Forecast: larger population due to migration

16/12/2022 15:00

The population of the Netherlands will continue to grow over the next five decades, to 20.7 million inhabitants in 2070. It is expected to reach 18 million by 2024 and cross the 19-million mark by 2034. Population growth will primarily be due to migration and increased longevity. By 2040, a quarter of the population will be 65 years old or older. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this today on the basis of the Population forecast for the period 2022–2070.

The population is expected to grow relatively quickly in the years ahead, but this growth will subsequently be slowing down. The Netherlands is on course to its 20 millionth inhabitant in 2056. The forecast describes the most likely population dynamics for the Netherlands. However, there are also uncertainties.

Population, 1 January
	Observation (x million)	Forecast 2021-2070 (x million)	Forecast 2022-2070 (x million)	Forecast interval (95%) (x million)	Forecast interval (67%) (x million)
1980	14.09
1981	14.21
1982	14.29
1983	14.34
1984	14.39
1985	14.45
1986	14.53
1987	14.62
1988	14.71
1989	14.81
1990	14.89
1991	15.01
1992	15.13
1993	15.24
1994	15.34
1995	15.42
1996	15.49
1997	15.57
1998	15.65
1999	15.76
2000	15.86
2001	15.99
2002	16.11
2003	16.19
2004	16.26
2005	16.31
2006	16.33
2007	16.36
2008	16.41
2009	16.49
2010	16.57
2011	16.66
2012	16.73
2013	16.78
2014	16.83
2015	16.90
2016	16.98
2017	17.08
2018	17.18
2019	17.28
2020	17.41
2021	17.48
2022	17.59	17.59
2023	17.82	17.74	17.82	17.76 – 17.89	17.79 – 17.85
2024		17.87	18.00	17.88 – 18.14	17.94 – 18.07
2025		17.98	18.13	17.94 – 18.33	18.04 – 18.23
2026		18.09	18.24	17.99 – 18.50	18.11 – 18.38
2027		18.19	18.33	18.03 – 18.65	18.17 – 18.49
2028		18.29	18.42	18.05 – 18.80	18.22 – 18.61
2029		18.39	18.51	18.07 – 18.95	18.28 – 18.73
2030		18.48	18.59	18.10 – 19.12	18.34 – 18.86
2031		18.57	18.68	18.11 – 19.29	18.39 – 18.98
2032		18.65	18.76	18.13 – 19.48	18.45 – 19.10
2033		18.74	18.85	18.16 – 19.65	18.49 – 19.22
2034		18.82	18.93	18.18 – 19.79	18.55 – 19.32
2035		18.89	19.01	18.17 – 19.93	18.59 – 19.42
2036		18.96	19.08	18.19 – 20.08	18.63 – 19.53
2037		19.03	19.15	18.20 – 20.25	18.67 – 19.65
2038		19.10	19.22	18.18 – 20.36	18.70 – 19.75
2039		19.15	19.29	18.17 – 20.49	18.73 – 19.87
2040		19.21	19.35	18.19 – 20.63	18.75 – 19.98
2041		19.26	19.40	18.19 – 20.79	18.77 – 20.06
2042		19.31	19.46	18.17 – 20.91	18.78 – 20.13
2043		19.36	19.51	18.14 – 21.05	18.79 – 20.21
2044		19.40	19.55	18.11 – 21.19	18.80 – 20.31
2045		19.45	19.60	18.11 – 21.32	18.81 – 20.40
2046		19.48	19.64	18.10 – 21.43	18.81 – 20.46
2047		19.52	19.68	18.09 – 21.56	18.82 – 20.54
2048		19.56	19.72	18.07 – 21.66	18.80 – 20.61
2049		19.59	19.75	18.02 – 21.76	18.80 – 20.67
2050		19.63	19.79	18.00 – 21.88	18.77 – 20.75
2051		19.66	19.82	17.98 – 21.99	18.76 – 20.83
2052		19.69	19.86	17.96 – 22.06	18.75 – 20.89
2053		19.73	19.89	17.92 – 22.15	18.76 – 20.95
2054		19.76	19.92	17.84 – 22.19	18.76 – 21.01
2055		19.80	19.95	17.77 – 22.24	18.75 – 21.09
2056		19.83	19.99	17.71 – 22.39	18.74 – 21.16
2057		19.87	20.03	17.67 – 22.51	18.75 – 21.27
2058		19.91	20.06	17.68 – 22.62	18.75 – 21.36
2059		19.95	20.10	17.67 – 22.72	18.77 – 21.43
2060		20.00	20.15	17.66 – 22.81	18.79 – 21.50
2061		20.05	20.20	17.62 – 22.89	18.80 – 21.57
2062		20.10	20.25	17.60 – 23.01	18.79 – 21.64
2063		20.15	20.30	17.58 – 23.20	18.83 – 21.74
2064		20.21	20.36	17.59 – 23.33	18.84 – 21.81
2065		20.27	20.42	17.56 – 23.45	18.85 – 21.90
2066		20.33	20.48	17.52 – 23.60	18.87 – 21.98
2067		20.40	20.54	17.53 – 23.76	18.91 – 22.04
2068		20.46	20.61	17.48 – 23.91	18.93 – 22.15
2069		20.53	20.68	17.50 – 24.04	18.96 – 22.27
2070		20.60	20.75	17.50 – 24.20	19.02 – 22.37

