Social tensions indicator: Gauging society

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) has previously published articles about the development of the social tensions indicator based on social media posts. This indicator has been developed by Statistics Netherlands’ (CBS) Center for Big Data Statistics (CBDS) and is intended to measure tensions in society. What sets the social tensions indicator apart from more general measurements of positive or negative sentiments on social media is its focus on social unrest. This indicator uses a list of words specifically related to feelings of tension and agitation, with this list helping to establish the daily percentage of tweets about these topics.

The indicator was updated every day from 1 January 2010 to mid-December 2018. A visible increase in social tensions began in December 2017. Further analysis has shown that this period saw a relative increase in tweets reporting negative changes in society. Some specific examples include events relating to migration policy (in particular reactions to the possible deportation of two Armenian teenagers) as well as the debate about the controversial cultural figure Zwarte Piet and the associated riots during Sinterklaas celebrations in 2018. Another example relates to the potentially negative consequences of expanding the powers of the intelligence services, in combination with tighter privacy legislation.

Method

The analysis included all public tweets and retweets posted in Dutch by Dutch users located in the Netherlands. Hence, tweets from that proportion of the population of the Netherlands that is active on Twitter were used as the basic principle to reflect social tensions among the Dutch population. Although it is well known that users of social networks, such as Twitter, are not representative of the population at large, and that young people are still overrepresented on these networks (CBS, 2018), previous CBS research has shown that social media can be used to measure indicators that are based on sentiment. It has also become clear that posts on social media are a good indication of sentiments among society (Daas and Puts, 2014; Van den Brakel et al., 2017).

Tweets representing feelings of tension and unrest were offset against the total number of tweets per day. CBS used in-depth interviews to determine which words people use to describe insecurity. Including synonyms, the list contained around 350 words, which were checked by a group of experts from CBS. The words from this list that are used most often on social media were then included in the definitive list of words. Tweets relating to sports events and politics were filtered out of the selection, as they had a distorting effect. Finally, the peaks in the indicator were validated; once CBS had checked which events took place on or immediately before the date in question, the researchers investigated whether the selected tweets did in fact refer to these events. A median filter over a rolling period of 50 days was used to determine the trend. The median – the middle value – was selected because it is less sensitive to extreme values (the peaks).

Findings

The visualisation shows variations in the social tensions indicator over time. The indicator also displays fairly regular emphatic peaks. These peaks refer to specific moments when a relatively large number of tweets were posted that expressed feelings of tension and unrest, such as the significant peak in 2010 associated with the disruption of the National Remembrance Day commemorations by the ‘Dam Screamer’ on 4 May in Amsterdam. Other peaks were linked to attacks, such as the MH17 air disaster (17 July 2014) and the terrorist attacks in Paris (13 November 2015) and Brussels (22 March 2016). A clear change in the social tensions indicator is visible starting at the end of 2017, when the long-term trend (the baseline) began to rise significantly.

