Auteur: Jaap Walhout, Boris Brandhorst
Jaarlijkse Monitor Onderwijsachterstandenindicator, 2017-2022

3. Resultaten frequentieanalyses

In dit hoofdstuk bekijken we de frequentiedichtheid van de onderwijsscores uitgesplitst naar eindtoetsadvies en eindtoetsaanbieder en de verschillende modelvariabelen van de onderwijsachterstandenindicator. Daarnaast beoordelen we de frequentiedichtheid van de onderwijsscores naar de verschillende methoden van imputatie. 

3.1 Onderwijsscores per schooljaar naar eindtoetsadvies en eindtoetsaanbieder

De figuren 3.1.1 tot en met 3.1.15 geven de frequentiedichtheid weer van de onderwijsscores per eindtoetsadvies en eindtoetsaanbieder uitgesplitst naar schooljaar. Vanaf het schooljaar 2018/’19 hanteert elke eindtoets dezelfde indeling van mogelijke toetsadviezen. Met uitzondering van het vwo-advies betreft dit altijd gecombineerde adviezen. In dit hoofdstuk beschouwen we enkel toetsadviezen die in de sinds het schooljaar 2018/’19 gebruikte indeling zijn opgenomen, zodat we voor deze toetsadviezen de frequentiedichtheden tussen jaren met elkaar kunnen vergelijken.7) Door het verschil in indeling van toetsadviezen vóór het schooljaar 2018/’19 ten opzichte van die daarna, is de vergelijking van frequentiedichtheden voor toetsadviezen tussen deze perioden niet zuiver. Daardoor zijn de figuren voor toetsadviezen vóór 2018/’19 op veel minder onderwijsscores gebaseerd dan die daarna. 

De verwachting is dat kinderen met een lagere onderwijsscore gemiddeld een lager eindtoetsadvies hebben en dat kinderen met een hogere onderwijsscore gemiddeld een hoger eindtoetsadvies hebben. Daarnaast is de verwachting dat de verdeling stabiel is over de schooljaren en de verschillende type eindtoetsaanbieders heen.

De figuren 3.1.1 tot en met 3.1.15 laten zien dat de piek in de frequentiedichtheid stapsgewijs verschuift van links naar rechts met het stijgen van het eindtoetsadvies. Verder zien we dat het beeld ook stabiel is over de verschillende schooljaren. Dit is conform de verwachting. Wel lijkt er bij het vwo toetsadvies over de jaren heen een steeds grotere dichtheid rond een onderwijsscore van 538 te vallen. Daarnaast kunnen we uit deze figuren aflezen dat de frequentiedichtheden voor de drie grootste toetsaanbieders een vergelijkbaar beeld laten zien.

