'100,510,35
22-02-'100,450,35
23-02-'100,450,35
24-02-'100,410,35
25-02-'100,440,35
26-02-'100,420,35
27-02-'100,450,35
28-02-'100,330,35
01-03-'100,350,35
02-03-'100,390,35
03-03-'100,330,35
04-03-'100,300,35
05-03-'100,320,35
06-03-'100,280,35
07-03-'100,410,35
08-03-'100,240,35
09-03-'100,290,35
10-03-'100,350,35
11-03-'100,280,35
12-03-'100,270,35
13-03-'100,490,36
14-03-'100,300,36
15-03-'100,350,36
16-03-'100,530,36
17-03-'100,490,36
18-03-'100,360,36
19-03-'100,310,36
20-03-'100,360,36
21-03-'100,390,36
22-03-'100,320,36
23-03-'100,280,36
24-03-'100,400,36
25-03-'100,210,36
26-03-'100,270,36
27-03-'100,370,36
28-03-'100,430,36
29-03-'100,390,36
30-03-'100,320,36
31-03-'100,490,36
01-04-'100,310,36
02-04-'100,340,36
03-04-'100,430,36
04-04-'100,430,36
05-04-'100,440,36
06-04-'100,350,36
07-04-'100,360,36
08-04-'100,370,36
09-04-'100,360,36
10-04-'100,430,36
11-04-'100,490,36
12-04-'100,420,36
13-04-'100,400,36
14-04-'100,440,36
15-04-'100,310,36
16-04-'100,320,36
17-04-'100,370,36
18-04-'100,530,36
19-04-'100,360,36
20-04-'100,290,37
21-04-'100,250,37
22-04-'100,340,37
23-04-'100,360,37
24-04-'100,230,37
25-04-'100,310,37
26-04-'100,280,37
27-04-'100,180,37
28-04-'100,340,37
29-04-'100,330,37
30-04-'100,310,37
01-05-'100,390,37
02-05-'100,420,37
03-05-'100,390,37
04-05-'101,960,38
05-05-'100,610,38
06-05-'100,530,38
07-05-'100,550,38
08-05-'100,460,38
09-05-'100,570,38
10-05-'100,360,38
11-05-'100,380,38
12-05-'100,620,39
13-05-'100,440,39
14-05-'100,650,39
15-05-'100,440,39
16-05-'100,330,39
17-05-'100,400,39
18-05-'100,360,40
19-05-'100,400,40
20-05-'100,460,42
21-05-'100,200,43
22-05-'100,250,44
23-05-'100,470,44
24-05-'100,430,44
25-05-'100,240,44
26-05-'100,190,45
27-05-'100,150,45
28-05-'100,280,45
29-05-'100,210,45
30-05-'100,280,45
31-05-'100,300,45
01-06-'100,370,45
02-06-'100,340,45
03-06-'100,440,45
04-06-'100,480,45
05-06-'100,480,45
06-06-'100,540,45
07-06-'100,550,45
08-06-'100,510,45
09-06-'100,490,45
10-06-'100,530,46
11-06-'100,480,46
12-06-'100,490,46
13-06-'100,460,46
14-06-'100,440,46
15-06-'100,470,46
16-06-'100,470,46
17-06-'100,480,46
18-06-'100,460,46
19-06-'100,450,46
20-06-'100,460,46
21-06-'100,430,46
22-06-'100,460,46
23-06-'100,500,46
24-06-'100,440,46
25-06-'100,450,46
26-06-'100,450,46
27-06-'100,500,46
28-06-'100,470,46
29-06-'100,480,46
30-06-'100,440,46
01-07-'100,460,46
02-07-'100,430,47
03-07-'100,440,47
04-07-'100,450,47
05-07-'100,480,47
06-07-'100,450,47
07-07-'100,470,47
08-07-'100,460,47
09-07-'100,430,47
10-07-'100,470,47
11-07-'100,480,47
12-07-'100,540,47
13-07-'100,430,47
