A Comparison of Different Estimation Methods with an Application in the Dutch National Elections of 2003 and 2006

The estimation of changes in voting behaviour can be pursued in two ways, by modelling aggregated election results, and by means of recall data recorded in survey questionnaires. In an application of these methods for the Dutch national elections of 2003 and 2006, we show that the estimated voting transition estimated by survey techniques and model based techniques complement each other, improve the validity of the results, and provide a basis for new research.