3.1.1 Onderwijsscore per schooljaar voor CET eindtoets en vmbo-b/k eindtoetsadvies
"Onderwijsscore""2016/'17" (Dichtheid)"2017/'18" (Dichtheid)"2018/'19" (Dichtheid)"2020/'21" (Dichtheid)"2021/'22, okt" (Dichtheid)"2021/'22, feb" (Dichtheid)
5240,000390,000160,000260,000450,000228e-05
524,037180,000410,000160,000280,000460,000228e-05
524,074360,000430,000180,000290,000480,000229e-05
524,111550,000450,000190,000310,000490,000211e-04
524,148730,000472e-040,000335e-040,000210,00011
524,185910,000490,000210,000350,000510,000210,00011
524,223090,000510,000230,000370,000522e-040,00012
524,260270,000520,000240,000390,000532e-040,00013
524,297460,000540,000260,000410,000540,000190,00014
524,334640,000550,000280,000430,000550,000190,00014
524,371820,000560,000290,000450,000560,000180,00015
524,4090,000570,000310,000480,000560,000180,00016
524,446180,000580,000335e-040,000570,000180,00016
524,483370,000590,000350,000530,000580,000170,00017
524,520556e-040,000370,000550,000590,000170,00017
524,557730,000614e-040,000586e-040,000170,00017
524,594910,000620,000420,000610,000610,000170,00018
524,632090,000630,000450,000640,000630,000170,00018
524,669280,000640,000480,000680,000650,000170,00018
524,706460,000650,000510,000710,000660,000180,00019
524,743640,000670,000540,000740,000680,000180,00019
524,780820,000680,000570,000780,000710,000190,00019
524,8187e-040,000610,000820,000742e-040,00019
524,855190,000720,000650,000860,000770,000222e-04
524,892370,000747e-049e-048e-040,000232e-04
524,929550,000770,000750,000950,000840,000250,00021
524,966730,000810,000810,0010,000880,000270,00022
525,003910,000840,000870,001050,000933e-040,00023
525,04110,000880,000940,00110,000980,000330,00024
525,078280,000930,001020,001160,001030,000360,00026
525,115460,000990,00110,001220,00114e-040,00028
525,152640,001050,001190,001280,001170,000450,00031
525,189820,001120,001290,001350,001245e-040,00034
525,227010,001190,00140,001430,001330,000560,00038
525,264190,001280,001520,001510,001420,000630,00043
525,301370,001370,001650,00160,001527e-040,00049
525,338550,001480,001790,001690,001630,000790,00055
525,375730,001590,001940,001790,001750,000880,00063
525,412920,001710,002110,00190,001890,000980,00072
525,45010,001850,002280,002020,002030,001090,00082
525,487280,001990,002470,002150,002190,001210,00094
525,524460,002150,002670,002280,002360,001350,00107
525,561640,002310,002880,002430,002550,001490,00122
525,598830,002490,003110,002590,002750,001650,00139
525,636010,002690,003350,002770,002970,001820,00158
525,673190,002890,00360,002960,003210,0020,00178
525,710370,003110,003860,003160,003460,00220,00201
525,747550,003340,004140,003390,003720,002410,00225
525,784740,003580,004430,003630,004010,002640,00251
525,821920,003830,004730,003890,004320,002880,0028
525,85910,00410,005040,004170,004650,003140,00311
525,896280,004390,005370,004480,004990,003410,00343
525,933460,004690,00570,004810,005350,003690,00378
525,970650,0050,006050,005170,005740,003990,00414
526,007830,005320,006410,005550,006140,004310,00451
526,045010,005660,006780,005960,006560,004640,0049
526,082190,006020,007160,00640,0070,004990,0053
526,119370,006390,007540,006870,007460,005350,00571
526,156560,006780,007940,007360,007940,005720,00612
526,193740,007180,008340,007890,008440,006110,00654
526,230920,00760,008750,008440,008950,006510,00696
526,26810,008030,009160,009010,009480,006920,00738
526,305280,008470,009580,009610,010020,007340,00779
526,342470,008930,010,010230,010580,007770,00819
526,379650,00940,010420,010860,011140,00820,00858
526,416830,009890,010840,011520,011720,008650,00895
526,454010,010380,011260,012180,012310,00910,00932
526,491190,010880,011670,012860,01290,009550,00966
526,528380,01140,012090,013540,01350,010010,00998
526,565560,011920,01250,014220,01410,010470,01029
526,602740,012450,01290,014910,01470,010940,01057
526,639920,012980,01330,01560,015310,01140,01084
526,67710,013520,01370,016280,015910,011870,01108
526,714290,014070,014090,016960,016520,012330,01131
526,751470,014620,014490,017640,017120,01280,01153
526,788650,015170,014880,018310,017710,013270,01173
526,825830,015740,015270,018980,018310,013750,01192
526,863010,01630,015670,019650,01890,014230,0121
526,90020,016880,016080,020320,019490,014720,01229
526,937380,017460,016490,020990,020080,015230,01247
526,974560,018050,016920,021660,020670,015740,01267
527,011740,018640,017360,022350,021260,016270,01287
527,048920,019260,017820,023050,021860,016820,0131
527,086110,019880,01830,023760,022460,017390,01334
527,123290,020520,018820,02450,023060,017990,01361
527,160470,021170,019360,025260,023680,018620,01392
527,197650,021850,019930,026050,024310,019270,01427
527,234830,022540,020540,026870,024950,019960,01466