14-07-'100,510,47
15-07-'100,470,47
16-07-'100,420,47
17-07-'100,500,47
18-07-'100,440,47
19-07-'100,460,47
20-07-'100,480,47
21-07-'100,450,47
22-07-'100,460,47
23-07-'100,440,47
24-07-'100,830,47
25-07-'100,630,47
26-07-'100,470,47
27-07-'100,490,47
28-07-'100,490,47
29-07-'100,520,47
30-07-'100,480,47
31-07-'100,460,47
01-08-'100,480,47
02-08-'100,520,47
03-08-'100,490,47
04-08-'100,470,47
05-08-'100,510,47
06-08-'100,470,47
07-08-'100,470,47
08-08-'100,480,47
09-08-'100,490,47
10-08-'100,520,47
11-08-'100,500,47
12-08-'100,450,47
13-08-'100,470,47
14-08-'100,460,47
15-08-'100,440,47
16-08-'100,480,47
17-08-'100,490,47
18-08-'100,450,47
19-08-'100,460,47
20-08-'100,540,47
21-08-'100,470,47
22-08-'100,460,47
23-08-'100,460,47
24-08-'100,490,47
25-08-'100,460,47
26-08-'100,490,47
27-08-'100,440,47
28-08-'100,480,47
29-08-'100,470,47
30-08-'100,450,47
31-08-'100,490,47
01-09-'100,460,47
02-09-'100,460,47
03-09-'100,510,47
04-09-'100,480,48
05-09-'100,470,48
06-09-'100,500,48
07-09-'100,510,48
08-09-'100,500,48
09-09-'100,450,48
10-09-'100,470,48
11-09-'100,480,48
12-09-'100,480,48
13-09-'100,490,48
14-09-'100,440,48
15-09-'100,480,48
16-09-'100,450,48
17-09-'100,460,48
18-09-'100,450,48
19-09-'100,470,48
20-09-'100,490,48
21-09-'100,500,48
22-09-'100,460,48
23-09-'100,490,48
24-09-'100,440,48
25-09-'100,480,48
26-09-'100,460,48
27-09-'100,470,48
28-09-'100,480,49
29-09-'100,480,49
30-09-'100,540,49
01-10-'100,500,49
02-10-'100,530,49
03-10-'100,470,49
04-10-'100,500,49
05-10-'100,450,49
06-10-'100,430,49
07-10-'100,490,49
08-10-'100,400,50
09-10-'100,370,50
10-10-'100,390,50
11-10-'100,510,50
12-10-'100,600,50
13-10-'100,540,50
14-10-'100,530,50
15-10-'100,510,50
16-10-'100,490,50
17-10-'100,490,51
18-10-'100,530,51
19-10-'100,500,51
20-10-'100,520,51
21-10-'100,540,51
22-10-'100,510,51
23-10-'100,500,51
24-10-'100,510,51
25-10-'100,540,51
26-10-'100,550,51
27-10-'100,570,52
28-10-'100,520,52
29-10-'100,500,52
30-10-'100,510,52
31-10-'100,540,52
01-11-'100,560,52
02-11-'100,560,52
03-11-'100,530,52
04-11-'100,540,52
05-11-'100,500,52
06-11-'100,490,52
07-11-'100,500,52
08-11-'100,520,52
09-11-'100,520,52
10-11-'100,560,52
11-11-'100,520,52
12-11-'100,500,52
13-11-'100,500,52
14-11-'100,520,52
15-11-'100,520,52
16-11-'100,550,52
17-11-'100,540,52
18-11-'100,530,52
19-11-'100,510,52
20-11-'100,510,52
21-11-'100,510,52
22-11-'100,530,52
23-11-'100,520,52
24-11-'100,520,52
25-11-'100,520,52
26-11-'100,510,52
27-11-'100,510,52
28-11-'100,500,52
29-11-'100,530,51
30-11-'100,530,51
01-12-'100,500,51
02-12-'100,550,51
03-12-'100,520,51
04-12-'100,510,51