Population, 1 January
	Observation (x million)	Forecast 2021-2070 (x million)	Forecast 2022-2070 (x million)	Forecast interval (95%) (x million)	Forecast interval (67%) (x million)
1980	14.09
1981	14.21
1982	14.29
1983	14.34
1984	14.39
1985	14.45
1986	14.53
1987	14.62
1988	14.71
1989	14.81
1990	14.89
1991	15.01
1992	15.13
1993	15.24
1994	15.34
1995	15.42
1996	15.49
1997	15.57
1998	15.65
1999	15.76
2000	15.86
2001	15.99
2002	16.11
2003	16.19
2004	16.26
2005	16.31
2006	16.33
2007	16.36
2008	16.41
2009	16.49
2010	16.57
2011	16.66
2012	16.73
2013	16.78
2014	16.83
2015	16.90
2016	16.98
2017	17.08
2018	17.18
2019	17.28
2020	17.41
2021	17.48
2022	17.59	17.59
2023	17.82	17.74	17.82	17.76 – 17.89	17.79 – 17.85
2024		17.87	18.00	17.88 – 18.14	17.94 – 18.07
2025		17.98	18.13	17.94 – 18.33	18.04 – 18.23
2026		18.09	18.24	17.99 – 18.50	18.11 – 18.38
2027		18.19	18.33	18.03 – 18.65	18.17 – 18.49
2028		18.29	18.42	18.05 – 18.80	18.22 – 18.61
2029		18.39	18.51	18.07 – 18.95	18.28 – 18.73
2030		18.48	18.59	18.10 – 19.12	18.34 – 18.86
2031		18.57	18.68	18.11 – 19.29	18.39 – 18.98
2032		18.65	18.76	18.13 – 19.48	18.45 – 19.10
2033		18.74	18.85	18.16 – 19.65	18.49 – 19.22
2034		18.82	18.93	18.18 – 19.79	18.55 – 19.32
2035		18.89	19.01	18.17 – 19.93	18.59 – 19.42
2036		18.96	19.08	18.19 – 20.08	18.63 – 19.53
2037		19.03	19.15	18.20 – 20.25	18.67 – 19.65
2038		19.10	19.22	18.18 – 20.36	18.70 – 19.75
2039		19.15	19.29	18.17 – 20.49	18.73 – 19.87
2040		19.21	19.35	18.19 – 20.63	18.75 – 19.98
2041		19.26	19.40	18.19 – 20.79	18.77 – 20.06
2042		19.31	19.46	18.17 – 20.91	18.78 – 20.13
2043		19.36	19.51	18.14 – 21.05	18.79 – 20.21
2044		19.40	19.55	18.11 – 21.19	18.80 – 20.31
2045		19.45	19.60	18.11 – 21.32	18.81 – 20.40
2046		19.48	19.64	18.10 – 21.43	18.81 – 20.46
2047		19.52	19.68	18.09 – 21.56	18.82 – 20.54
2048		19.56	19.72	18.07 – 21.66	18.80 – 20.61
2049		19.59	19.75	18.02 – 21.76	18.80 – 20.67
2050		19.63	19.79	18.00 – 21.88	18.77 – 20.75
2051		19.66	19.82	17.98 – 21.99	18.76 – 20.83
2052		19.69	19.86	17.96 – 22.06	18.75 – 20.89
2053		19.73	19.89	17.92 – 22.15	18.76 – 20.95
2054		19.76	19.92	17.84 – 22.19	18.76 – 21.01
2055		19.80	19.95	17.77 – 22.24	18.75 – 21.09
2056		19.83	19.99	17.71 – 22.39	18.74 – 21.16
2057		19.87	20.03	17.67 – 22.51	18.75 – 21.27
2058		19.91	20.06	17.68 – 22.62	18.75 – 21.36
2059		19.95	20.10	17.67 – 22.72	18.77 – 21.43
2060		20.00	20.15	17.66 – 22.81	18.79 – 21.50
2061		20.05	20.20	17.62 – 22.89	18.80 – 21.57
2062		20.10	20.25	17.60 – 23.01	18.79 – 21.64
2063		20.15	20.30	17.58 – 23.20	18.83 – 21.74
2064		20.21	20.36	17.59 – 23.33	18.84 – 21.81
2065		20.27	20.42	17.56 – 23.45	18.85 – 21.90
2066		20.33	20.48	17.52 – 23.60	18.87 – 21.98
2067		20.40	20.54	17.53 – 23.76	18.91 – 22.04
2068		20.46	20.61	17.48 – 23.91	18.93 – 22.15
2069		20.53	20.68	17.50 – 24.04	18.96 – 22.27
2070		20.60	20.75	17.50 – 24.20	19.02 – 22.37