527,272020,023250,021180,027720,025610,020680,01509
527,30920,023990,021860,028610,026280,021430,01558
527,346380,024740,022590,029540,026970,022230,01612
527,383560,025520,023350,03050,027690,023070,01671
527,420740,026320,024150,031490,028430,023940,01738
527,457930,027140,024990,032520,029190,024840,01811
527,495110,027980,025850,033570,029970,025780,01891
527,532290,028840,026760,034660,030770,026750,01976
527,569470,029720,02770,035760,03160,027750,02069
527,606650,030610,028660,036890,032450,028770,02167
527,643840,031510,029640,038020,033310,029820,02273
527,681020,032420,030630,039160,03420,030880,02385
527,71820,033330,031640,040310,035090,031950,02502
527,755380,034240,032660,041440,0360,033030,02625
527,792560,035150,033670,042570,036920,034110,02752
527,829750,036050,034690,043670,037850,035180,02884
527,866930,036940,035690,044750,038790,036250,03019
527,904110,037820,036680,045810,039720,037310,03157
527,941290,038680,037650,046830,040650,038350,03297
527,978470,039530,03860,047820,041580,039370,03438
528,015660,040350,039520,048770,042510,040370,0358
528,052840,041140,040420,049670,043430,041340,03721
528,090020,041910,041280,050540,044340,042280,03861
528,12720,042660,042120,051370,045240,04320,03998
528,164380,043380,042920,052160,046130,04410,04133
528,201570,044080,043690,052910,047010,044960,04263
528,238750,044750,044420,053620,047890,04580,0439
528,275930,045390,045110,05430,048750,046610,04513
528,313110,046020,045780,054950,049610,04740,04629
528,350290,046620,046410,055580,050460,048180,04739
528,387480,04720,047020,056190,05130,048930,04844
528,424660,047760,04760,056780,052140,049680,04943
528,461840,04830,048150,057350,052980,050410,05036
528,499020,048830,048670,057910,053820,051140,05124
528,53620,049350,049180,058470,054660,051860,05204
528,573390,049850,049660,059030,055510,052570,0528
528,610570,050340,050130,059580,056350,053290,0535
528,647750,050830,050580,060140,05720,054010,05416
528,684930,05130,051010,060710,058050,054730,05477
528,722110,051770,051430,061290,058910,055450,05534
528,75930,052220,051850,061870,059770,056180,05588
528,796480,052670,052250,062470,060630,056910,05639
528,833660,053110,052650,063080,06150,057630,05687
528,870840,053550,053050,063690,062360,058360,05733
528,908020,053970,053440,064330,063220,059090,05778
528,945210,054390,053840,064970,064080,059820,05822
528,982390,054790,054240,065630,064930,060540,05864
529,019570,055190,054650,06630,065770,061260,05907
529,056750,055580,055070,066970,066610,061970,05949
529,093930,055950,05550,067660,067430,062670,05992
529,131120,056330,055950,068370,068230,063370,06036
529,16830,056690,056430,069080,069020,064060,0608
529,205480,057050,056930,069810,06980,064740,06126
529,242660,05740,057450,070550,070550,065420,06174
529,279840,057760,058010,07130,071290,06610,06224
529,317030,058110,05860,072070,072020,066780,06276
529,354210,058480,059220,072850,072730,067460,06331
529,391390,058850,059890,073650,073420,068150,06389
529,428570,059240,060590,074460,07410,068850,06451
529,465750,059640,061340,075290,074770,069560,06517
529,502940,060070,062130,076140,075430,070290,06587
529,540120,060530,062950,077010,076080,071050,06662
529,57730,061010,063810,077890,076730,071840,06741
529,614480,061530,064710,07880,077380,072650,06826
529,651660,062080,065650,079720,078020,073490,06915
529,688850,062680,06660,080650,078660,074360,07011
529,726030,063310,067580,081590,079310,075270,07112
529,763210,063980,068570,082540,079950,07620,07219
529,800390,064690,069570,083490,08060,077170,0733
529,837570,065430,070580,084450,081240,078170,07446
529,874760,066210,071570,085390,081890,079180,07567
529,911940,067010,072540,086310,082530,080210,07693
529,949120,067840,073490,087220,083160,081240,07822
529,98630,068690,074410,08810,083780,082280,07953
530,023480,069540,075290,088950,084390,083310,08086
530,060670,07040,076110,089750,084980,084330,08221
530,097850,071250,076870,09050,085550,085310,08355
530,135030,072090,077570,091190,086090,086270,08487
530,172210,07290,078190,091820,08660,087180,08617
530,209390,073680,078740,092390,087070,088030,08743
530,246580,074410,079210,092880,087510,088820,08865
530,283760,075110,07960,09330,087910,089540,0898
530,320940,075750,079890,093630,088260,090180,09089
530,358120,076330,080090,093870,088560,090750,09188
530,39530,076840,080220,094040,088820,091230,09278
530,432490,077280,080270,094130,089030,091620,09358
530,469670,077640,080240,094130,08920,091920,09429
530,506850,077940,080140,094070,089330,092140,09488
530,544030,078180,079980,093910,089420,092270,09537
530,581210,078350,079760,09370,089470,092340,09574
530,61840,078450,079510,093430,08950,092340,096