Social tensions indicator
 Indicator (Percentage of posts indicating social tensions)Trend (Percentage of posts indicating social tensions)
01-01-'100.410.35
02-01-'100.100.35
03-01-'100.200.35
04-01-'100.300.35
05-01-'100.500.35
06-01-'100.340.35
07-01-'100.440.35
08-01-'100.430.35
09-01-'100.400.35
10-01-'100.440.35
11-01-'100.370.35
12-01-'100.410.35
13-01-'100.580.35
14-01-'100.250.35
15-01-'100.400.35
16-01-'100.340.35
17-01-'100.410.35
18-01-'100.340.35
19-01-'100.350.35
20-01-'100.480.35
21-01-'100.410.35
22-01-'100.420.35
23-01-'100.300.35
24-01-'100.370.35
25-01-'100.230.35
26-01-'100.460.35
27-01-'100.400.35
28-01-'100.430.35
29-01-'100.270.35
30-01-'100.590.35
31-01-'100.450.35
01-02-'100.250.35
02-02-'100.280.35
03-02-'100.350.35
04-02-'100.280.35
05-02-'100.280.35
06-02-'100.360.35
07-02-'100.320.35
08-02-'100.310.35
09-02-'100.340.35
10-02-'100.380.35
11-02-'100.320.35
12-02-'100.410.35
13-02-'100.300.35
14-02-'100.230.35
15-02-'100.210.35
16-02-'100.280.35
17-02-'100.360.35
18-02-'100.280.35
19-02-'100.270.35
20-02-'100.520.35
21-02-'100.510.35
22-02-'100.450.35
23-02-'100.450.35
24-02-'100.410.35
25-02-'100.440.35
26-02-'100.420.35
27-02-'100.450.35
28-02-'100.330.35
01-03-'100.350.35
02-03-'100.390.35
03-03-'100.330.35
04-03-'100.300.35
05-03-'100.320.35
06-03-'100.280.35
07-03-'100.410.35
08-03-'100.240.35
09-03-'100.290.35
10-03-'100.350.35
11-03-'100.280.35
12-03-'100.270.35
13-03-'100.490.36
14-03-'100.300.36
15-03-'100.350.36
16-03-'100.530.36
17-03-'100.490.36
18-03-'100.360.36
19-03-'100.310.36
20-03-'100.360.36
21-03-'100.390.36
22-03-'100.320.36
23-03-'100.280.36
24-03-'100.400.36
25-03-'100.210.36
26-03-'100.270.36
27-03-'100.370.36
28-03-'100.430.36
29-03-'100.390.36
30-03-'100.320.36
31-03-'100.490.36
01-04-'100.310.36
02-04-'100.340.36
03-04-'100.430.36
04-04-'100.430.36
05-04-'100.440.36
06-04-'100.350.36
07-04-'100.360.36
08-04-'100.370.36
09-04-'100.360.36
10-04-'100.430.36
11-04-'100.490.36
12-04-'100.420.36
13-04-'100.400.36
14-04-'100.440.36
15-04-'100.310.36
16-04-'100.320.36
17-04-'100.370.36
18-04-'100.530.36
19-04-'100.360.36
20-04-'100.290.37
21-04-'100.250.37
22-04-'100.340.37
23-04-'100.360.37
24-04-'100.230.37
25-04-'100.310.37
26-04-'100.280.37
27-04-'100.180.37
28-04-'100.340.37
29-04-'100.330.37
30-04-'100.310.37
01-05-'100.390.37
02-05-'100.420.37
03-05-'100.390.37
04-05-'101.960.38
05-05-'100.610.38
06-05-'100.530.38
07-05-'100.550.38
08-05-'100.460.38
09-05-'100.570.38
10-05-'100.360.38
11-05-'100.380.38
12-05-'100.620.39
13-05-'100.440.39
14-05-'100.650.39
15-05-'100.440.39
16-05-'100.330.39
17-05-'100.400.39
18-05-'100.360.40
19-05-'100.400.40
20-05-'100.460.42
21-05-'100.200.43
22-05-'100.250.44
23-05-'100.470.44
24-05-'100.430.44
25-05-'100.240.44
26-05-'100.190.45
27-05-'100.150.45
28-05-'100.280.45
29-05-'100.210.45
30-05-'100.280.45
31-05-'100.300.45
01-06-'100.370.45
02-06-'100.340.45
03-06-'100.440.45
04-06-'100.480.45
05-06-'100.480.45
06-06-'100.540.45
07-06-'100.550.45
08-06-'100.510.45
09-06-'100.490.45
10-06-'100.530.46
11-06-'100.480.46
12-06-'100.490.46
13-06-'100.460.46
14-06-'100.440.46