Population growth mainly due to migration

The Dutch population will have added 227 thousand people in 2022. This is 111 thousand more than in 2021. Population growth will slow down again over the next five years, with less than 100 thousand a year expected from 2026 onwards.
In recent years, population growth has mainly been due to foreign net migration. In 2022, slightly over 400 thousand people immigrated to the Netherlands, over a quarter of them from Ukraine. Foreign net migration will also be driving population growth in the future, according to the forecast.
Foreign net migration picked up again in 2021 and 2022 after a decline in 2020, with rising numbers of immigrants and fewer emigrants. Immigration is expected to slow down over the years ahead, while emigration is expected to rise further as some of the immigrants will leave again after a few years.

Increasing lifespan

Over the next few years, the population is projected to grow not only because more people will immigrate than emigrate but also because births will exceed deaths. In addition, the average lifespan will continue to increase. Mortality has been higher since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. It will decline again in the coming years as fewer people are expected to die due to COVID-19. An ageing population means that the number of deaths will gradually increase again from 2025 onwards.

The number of children born annually declined in 2022. It is expected to increase again in the coming years, but that number will not be enough in the long run to compensate for the rising number of deaths. Based on current insights, there will be more deaths than births among the population every year between 2040 and 2060. This will cause the population to grow more slowly during that period.