05-12-'100,520,51
06-12-'100,510,51
07-12-'100,520,51
08-12-'100,490,51
09-12-'100,490,51
10-12-'100,510,51
11-12-'100,470,51
12-12-'100,540,51
13-12-'100,530,51
14-12-'100,520,51
15-12-'100,550,51
16-12-'100,510,51
17-12-'100,520,51
18-12-'100,480,51
19-12-'100,500,51
20-12-'100,500,51
21-12-'100,510,51
22-12-'100,470,51
23-12-'100,490,51
24-12-'100,470,51
25-12-'100,520,50
26-12-'100,510,50
27-12-'100,480,50
28-12-'100,490,50
29-12-'100,520,50
30-12-'100,530,50
31-12-'100,500,50
01-01-'110,500,50
02-01-'110,500,50
03-01-'110,500,50
04-01-'110,510,50
05-01-'110,560,50
06-01-'110,500,50
07-01-'110,500,50
08-01-'110,570,50
09-01-'110,500,50
10-01-'110,510,50
11-01-'110,520,50
12-01-'110,510,49
13-01-'110,500,49
14-01-'110,490,49
15-01-'110,480,49
16-01-'110,490,49
17-01-'110,490,49
18-01-'110,490,49
19-01-'110,500,49
20-01-'110,480,49
21-01-'110,470,49
22-01-'110,460,49
23-01-'110,490,49
24-01-'110,500,49
25-01-'110,490,49
26-01-'110,470,48
27-01-'110,500,48
28-01-'110,480,48
29-01-'110,460,48
30-01-'110,460,48
31-01-'110,460,48
01-02-'110,500,48
02-02-'110,490,47
03-02-'110,480,47
04-02-'110,460,47
05-02-'110,480,47
06-02-'110,480,47
07-02-'110,460,47
08-02-'110,460,46
09-02-'110,430,46
10-02-'110,490,46
11-02-'110,440,46
12-02-'110,440,46
13-02-'110,440,46
14-02-'110,470,46
15-02-'110,480,46
16-02-'110,460,46
17-02-'110,460,46
18-02-'110,460,46
19-02-'110,430,46
20-02-'110,440,46
21-02-'110,450,46
22-02-'110,460,46
23-02-'110,450,46
24-02-'110,460,46
25-02-'110,440,46
26-02-'110,440,46
27-02-'110,440,46
28-02-'110,480,46
01-03-'110,480,46
02-03-'110,470,46
03-03-'110,460,46
04-03-'110,440,46
05-03-'110,460,46
06-03-'110,470,46
07-03-'110,470,46
08-03-'110,470,46
09-03-'110,470,46
10-03-'110,470,46
11-03-'110,500,47
12-03-'110,460,47
13-03-'110,480,47
14-03-'110,490,47
15-03-'110,500,47
16-03-'110,470,47
17-03-'110,470,47
18-03-'110,470,47
19-03-'110,460,47
20-03-'110,460,47
21-03-'110,440,47
22-03-'110,450,47
23-03-'110,470,47
24-03-'110,470,47
25-03-'110,440,47
26-03-'110,480,47
27-03-'110,460,47
28-03-'110,480,47
29-03-'110,480,47
30-03-'110,500,47
31-03-'110,480,47
01-04-'110,450,47
02-04-'110,430,47
03-04-'110,460,47
04-04-'110,490,47
05-04-'110,510,47
06-04-'110,490,47
07-04-'110,470,47
08-04-'110,460,47
09-04-'110,710,47
10-04-'110,500,47
11-04-'110,520,47
12-04-'110,500,47
13-04-'110,530,47
14-04-'110,540,47
15-04-'110,450,47
16-04-'110,450,47
17-04-'110,480,47
18-04-'110,440,47
19-04-'110,460,47
20-04-'110,480,47
21-04-'110,450,47
22-04-'110,450,47
23-04-'110,490,47
24-04-'110,490,47
25-04-'110,480,47
26-04-'110,460,47