15-06-'100.470.46
16-06-'100.470.46
17-06-'100.480.46
18-06-'100.460.46
19-06-'100.450.46
20-06-'100.460.46
21-06-'100.430.46
22-06-'100.460.46
23-06-'100.500.46
24-06-'100.440.46
25-06-'100.450.46
26-06-'100.450.46
27-06-'100.500.46
28-06-'100.470.46
29-06-'100.480.46
30-06-'100.440.46
01-07-'100.460.46
02-07-'100.430.47
03-07-'100.440.47
04-07-'100.450.47
05-07-'100.480.47
06-07-'100.450.47
07-07-'100.470.47
08-07-'100.460.47
09-07-'100.430.47
10-07-'100.470.47
11-07-'100.480.47
12-07-'100.540.47
13-07-'100.430.47
14-07-'100.510.47
15-07-'100.470.47
16-07-'100.420.47
17-07-'100.500.47
18-07-'100.440.47
19-07-'100.460.47
20-07-'100.480.47
21-07-'100.450.47
22-07-'100.460.47
23-07-'100.440.47
24-07-'100.830.47
25-07-'100.630.47
26-07-'100.470.47
27-07-'100.490.47
28-07-'100.490.47
29-07-'100.520.47
30-07-'100.480.47
31-07-'100.460.47
01-08-'100.480.47
02-08-'100.520.47
03-08-'100.490.47
04-08-'100.470.47
05-08-'100.510.47
06-08-'100.470.47
07-08-'100.470.47
08-08-'100.480.47
09-08-'100.490.47
10-08-'100.520.47
11-08-'100.500.47
12-08-'100.450.47
13-08-'100.470.47
14-08-'100.460.47
15-08-'100.440.47
16-08-'100.480.47
17-08-'100.490.47
18-08-'100.450.47
19-08-'100.460.47
20-08-'100.540.47
21-08-'100.470.47
22-08-'100.460.47
23-08-'100.460.47
24-08-'100.490.47
25-08-'100.460.47
26-08-'100.490.47
27-08-'100.440.47
28-08-'100.480.47
29-08-'100.470.47
30-08-'100.450.47
31-08-'100.490.47
01-09-'100.460.47
02-09-'100.460.47
03-09-'100.510.47
04-09-'100.480.48
05-09-'100.470.48
06-09-'100.500.48
07-09-'100.510.48
08-09-'100.500.48
09-09-'100.450.48
10-09-'100.470.48
11-09-'100.480.48
12-09-'100.480.48
13-09-'100.490.48
14-09-'100.440.48
15-09-'100.480.48
16-09-'100.450.48
17-09-'100.460.48
18-09-'100.450.48
19-09-'100.470.48
20-09-'100.490.48
21-09-'100.500.48
22-09-'100.460.48
23-09-'100.490.48
24-09-'100.440.48
25-09-'100.480.48
26-09-'100.460.48
27-09-'100.470.48
28-09-'100.480.49
29-09-'100.480.49
30-09-'100.540.49
01-10-'100.500.49
02-10-'100.530.49
03-10-'100.470.49
04-10-'100.500.49
05-10-'100.450.49
06-10-'100.430.49
07-10-'100.490.49
08-10-'100.400.50
09-10-'100.370.50
10-10-'100.390.50
11-10-'100.510.50
12-10-'100.600.50
13-10-'100.540.50
14-10-'100.530.50
15-10-'100.510.50
16-10-'100.490.50
17-10-'100.490.51
18-10-'100.530.51
19-10-'100.500.51
20-10-'100.520.51
21-10-'100.540.51
22-10-'100.510.51
23-10-'100.500.51
24-10-'100.510.51
25-10-'100.540.51
26-10-'100.550.51
27-10-'100.570.52
28-10-'100.520.52
29-10-'100.500.52
30-10-'100.510.52
31-10-'100.540.52
01-11-'100.560.52
02-11-'100.560.52
03-11-'100.530.52
04-11-'100.540.52
05-11-'100.500.52
06-11-'100.490.52
07-11-'100.500.52
08-11-'100.520.52
09-11-'100.520.52
10-11-'100.560.52
11-11-'100.520.52
12-11-'100.500.52
13-11-'100.500.52
14-11-'100.520.52
15-11-'100.520.52
16-11-'100.550.52
17-11-'100.540.52
18-11-'100.530.52
19-11-'100.510.52
20-11-'100.510.52
21-11-'100.510.52
22-11-'100.530.52
23-11-'100.520.52
24-11-'100.520.52
25-11-'100.520.52
26-11-'100.510.52
27-11-'100.510.52
28-11-'100.500.52
29-11-'100.530.51
30-11-'100.530.51
01-12-'100.500.51
02-12-'100.550.51
03-12-'100.520.51
04-12-'100.510.51