Population dynamics per year
	Live births (x 1 000)	Deaths (x 1 000)	Immigration (x 1 000)	Emigration incl. balance of administrative adjustments (x 1 000)	Population growth (x 1 000)	Live births, forecast (x 1 000)	Deaths, forecast (x 1 000)	Immigration, forecast (x 1 000)	Emigration incl. balance of administrative adjustments, forecast (x 1 000)	Population growth, forecast (x 1 000)
2000	206.6	140.5	132.9	79.0	120.0
2001	202.6	140.4	133.4	82.6	113.1
2002	202.1	142.4	121.3	96.9	84.1
2003	200.3	141.9	104.5	104.8	58.0
2004	194.0	136.6	94.0	110.2	41.2
2005	187.9	136.4	92.3	119.7	24.1
2006	185.1	135.4	101.2	132.5	18.4
2007	181.3	133.0	116.8	122.6	42.6
2008	184.6	135.1	143.5	117.8	75.2
2009	184.9	134.2	146.4	111.9	85.2
2010	184.4	136.1	154.4	121.4	81.4
2011	180.1	135.7	163.0	133.2	74.1
2012	176.0	140.8	158.4	144.5	49.0
2013	171.3	141.2	164.8	145.7	49.2
2014	175.2	139.2	182.9	147.9	71.0
2015	170.5	147.1	204.6	149.5	78.5
2016	172.5	149.0	230.7	151.5	102.7
2017	169.8	150.2	235.0	154.3	100.3
2018	168.5	153.4	243.7	157.4	101.5
2019	169.7	151.9	269.1	161.0	125.8
2020	168.7	168.7	220.9	152.5	68.4
2021	179.4	171.0	252.5	145.3	115.7
2022	167.9	169.4	402.5	174.4	226.6	167.9	169.4	402.5	174.4	226.6
2023						173.8	163.5	365.6	194.2	181.7
2024						181.5	161.9	321.7	210.1	131.2
2025						187.5	162.3	309.4	223.9	110.6
2026						190.9	163.8	296.0	233.4	89.6
2027						193.5	165.8	297.2	237.2	87.6
2028						196.0	167.9	298.6	238.7	87.9
2029						199.2	170.6	298.1	239.6	87.1
2030						201.9	173.2	296.8	239.8	85.6
2031						203.9	175.9	296.3	239.8	84.5
2032						205.6	178.6	295.6	239.8	82.8
2033						207.0	181.3	294.9	239.7	80.9
2034						207.8	183.9	294.1	239.5	78.5
2035						207.8	186.4	294.1	239.5	76.0
2036						207.0	188.8	293.9	239.6	72.6
2037						205.6	191.0	293.8	239.8	68.6
2038						204.0	193.2	293.6	239.9	64.5
2039						202.4	195.1	293.4	240.0	60.7
2040						200.7	196.9	293.2	240.1	56.9
2041						198.9	198.5	293.0	240.2	53.2
2042						197.2	200.0	293.0	240.3	49.9
2043						195.7	201.3	293.0	240.5	46.9
2044						194.4	202.5	293.0	240.7	44.2
2045						193.3	203.6	293.0	240.9	41.8
2046						192.4	204.6	293.0	241.2	39.7
2047						191.6	205.5	293.0	241.4	37.8
2048						191.1	206.4	293.1	241.6	36.2
2049						190.8	207.4	293.1	241.9	34.7
2050						190.8	208.3	293.2	242.1	33.7
2051						191.1	209.1	293.3	242.4	32.9
2052						191.7	209.8	293.4	242.7	32.5
2053						192.6	210.4	293.5	243.0	32.7
2054						193.8	210.8	293.6	243.2	33.4
2055						195.3	211.0	293.7	243.5	34.6
2056						197.1	210.9	293.8	243.7	36.3
2057						199.1	210.6	293.9	243.9	38.5
2058						201.2	210.0	294.0	244.1	41.1
2059						203.3	209.2	294.1	244.2	43.9
2060						205.4	208.1	294.2	244.4	47.1
2061						207.3	206.8	294.3	244.5	50.3
2062						209.1	205.2	294.4	244.7	53.6
2063						210.6	203.6	294.5	244.8	56.7
2064						211.9	201.8	294.6	244.9	59.7
2065						212.8	200.0	294.7	245.0	62.5
2066						213.5	198.2	294.8	245.1	64.9
2067						213.9	196.5	294.8	245.2	67.0
2068						214.0	195.0	294.9	245.3	68.6
2069						213.9	193.6	295.0	245.4	69.9
2070						213.6	192.6	295.0	245.6	70.5

