Probabilistic population and household forecasts for the Netherlands

Maarten AldersPaper presented at the European Population Conference in the Hague, the Netherlands, 30 August - 3 September 1999.Abstract: Population forecasters have a long tradition of explicitly stating the uncertainty of their forecasts by means of specifying alternative variants. In addition to a medium variant, usually high and low variants are published. One problem in using high and low variants is that it is unknown how likely it is that the interval between these variants will cover the actual population size. Probabilistic population forecasts provide information about the probability that a specific forecast interval will cover the true future value.