27-04-'110,450,47
28-04-'110,440,47
29-04-'110,400,47
30-04-'110,400,47
01-05-'110,440,47
02-05-'110,540,47
03-05-'110,430,47
04-05-'110,470,47
05-05-'110,440,47
06-05-'110,430,47
07-05-'110,420,47
08-05-'110,420,47
09-05-'110,450,47
10-05-'110,460,47
11-05-'110,490,47
12-05-'110,470,47
13-05-'110,490,47
14-05-'110,490,47
15-05-'110,500,47
16-05-'110,480,47
17-05-'110,480,48
18-05-'110,510,48
19-05-'110,480,48
20-05-'110,470,48
21-05-'110,460,48
22-05-'110,470,48
23-05-'110,510,48
24-05-'110,480,48
25-05-'110,470,48
26-05-'110,480,48
27-05-'110,460,48
28-05-'110,450,48
29-05-'110,460,48
30-05-'110,480,48
31-05-'110,490,48
01-06-'110,480,48
02-06-'110,470,48
03-06-'110,490,48
04-06-'110,490,48
05-06-'110,500,48
06-06-'110,460,48
07-06-'110,480,48
08-06-'110,500,48
09-06-'110,530,48
10-06-'110,500,48
11-06-'110,490,48
12-06-'110,500,48
13-06-'110,500,48
14-06-'110,510,48
15-06-'110,480,48
16-06-'110,480,48
17-06-'110,450,48
18-06-'110,490,48
19-06-'110,480,48
20-06-'110,480,48
21-06-'110,490,48
22-06-'110,480,48
23-06-'110,480,48
24-06-'110,450,48
25-06-'110,470,48
26-06-'110,470,48
27-06-'110,460,48
28-06-'110,520,48
29-06-'110,520,48
30-06-'110,460,48
01-07-'110,460,48
02-07-'110,450,48
03-07-'110,480,48
04-07-'110,460,49
05-07-'110,470,49
06-07-'110,510,49
07-07-'110,520,49
08-07-'110,470,49
09-07-'110,500,49
10-07-'110,520,49
11-07-'110,490,49
12-07-'110,500,49
13-07-'110,510,49
14-07-'110,470,49
15-07-'110,450,49
16-07-'110,470,49
17-07-'110,500,49
18-07-'110,470,49
19-07-'110,510,49
20-07-'110,490,49
21-07-'110,500,49
22-07-'110,500,49
23-07-'110,700,49
24-07-'110,560,49
25-07-'110,500,49
26-07-'110,490,49
27-07-'110,510,49
28-07-'110,490,49
29-07-'110,460,48
30-07-'110,470,48
31-07-'110,460,48
01-08-'110,510,48
02-08-'110,480,48
03-08-'110,480,48
04-08-'110,490,48
05-08-'110,480,48
06-08-'110,460,48
07-08-'110,490,48
08-08-'110,490,48
09-08-'110,570,48
10-08-'110,530,48
11-08-'110,520,48
12-08-'110,460,48
13-08-'110,480,48
14-08-'110,480,48
15-08-'110,450,48
16-08-'110,480,48
17-08-'110,470,48
18-08-'110,540,48
19-08-'110,500,48
20-08-'110,500,48
21-08-'110,470,48
22-08-'110,460,48
23-08-'110,510,48
24-08-'110,480,47
25-08-'110,460,47
26-08-'110,470,47
27-08-'110,460,47
28-08-'110,450,47
29-08-'110,450,47
30-08-'110,470,47
31-08-'110,450,47
01-09-'110,460,47
02-09-'110,420,47
03-09-'110,440,47
04-09-'110,480,47
05-09-'110,470,47
06-09-'110,450,47
07-09-'110,470,47
08-09-'110,480,47
09-09-'110,450,47
10-09-'110,460,47
11-09-'110,490,47
12-09-'110,480,47
13-09-'110,480,47
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