Population dynamics per year
	Live births (x 1 000)	Deaths (x 1 000)	Immigration (x 1 000)	Emigration incl. balance of administrative adjustments (x 1 000)	Population growth (x 1 000)	Live births, forecast (x 1 000)	Deaths, forecast (x 1 000)	Immigration, forecast (x 1 000)	Emigration incl. balance of administrative adjustments, forecast (x 1 000)	Population growth, forecast (x 1 000)
2000	206.6	140.5	132.9	79.0	120.0
2001	202.6	140.4	133.4	82.6	113.1
2002	202.1	142.4	121.3	96.9	84.1
2003	200.3	141.9	104.5	104.8	58.0
2004	194.0	136.6	94.0	110.2	41.2
2005	187.9	136.4	92.3	119.7	24.1
2006	185.1	135.4	101.2	132.5	18.4
2007	181.3	133.0	116.8	122.6	42.6
2008	184.6	135.1	143.5	117.8	75.2
2009	184.9	134.2	146.4	111.9	85.2
2010	184.4	136.1	154.4	121.4	81.4
2011	180.1	135.7	163.0	133.2	74.1
2012	176.0	140.8	158.4	144.5	49.0
2013	171.3	141.2	164.8	145.7	49.2
2014	175.2	139.2	182.9	147.9	71.0
2015	170.5	147.1	204.6	149.5	78.5
2016	172.5	149.0	230.7	151.5	102.7
2017	169.8	150.2	235.0	154.3	100.3
2018	168.5	153.4	243.7	157.4	101.5
2019	169.7	151.9	269.1	161.0	125.8
2020	168.7	168.7	220.9	152.5	68.4
2021	179.4	171.0	252.5	145.3	115.7
2022	167.9	169.4	402.5	174.4	226.6	167.9	169.4	402.5	174.4	226.6
2023						173.8	163.5	365.6	194.2	181.7
2024						181.5	161.9	321.7	210.1	131.2
2025						187.5	162.3	309.4	223.9	110.6
2026						190.9	163.8	296.0	233.4	89.6
2027						193.5	165.8	297.2	237.2	87.6
2028						196.0	167.9	298.6	238.7	87.9
2029						199.2	170.6	298.1	239.6	87.1
2030						201.9	173.2	296.8	239.8	85.6
2031						203.9	175.9	296.3	239.8	84.5
2032						205.6	178.6	295.6	239.8	82.8
2033						207.0	181.3	294.9	239.7	80.9
2034						207.8	183.9	294.1	239.5	78.5
2035						207.8	186.4	294.1	239.5	76.0
2036						207.0	188.8	293.9	239.6	72.6
2037						205.6	191.0	293.8	239.8	68.6
2038						204.0	193.2	293.6	239.9	64.5
2039						202.4	195.1	293.4	240.0	60.7
2040						200.7	196.9	293.2	240.1	56.9
2041						198.9	198.5	293.0	240.2	53.2
2042						197.2	200.0	293.0	240.3	49.9
2043						195.7	201.3	293.0	240.5	46.9
2044						194.4	202.5	293.0	240.7	44.2
2045						193.3	203.6	293.0	240.9	41.8
2046						192.4	204.6	293.0	241.2	39.7
2047						191.6	205.5	293.0	241.4	37.8
2048						191.1	206.4	293.1	241.6	36.2
2049						190.8	207.4	293.1	241.9	34.7
2050						190.8	208.3	293.2	242.1	33.7
2051						191.1	209.1	293.3	242.4	32.9
2052						191.7	209.8	293.4	242.7	32.5
2053						192.6	210.4	293.5	243.0	32.7
2054						193.8	210.8	293.6	243.2	33.4
2055						195.3	211.0	293.7	243.5	34.6
2056						197.1	210.9	293.8	243.7	36.3
2057						199.1	210.6	293.9	243.9	38.5
2058						201.2	210.0	294.0	244.1	41.1
2059						203.3	209.2	294.1	244.2	43.9
2060						205.4	208.1	294.2	244.4	47.1
2061						207.3	206.8	294.3	244.5	50.3
2062						209.1	205.2	294.4	244.7	53.6
2063						210.6	203.6	294.5	244.8	56.7
2064						211.9	201.8	294.6	244.9	59.7
2065						212.8	200.0	294.7	245.0	62.5
2066						213.5	198.2	294.8	245.1	64.9
2067						213.9	196.5	294.8	245.2	67.0
2068						214.0	195.0	294.9	245.3	68.6
2069						213.9	193.6	295.0	245.4	69.9
2070						213.6	192.6	295.0	245.6	70.5

Quarter of population 65 years or older by 2040

The share of over-65s in the population will rise from 20 percent at the end of 2022 to 25 percent by around 2040. Contributors to this growth are the post-war baby boom and the higher birth rates in the 1960s, combined with an increasing lifespan. The elderly population is expected to stabilise between 2040 and 2050; by then, smaller cohorts will be turning 65 and many elderlies from post-war generations will pass away. The number of elderly people is projected to rise again beyond 2050, partly on account of the large generation of millennials turning 65.

The number of over-80s is projected to double in the next two decades, from 0.9 million at the end 2022 to 1.7 million in 2043. According to the forecast, the number will then go up to 2.1 million at the most around 2054.

Fewer people under 65

The number of 20 to 64-year-olds is expected to increase from 10.5 million at the end of 2022 to 10.6 million by around 2026. It will then decrease to 10.4 million in 2038, followed by another increase to 11.0 million by 2070. The share of this age group in the population will decline from 59 percent at the end of 2021 to 53 percent by 2070.

The number of 0- to 19-year-olds will show gradual growth over the coming years, from around 3.7 million at the end of 2022 to 4.2 million around 2047. By 2070, this age group will have increased to 4.3 million following a relative decline. The share of young people in the total population will remain constant at around 21 percent.