05-12-'100.520.51
06-12-'100.510.51
07-12-'100.520.51
08-12-'100.490.51
09-12-'100.490.51
10-12-'100.510.51
11-12-'100.470.51
12-12-'100.540.51
13-12-'100.530.51
14-12-'100.520.51
15-12-'100.550.51
16-12-'100.510.51
17-12-'100.520.51
18-12-'100.480.51
19-12-'100.500.51
20-12-'100.500.51
21-12-'100.510.51
22-12-'100.470.51
23-12-'100.490.51
24-12-'100.470.51
25-12-'100.520.50
26-12-'100.510.50
27-12-'100.480.50
28-12-'100.490.50
29-12-'100.520.50
30-12-'100.530.50
31-12-'100.500.50
01-01-'110.500.50
02-01-'110.500.50
03-01-'110.500.50
04-01-'110.510.50
05-01-'110.560.50
06-01-'110.500.50
07-01-'110.500.50
08-01-'110.570.50
09-01-'110.500.50
10-01-'110.510.50
11-01-'110.520.50
12-01-'110.510.49
13-01-'110.500.49
14-01-'110.490.49
15-01-'110.480.49
16-01-'110.490.49
17-01-'110.490.49
18-01-'110.490.49
19-01-'110.500.49
20-01-'110.480.49
21-01-'110.470.49
22-01-'110.460.49
23-01-'110.490.49
24-01-'110.500.49
25-01-'110.490.49
26-01-'110.470.48
27-01-'110.500.48
28-01-'110.480.48
29-01-'110.460.48
30-01-'110.460.48
31-01-'110.460.48
01-02-'110.500.48
02-02-'110.490.47
03-02-'110.480.47
04-02-'110.460.47
05-02-'110.480.47
06-02-'110.480.47
07-02-'110.460.47
08-02-'110.460.46
09-02-'110.430.46
10-02-'110.490.46
11-02-'110.440.46
12-02-'110.440.46
13-02-'110.440.46
14-02-'110.470.46
15-02-'110.480.46
16-02-'110.460.46
17-02-'110.460.46
18-02-'110.460.46
19-02-'110.430.46
20-02-'110.440.46
21-02-'110.450.46
22-02-'110.460.46
23-02-'110.450.46
24-02-'110.460.46
25-02-'110.440.46
26-02-'110.440.46
27-02-'110.440.46
28-02-'110.480.46
01-03-'110.480.46
02-03-'110.470.46
03-03-'110.460.46
04-03-'110.440.46
05-03-'110.460.46
06-03-'110.470.46
07-03-'110.470.46
08-03-'110.470.46
09-03-'110.470.46
10-03-'110.470.46
11-03-'110.500.47
12-03-'110.460.47
13-03-'110.480.47
14-03-'110.490.47
15-03-'110.500.47
16-03-'110.470.47
17-03-'110.470.47
18-03-'110.470.47
19-03-'110.460.47
20-03-'110.460.47
21-03-'110.440.47
22-03-'110.450.47
23-03-'110.470.47
24-03-'110.470.47
25-03-'110.440.47
26-03-'110.480.47
27-03-'110.460.47
28-03-'110.480.47
29-03-'110.480.47
30-03-'110.500.47
31-03-'110.480.47
01-04-'110.450.47
02-04-'110.430.47
03-04-'110.460.47
04-04-'110.490.47
05-04-'110.510.47
06-04-'110.490.47
07-04-'110.470.47
08-04-'110.460.47
09-04-'110.710.47
10-04-'110.500.47
11-04-'110.520.47
12-04-'110.500.47
13-04-'110.530.47
14-04-'110.540.47
15-04-'110.450.47
16-04-'110.450.47
17-04-'110.480.47
18-04-'110.440.47
19-04-'110.460.47
20-04-'110.480.47
21-04-'110.450.47
22-04-'110.450.47
23-04-'110.490.47
24-04-'110.490.47
25-04-'110.480.47
26-04-'110.460.47
27-04-'110.450.47
28-04-'110.440.47
29-04-'110.400.47
30-04-'110.400.47
01-05-'110.440.47
02-05-'110.540.47
03-05-'110.430.47
04-05-'110.470.47
05-05-'110.440.47
06-05-'110.430.47
07-05-'110.420.47
08-05-'110.420.47
09-05-'110.450.47
10-05-'110.460.47
11-05-'110.490.47
12-05-'110.470.47
13-05-'110.490.47
14-05-'110.490.47
15-05-'110.500.47
16-05-'110.480.47
17-05-'110.480.48
18-05-'110.510.48
19-05-'110.480.48
20-05-'110.470.48
21-05-'110.460.48
22-05-'110.470.48
23-05-'110.510.48
24-05-'110.480.48
25-05-'110.470.48
26-05-'110.480.48
