Population forecast
What does the research entail?
Target
The population forecasts aim to describe the most likely future development of the Dutch population. Three long-term forecasts are made: the Population Forecast, the Key Population Forecast and the Household Forecast.
The Population Forecast concerns the size and composition of the Dutch population up to 2070. The population count (number of inhabitants by age, sex and migration background) relates to January 1st of the forecast year. The demographic events (birth, death, immigration, emigration) relate to the development during the forecast year. The Key Population Forecast only concerns the population count and demographic events (birth, death, immigration and emigration) by age and sex. The Household Forecast describes the development of the number of households by type (one-person households, couples, single parent household, etc.) and of the number of inhabitants by household position (single, child living at home, etc.). Both households and individuals are further differentiated by age and marital status.
Between 2005 and 2022, CBS in collaboration with the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) also made a Regional Forecast for the medium-term. This forecast provided numbers of inhabitants and households per municipality and was a regionalized re-calculation of the national Population and Household Forecast of CBS. In order to publish a next reliable Regional Forecast, a big investment in a new modelling system was required that was impossible to make. Therefore, PBL and CBS have decided to stop making the Regional Forecast.
Target population
The forecasts describe the ‘de jure’ population of the Netherlands. These are the persons who are included in the municipal personal records databases.
Statistical unit
Persons, households.
Starting date/year of survey
The first Population Forecast appeared in 1950.
Frequency
- Population Forecast: every three years.
- Household Forecast: every three years.
- Key Population Forecast: twice every three years.
Publication strategy
In December, a new Population Forecast appears. One year later in December the Key Population Forecast and Household Forecast appear simultaneously. In December of the next year follows another Key Population Forecast.
The Key Population Forecast is an adjustment of the Population Forecast, in which the short-term assumptions are adjusted based on new observations of the subsequent year. This Key Forecast only concerns number of inhabitants by age and sex.
How is the research conducted
Type of research
Forecast
Based on analyses of demographic developments, assumptions are made about future trends concerning births, deaths, migration and transitions in household position (divorces, leaving home, etc.). The consequences of the assumptions are calculated in a forecast model.
Observation method
Not applicable.
Respondents
Not applicable.
Sample size
Not applicable.
Checking and correction methods
Forecast figures are checked for internal consistency, for a plausible development in relation to the observations and adherence to the assumptions.
Weighting
Not applicable.
What is the quality of the results?
Accuracy
95% and 67% confidence intervals are published alongside the forecasts. The intervals give an impression of the expected accuracy of the forecast.
Sequential comparability
Data within one forecast are sequentially comparable in the sense that they are calculated based on the same assumptions. Data for the same forecast year but from different forecasts differ because the figures are calculated with different assumptions and based on different available input data.
Description of quality strategy
The results of the latest forecast are tested annually against new developments. For each new forecast, the assumptions are reviewed and adjusted if necessary. The assumptions are discussed with an advisory committee consisting of independent external experts (the demographic platform).