Population by age group, 1 January
yrs	0 to 20 yrs (x million)	20 to 65 yrs (x million)	65 to 80 yrs (x million)	80 yrs and over (x million)	0 to 20 yrs, forecast (x million)	20 to 65 yrs, forecast (x million)	65 to 80 yrs, forecast (x million)	80 yrs and over, forecast (x million)
1950	3.74	5.51	0.67	0.10
1951	3.81	5.60	0.69	0.10
1952	3.85	5.66	0.71	0.11
1953	3.89	5.70	0.73	0.11
1954	3.95	5.74	0.75	0.12
1955	4.00	5.79	0.77	0.12
1956	4.06	5.85	0.78	0.13
1957	4.12	5.90	0.80	0.14
1958	4.19	5.95	0.82	0.14
1959	4.27	6.02	0.84	0.15
1960	4.33	6.07	0.86	0.15
1961	4.39	6.12	0.89	0.16
1962	4.46	6.18	0.91	0.17
1963	4.53	6.25	0.93	0.17
1964	4.58	6.33	0.96	0.18
1965	4.63	6.42	0.98	0.19
1966	4.69	6.50	1.00	0.19
1967	4.66	6.66	1.02	0.20
1968	4.64	6.77	1.04	0.21
1969	4.64	6.88	1.07	0.22
1970	4.66	6.99	1.09	0.22
1971	4.68	7.10	1.11	0.23
1972	4.69	7.21	1.13	0.24
1973	4.69	7.30	1.15	0.24
1974	4.67	7.39	1.18	0.25
1975	4.65	7.49	1.20	0.26
1976	4.62	7.62	1.22	0.27
1977	4.58	7.72	1.24	0.28
1978	4.53	7.82	1.26	0.29
1979	4.48	7.93	1.28	0.30
1980	4.43	8.04	1.30	0.31
1981	4.40	8.17	1.32	0.32
1982	4.33	8.29	1.33	0.34
1983	4.25	8.40	1.34	0.35
1984	4.17	8.52	1.35	0.36
1985	4.08	8.64	1.36	0.37
1986	4.02	8.74	1.39	0.38
1987	3.97	8.84	1.41	0.39
1988	3.92	8.95	1.43	0.41
1989	3.87	9.05	1.46	0.42
1990	3.82	9.16	1.48	0.43
1991	3.79	9.29	1.50	0.44
1992	3.76	9.41	1.52	0.44
1993	3.75	9.51	1.53	0.46
1994	3.75	9.58	1.54	0.46
1995	3.76	9.63	1.56	0.48
1996	3.77	9.66	1.58	0.48
1997	3.79	9.70	1.60	0.49
1998	3.81	9.74	1.62	0.49
1999	3.84	9.79	1.63	0.50
2000	3.87	9.84	1.65	0.50
2001	3.91	9.90	1.66	0.52
2002	3.94	9.97	1.67	0.53
2003	3.97	10.00	1.68	0.54
2004	3.99	10.02	1.69	0.56
2005	3.99	10.03	1.72	0.57
2006	3.98	10.03	1.74	0.59
2007	3.96	10.03	1.77	0.60
2008	3.94	10.05	1.80	0.62
2009	3.93	10.08	1.84	0.63
2010	3.93	10.11	1.89	0.65
2011	3.91	10.15	1.93	0.67
2012	3.89	10.12	2.03	0.69
2013	3.87	10.08	2.12	0.70
2014	3.85	10.06	2.20	0.72
2015	3.83	10.06	2.27	0.73
2016	3.82	10.08	2.34	0.75
2017	3.82	10.10	2.40	0.76
2018	3.81	10.13	2.46	0.78
2019	3.79	10.18	2.52	0.80
2020	3.78	10.24	2.57	0.82
2021	3.74	10.27	2.62	0.84
2022	3.74	10.33	2.67	0.85
2023					3.76	10.46	2.73	0.87
2024					3.76	10.56	2.78	0.90
2025					3.75	10.60	2.83	0.94
2026					3.76	10.62	2.89	0.97
2027					3.76	10.62	2.91	1.05
2028					3.77	10.61	2.93	1.11
2029					3.78	10.59	2.96	1.17
2030					3.79	10.58	3.01	1.22
2031					3.80	10.57	3.05	1.26
2032					3.83	10.55	3.09	1.30
2033					3.85	10.54	3.12	1.34
2034					3.88	10.51	3.16	1.37
2035					3.91	10.48	3.20	1.41
2036					3.95	10.45	3.24	1.45
2037					3.98	10.44	3.26	1.48
2038					4.01	10.43	3.27	1.52
2039					4.04	10.43	3.25	1.56
2040					4.07	10.44	3.23	1.60
2041					4.10	10.46	3.20	1.64
2042					4.12	10.49	3.16	1.68
2043					4.15	10.51	3.12	1.72
2044					4.17	10.53	3.08	1.77
2045					4.18	10.56	3.04	1.81
2046					4.19	10.59	3.01	1.85
2047					4.19	10.62	2.98	1.89
2048					4.19	10.66	2.95	1.92
2049					4.19	10.70	2.92	1.95
2050					4.18	10.74	2.88	1.99
2051					4.17	10.77	2.85	2.03
2052					4.16	10.81	2.84	2.05
2053					4.14	10.84	2.84	2.07
2054					4.13	10.87	2.85	2.07
2055					4.12	10.90	2.88	2.06
2056					4.11	10.92	2.91	2.05
2057					4.10	10.95	2.95	2.03
2058					4.09	10.96	2.99	2.02
2059					4.09	10.98	3.02	2.01
2060					4.09	11.00	3.06	2.00
2061					4.10	11.02	3.08	2.00
2062					4.11	11.04	3.10	1.99
2063					4.12	11.06	3.13	1.99
2064					4.14	11.06	3.17	1.99
2065					4.15	11.06	3.21	1.99
2066					4.18	11.05	3.25	2.00
2067					4.20	11.04	3.29	2.02
2068					4.22	11.04	3.32	2.04
2069					4.24	11.01	3.36	2.06
2070					4.27	11.01	3.38	2.09