27-05-'110.460.48
28-05-'110.450.48
29-05-'110.460.48
30-05-'110.480.48
31-05-'110.490.48
01-06-'110.480.48
02-06-'110.470.48
03-06-'110.490.48
04-06-'110.490.48
05-06-'110.500.48
06-06-'110.460.48
07-06-'110.480.48
08-06-'110.500.48
09-06-'110.530.48
10-06-'110.500.48
11-06-'110.490.48
12-06-'110.500.48
13-06-'110.500.48
14-06-'110.510.48
15-06-'110.480.48
16-06-'110.480.48
17-06-'110.450.48
18-06-'110.490.48
19-06-'110.480.48
20-06-'110.480.48
21-06-'110.490.48
22-06-'110.480.48
23-06-'110.480.48
24-06-'110.450.48
25-06-'110.470.48
26-06-'110.470.48
27-06-'110.460.48
28-06-'110.520.48
29-06-'110.520.48
30-06-'110.460.48
01-07-'110.460.48
02-07-'110.450.48
03-07-'110.480.48
04-07-'110.460.49
05-07-'110.470.49
06-07-'110.510.49
07-07-'110.520.49
08-07-'110.470.49
09-07-'110.500.49
10-07-'110.520.49
11-07-'110.490.49
12-07-'110.500.49
13-07-'110.510.49
14-07-'110.470.49
15-07-'110.450.49
16-07-'110.470.49
17-07-'110.500.49
18-07-'110.470.49
19-07-'110.510.49
20-07-'110.490.49
21-07-'110.500.49
22-07-'110.500.49
23-07-'110.700.49
24-07-'110.560.49
25-07-'110.500.49
26-07-'110.490.49
27-07-'110.510.49
28-07-'110.490.49
29-07-'110.460.48
30-07-'110.470.48
31-07-'110.460.48
01-08-'110.510.48
02-08-'110.480.48
03-08-'110.480.48
04-08-'110.490.48
05-08-'110.480.48
06-08-'110.460.48
07-08-'110.490.48
08-08-'110.490.48
09-08-'110.570.48
10-08-'110.530.48
11-08-'110.520.48
12-08-'110.460.48
13-08-'110.480.48
14-08-'110.480.48
15-08-'110.450.48
16-08-'110.480.48
17-08-'110.470.48
18-08-'110.540.48
19-08-'110.500.48
20-08-'110.500.48
21-08-'110.470.48
22-08-'110.460.48
23-08-'110.510.48
24-08-'110.480.47
25-08-'110.460.47
26-08-'110.470.47
27-08-'110.460.47
28-08-'110.450.47
29-08-'110.450.47
30-08-'110.470.47
31-08-'110.450.47
01-09-'110.460.47
02-09-'110.420.47
03-09-'110.440.47
04-09-'110.480.47
05-09-'110.470.47
06-09-'110.450.47
07-09-'110.470.47
08-09-'110.480.47
09-09-'110.450.47
10-09-'110.460.47
11-09-'110.490.47
12-09-'110.480.47
13-09-'110.480.47
14-09-'110.470.47
15-09-'110.470.47
16-09-'110.460.47
17-09-'110.450.47
18-09-'110.480.47
19-09-'110.490.47
20-09-'110.490.47
21-09-'110.500.47
22-09-'110.520.47
23-09-'110.450.47
24-09-'110.420.47
25-09-'110.460.47
26-09-'110.480.47
27-09-'110.470.47
28-09-'110.470.47
29-09-'110.470.47
30-09-'110.470.47
01-10-'110.440.47
02-10-'110.460.47
03-10-'110.480.47
04-10-'110.480.47
05-10-'110.480.47
06-10-'110.490.47
07-10-'110.440.47
08-10-'110.450.47
09-10-'110.480.47
10-10-'110.510.47
11-10-'110.460.47
12-10-'110.460.47
13-10-'110.460.47
14-10-'110.430.47
15-10-'110.430.47
16-10-'110.440.47
17-10-'110.460.47
18-10-'110.470.47
19-10-'110.460.47
20-10-'110.480.47
21-10-'110.450.47
22-10-'110.480.47
23-10-'110.470.47
24-10-'110.510.47
25-10-'110.510.47
26-10-'110.500.47
27-10-'110.470.47
28-10-'110.450.47
29-10-'110.470.47
30-10-'110.500.47
31-10-'110.480.47
01-11-'110.510.47
02-11-'110.480.47
03-11-'110.460.47
04-11-'110.460.47
05-11-'110.440.47
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09-12-'180.89
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12-12-'181.09
13-12-'181.00
14-12-'180.83
15-12-'180.87

