Forecast: population growth picks up again

The population of the Netherlands is expected to grow relatively quickly over the next few years, but the growth rate will slow down after that. The 20 millionth inhabitant is expected to arrive in 2060. The forecast describes the most likely development of the Dutch population. It also holds uncertainties, as explained in the last paragraph below.

Population growth mainly due to migration

For 2021, population growth is estimated at 118 thousand persons. This is 50 thousand more than in 2020, when the population increase nearly halved as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. In 2019, the number of new inhabitants stood at 125 thousand. Over the coming five years, the population is expected to grow by more than 100 thousand annually.

In recent years, population growth has mainly been due to foreign net migration. It is expected that immigration will exceed emigration in the future as well. After a drop in 2020, foreign net migration picked up again this year; immigration was higher while emigration was lower. For the coming years, immigration is expected to increase further. The number of emigrants is expected to pick up again as well as some of the immigrants will leave again after a few years.

Increasing lifespan

Over the next few years, the population is projected to grow not only because more people will immigrate than emigrate but also because births will exceed deaths. The lifespan is expected to increase further. Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, more people have died than before the pandemic. However, mortality will decline again in the coming years as fewer people are expected to die of COVID-19. Due to an ageing population, the number of deaths will gradually increase after that.

The number of live births has risen in 2021. This number is expected to increase in the coming years as well, but it will not be enough to compensate for the rising number of deaths in the long run. Based on current insights, there will be more deaths than births among the population every year between 2040 and 2060. This means that the population growth rate will be lower during this period.

One-quarter of the population 65 years or older by 2040

The share of over-65s in the population will rise from 20 percent at the end of 2021 to 25 percent by around 2040. Contributors to this growth are the post-war baby boom and the higher birth rates in the 1960s, combined with the increasing life expectancy. The elderly population is expected to stabilise between 2040 and 2050; by then, smaller cohorts will be turning 65 and many elderly from post-war generations will pass away. The number of elderly is projected to rise again beyond 2050, partly on account of the large generation of millennials turning 65.

The number of over-80s is projected to double in the next two decades, from 0.9 million at the end 2021 to 1.7 million in 2043. According to the forecast, the number will then go up to 2.1 million at the most around 2053.

Share of working-age population declines

The number of 20 to 64-year-olds is expected to increase from 10.3 million at the end of 2021 to 10.5 million by around 2026. It will then decrease to 10.3 million in 2038, followed by another increase to 10.9 million by 2070. The share of this age group in the population will decline from 59 percent at the end of 2021 to 53 percent by 2070.

Over the next few years, the number of 0 to 19-year-olds is likely to stay around 3.7 million. A subsequent increase is expected to a total of 4.3 million by 2070. The share of young people in the population will remain at around 21 percent.

More inhabitants than in previous forecast

Population forecasts are adjusted on an annual basis, taking into account the latest developments and new insights. Compared to the forecast made in 2020, there are mainly short-term adjustments due to lower emigration and higher birth rates. As a result of the adjustments, the current forecast projects a higher number of inhabitants for the year 2070 than the previous forecast (+176 thousand).

Most likely development and uncertainties

In order to forecast the future development of the Dutch population, CBS uses a simulation model which uses assumptions regarding births, deaths, immigration and emigration as the basis for projections. The forecast figures are subject to uncertainties. For example, the number of migrants can fluctuate sharply from year to year. It is also uncertain whether the average lifespan will continue to rise at the same pace and whether Dutch households will keep their preference for having two children. Moreover, it is uncertain whether the coronavirus epidemic will have a long-term impact on population dynamics. In all likelihood, the population will be somewhere between 18.8 and 22.2 million by 2070.