Population by age group, 1 January
yrs	0 to 20 yrs (x million)	20 to 65 yrs (x million)	65 to 80 yrs (x million)	80 yrs and over (x million)	0 to 20 yrs, forecast (x million)	20 to 65 yrs, forecast (x million)	65 to 80 yrs, forecast (x million)	80 yrs and over, forecast (x million)
1950	3.74	5.51	0.67	0.10
1951	3.81	5.60	0.69	0.10
1952	3.85	5.66	0.71	0.11
1953	3.89	5.70	0.73	0.11
1954	3.95	5.74	0.75	0.12
1955	4.00	5.79	0.77	0.12
1956	4.06	5.85	0.78	0.13
1957	4.12	5.90	0.80	0.14
1958	4.19	5.95	0.82	0.14
1959	4.27	6.02	0.84	0.15
1960	4.33	6.07	0.86	0.15
1961	4.39	6.12	0.89	0.16
1962	4.46	6.18	0.91	0.17
1963	4.53	6.25	0.93	0.17
1964	4.58	6.33	0.96	0.18
1965	4.63	6.42	0.98	0.19
1966	4.69	6.50	1.00	0.19
1967	4.66	6.66	1.02	0.20
1968	4.64	6.77	1.04	0.21
1969	4.64	6.88	1.07	0.22
1970	4.66	6.99	1.09	0.22
1971	4.68	7.10	1.11	0.23
1972	4.69	7.21	1.13	0.24
1973	4.69	7.30	1.15	0.24
1974	4.67	7.39	1.18	0.25
1975	4.65	7.49	1.20	0.26
1976	4.62	7.62	1.22	0.27
1977	4.58	7.72	1.24	0.28
1978	4.53	7.82	1.26	0.29
1979	4.48	7.93	1.28	0.30
1980	4.43	8.04	1.30	0.31
1981	4.40	8.17	1.32	0.32
1982	4.33	8.29	1.33	0.34
1983	4.25	8.40	1.34	0.35
1984	4.17	8.52	1.35	0.36
1985	4.08	8.64	1.36	0.37
1986	4.02	8.74	1.39	0.38
1987	3.97	8.84	1.41	0.39
1988	3.92	8.95	1.43	0.41
1989	3.87	9.05	1.46	0.42
1990	3.82	9.16	1.48	0.43
1991	3.79	9.29	1.50	0.44
1992	3.76	9.41	1.52	0.44
1993	3.75	9.51	1.53	0.46
1994	3.75	9.58	1.54	0.46
1995	3.76	9.63	1.56	0.48
1996	3.77	9.66	1.58	0.48
1997	3.79	9.70	1.60	0.49
1998	3.81	9.74	1.62	0.49
1999	3.84	9.79	1.63	0.50
2000	3.87	9.84	1.65	0.50
2001	3.91	9.90	1.66	0.52
2002	3.94	9.97	1.67	0.53
2003	3.97	10.00	1.68	0.54
2004	3.99	10.02	1.69	0.56
2005	3.99	10.03	1.72	0.57
2006	3.98	10.03	1.74	0.59
2007	3.96	10.03	1.77	0.60
2008	3.94	10.05	1.80	0.62
2009	3.93	10.08	1.84	0.63
2010	3.93	10.11	1.89	0.65
2011	3.91	10.15	1.93	0.67
2012	3.89	10.12	2.03	0.69
2013	3.87	10.08	2.12	0.70
2014	3.85	10.06	2.20	0.72
2015	3.83	10.06	2.27	0.73
2016	3.82	10.08	2.34	0.75
2017	3.82	10.10	2.40	0.76
2018	3.81	10.13	2.46	0.78
2019	3.79	10.18	2.52	0.80
2020	3.78	10.24	2.57	0.82
2021	3.74	10.27	2.62	0.84
2022	3.74	10.33	2.67	0.85
2023					3.76	10.46	2.73	0.87
2024					3.76	10.56	2.78	0.90
2025					3.75	10.60	2.83	0.94
2026					3.76	10.62	2.89	0.97
2027					3.76	10.62	2.91	1.05
2028					3.77	10.61	2.93	1.11
2029					3.78	10.59	2.96	1.17
2030					3.79	10.58	3.01	1.22
2031					3.80	10.57	3.05	1.26
2032					3.83	10.55	3.09	1.30
2033					3.85	10.54	3.12	1.34