530,655580,07850,079220,093110,089510,092270,09617
530,692760,07850,078920,092750,089520,092160,09624
530,729940,078470,078610,092360,089520,092010,09625
530,767120,078420,078320,091950,089530,091850,09618
530,804310,078350,078050,091530,089560,091670,09605
530,841490,078290,077820,091130,089630,09150,09589
530,878670,078250,077630,090740,089730,091360,09571
530,915850,078240,077510,090380,089880,091250,09553
530,953030,078280,077460,090070,090090,09120,09536
530,990220,078380,077510,089820,090360,09120,09522
531,02740,078550,077650,089640,090720,091270,09513
531,064580,07880,07790,089540,091170,091430,09511
531,101760,079140,078250,089520,09170,091690,09517
531,138940,079610,07870,089590,092310,092050,09531
531,176130,080180,079260,089750,093010,092510,09554
531,213310,080860,079950,090030,09380,093060,09587
531,250490,081650,080740,090410,094680,093710,09632
531,287670,082550,081640,09090,095640,094440,09687
531,324850,083550,082620,091470,096670,095280,09753
531,362040,084660,083680,092140,097750,096190,09828
531,399220,085860,084820,092890,098880,097160,09911
531,43640,087130,086020,093710,100040,098170,10001
531,473580,088460,087270,094610,101230,099220,10098
531,510760,089830,088550,095560,102420,100280,102
531,547950,091230,089840,096550,10360,101340,10305
531,585130,092650,091140,097560,104750,102380,10411
531,622310,094060,092430,098580,105860,103370,10516
531,659490,095450,09370,09960,106910,104320,1062
531,696670,096810,094930,100610,107890,10520,10719
531,733860,098110,096110,101580,108770,1060,10812
531,771040,099370,097240,102510,109560,106690,10899
531,808220,100550,098310,10340,110260,107280,10978
531,84540,101660,099320,104230,110840,107760,11048
531,882580,102680,100270,104990,111330,108140,11109
531,919770,103630,101140,105680,111690,10840,1116
531,956950,104510,101940,106290,111940,108560,112
531,994130,105310,102690,106840,112080,108590,11231
532,031310,106060,103390,107320,112140,108530,11254
532,068490,106740,104040,107730,112120,108390,11269
532,105680,107380,104660,108090,112020,108180,11276
532,142860,107990,105250,108390,111860,107910,11278
532,180040,108580,105820,108650,111660,107610,11275
532,217220,109180,10640,108880,111440,107270,1127
532,25440,109780,106990,109090,11120,106940,11264
532,291590,110410,10760,109290,110980,106630,11258
532,328770,111080,108240,10950,110780,106350,11253
532,365950,111810,108930,109720,110610,106110,11252
532,403130,11260,109680,109980,110520,105940,11256
532,440310,113460,110490,110270,110490,105870,11266
532,47750,114390,111370,110610,110530,105890,11283
532,514680,115420,112320,111010,110670,106010,11306
532,551860,116530,113360,111480,110890,106240,11337
532,589040,117740,114470,112010,111210,106580,11375
532,626220,119040,115680,112630,111650,107040,11422
532,663410,120420,116960,113320,112190,107630,11476
532,700590,121870,118310,114090,112820,108320,11537
532,737770,123380,119720,114920,113530,109110,11602
532,774950,124960,121190,115820,114320,109980,11673
532,812130,126580,12270,116780,115180,110930,11747
532,849320,128240,124250,117810,11610,111950,11823
532,88650,12990,125820,118870,117050,1130,119
532,923680,131560,127390,119970,118030,114080,11977
532,960860,133210,128950,121080,119010,115160,12051
532,998040,134820,130480,12220,119970,116220,12122
533,035230,136370,131970,123320,120920,117250,12188
533,072410,137850,133390,124420,12180,118210,12248
533,109590,139250,134730,125480,122620,119090,12301
533,146770,140540,135980,126490,123360,119870,12346
533,183950,141730,137120,127440,124010,120540,12384
533,221140,14280,138160,128330,124560,12110,12413
533,258320,143750,139070,129140,1250,121530,12433
533,29550,144520,139830,129850,125310,12180,12443
533,332680,145160,140440,130460,125480,121920,12444
533,369860,145660,140910,130970,125530,12190,12437
533,407050,146010,141240,131370,125460,121740,12423
533,444230,146230,141420,131670,125270,121450,12402
533,481410,146310,141480,131870,124970,121040,12375
533,518590,146230,141380,131950,124540,120490,12342
533,555770,146030,141140,131910,124020,119830,12304
533,592950,14570,140790,131780,123410,119080,12264
533,630140,145270,140340,131560,122730,118270,12221
533,667320,144750,139790,131250,121990,11740,12177
533,70450,144130,139150,130870,121210,116490,12132
533,741680,143440,138440,130410,120390,115550,12088
533,778860,142670,137660,129880,119560,114620,12044
533,816050,141850,136840,12930,118720,113690,12002
533,853230,140990,135980,128690,11790,11280,1196
533,890410,140090,135110,128040,11710,111940,1192
533,927590,139170,134220,127370,116320,111130,11881
533,964770,138240,133320,126680,115580,110390,11843
534,001960,137290,132440,125980,11490,109730,11805
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