Increase in social tensions

The increase that is visible from December 2017 indicates a clear rise in tweets expressing feelings of tension and unrest. This trend continues in 2018. The key question is what caused this rise. In addition to this increase, there is a similar trend over the same period in the general sentiment of all Dutch-language tweets. This trend relates to the ratio of negative to positive posts on this social medium. Again beginning at the end of 2017, tweets expressing negative sentiment increase relative to tweets expressing positive sentiment. This shows that there is an increasingly negative atmosphere on Twitter in the Netherlands. However, the increase in tweets used for the social tensions indicator is greater than the increase in general negative sentiment. This discrepancy makes it clear that the feelings of unrest and tension on Twitter are indeed increasing, and that this is not the result of an overall increase in negative tweets. A follow-up analysis of the selected tweets reveals greater insights into the topics which are studied here and which cause social unrest.

Causes of the increase

Looking at the words used in the tweets, it is clear that from December 2017 the words ‘police’, ‘life’ and ‘problems’ (in Dutch: politie, leven and problemen) are used more frequently in combination with words specifically indicating social tensions. The most frequent combination of two words in the tweets is ‘our society’ (onze samenleving). This indicates an increase in tweets expressing concern about changes to society, which was confirmed by a manual check. Three peaks in 2018 illustrate this phenomenon. The first is the peak on 8 September 2018, which concerned negative reactions to plans to deport two Armenian teenagers. The second peak came on 17 November and was related to tweets about the riots during the celebrations at Sinterklaas, including the resurgence of the Zwarte Piet debate. The final peak is that of 4 December, which concerned unrest relating to the possible violation of privacy legislation by the intelligence services. Tweets referring to the ‘yellow jackets movement’ (gele hesjes beweging) began to appear in the last week of November 2018, but they did not cause the indicator to peak. Since 2008, the Netherlands Institute for Social Research (SCP) has reported a slight increase in the proportion of people who feel a strong sense of social unease. In 2017 the SCP reported that this proportion was around 10 per cent of people. Future research will focus both on improving the interpretation of the long-term trend and on the comparison with other kinds of sources that contain related information.

Privacy

The social tensions indicator was compiled using public tweets. These tweets are not linked to users, so CBS does not know who sent them; only the total number of tweets is presented. No selection of users has been made and both private and business users are included. Furthermore, the indicator does not include the text of any tweets. The analysis of the most commonly-used words studied only the texts of the tweets posted during the period in question. Moreover, all links and usernames were removed to prevent identification of the person who tweeted.

Applications

This indicator is based on daily data. In the future, it could be developed further into a (nearly) real-time indicator that can measure the level of social tension in the Netherlands by the minute. Policy-makers will then be able to take into account the mood in society as they respond to recent events and take appropriate measures. Social media posts can also provide insight into which important issues play a role in Dutch society and whether these issues vary per region. In addition, this indicator can be compared to other relevant developments such as the general feeling of safety or trust in other people.

We welcome your feedback

Please let us know your opinion on the new social tensions indicator by responding below. Is there anything that can be improved? Are there other applications that could produce interesting research using social media data?

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