2034					3.88	10.51	3.16	1.37
2035					3.91	10.48	3.20	1.41
2036					3.95	10.45	3.24	1.45
2037					3.98	10.44	3.26	1.48
2038					4.01	10.43	3.27	1.52
2039					4.04	10.43	3.25	1.56
2040					4.07	10.44	3.23	1.60
2041					4.10	10.46	3.20	1.64
2042					4.12	10.49	3.16	1.68
2043					4.15	10.51	3.12	1.72
2044					4.17	10.53	3.08	1.77
2045					4.18	10.56	3.04	1.81
2046					4.19	10.59	3.01	1.85
2047					4.19	10.62	2.98	1.89
2048					4.19	10.66	2.95	1.92
2049					4.19	10.70	2.92	1.95
2050					4.18	10.74	2.88	1.99
2051					4.17	10.77	2.85	2.03
2052					4.16	10.81	2.84	2.05
2053					4.14	10.84	2.84	2.07
2054					4.13	10.87	2.85	2.07
2055					4.12	10.90	2.88	2.06
2056					4.11	10.92	2.91	2.05
2057					4.10	10.95	2.95	2.03
2058					4.09	10.96	2.99	2.02
2059					4.09	10.98	3.02	2.01
2060					4.09	11.00	3.06	2.00
2061					4.10	11.02	3.08	2.00
2062					4.11	11.04	3.10	1.99
2063					4.12	11.06	3.13	1.99
2064					4.14	11.06	3.17	1.99
2065					4.15	11.06	3.21	1.99
2066					4.18	11.05	3.25	2.00
2067					4.20	11.04	3.29	2.02
2068					4.22	11.04	3.32	2.04
2069					4.24	11.01	3.36	2.06
2070					4.27	11.01	3.38	2.09

More inhabitants than in previous forecast

The population forecast is adjusted annually, taking into account the most recent developments and latest insights. Compared to last year’s forecast, mainly short-term adjustments have been made, due to the rise in immigration and in mortality and the declines in births and emigration. As a result of these adjustments, the current forecast projects a larger population (150 thousand more people) by the year 2070 than the previous forecast.

Most likely development and uncertainties

In calculating this forecast of population dynamics, CBS uses a simulation model which is based on assumptions regarding future births, deaths, immigration and emigration. The forecast figures are shrouded in uncertainty, however. For example, migration may fluctuate sharply from year to year. It is also uncertain whether the average lifespan will continue to rise at the same pace and whether Dutch households will keep their preference for having two children. Moreover, it is uncertain how long the war in Ukraine will last, and whether the coronavirus epidemic will also have long-term effects on population developments. In all likelihood, by 2070 the Dutch population will be somewhere between 19.0 and 22.4 million.

Sources

StatLine - Key figures of the population forecasts 2022-2070