Almost 4 thousand deaths in week 51

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© Hollandse Hoogte / David Rozing
The total number of deaths in week 51 (14 - 20 December inclusive) is estimated at almost 4 thousand. This is nearly 400 more than in the previous week, when there were 3,580 deaths, and 800 more than normally expected for week 51. Overall mortality this year up to week 51 inclusive stands at over 162 thousand deaths. This is 13 thousand more than expected. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this based on the provisional weekly mortality figures.

Weekly mortality has been higher than expected since week 39. In the first thirteen weeks of the second epidemic wave (weeks 39 to 51 inclusive), altogether 6.1 thousand more deaths were recorded than would normally be expected in this period. During the first wave, from week 11 to week 19 inclusive, the estimated number of excess deaths stood at almost 9 thousand. Excess mortality was also recorded during the heatwave in weeks 33 and 34. In the remaining weeks of 2020, mortality fell below the expected level. On balance, this results in 13 thousand excess deaths over the entire period up to and including week 51.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 DeathsEstimated mortalityEstimated mortality (95% interval)
1310332772908 – 3645
2336533112930 – 3692
3315733442945 – 3742
4304633923008 – 3776
5316334073027 – 3788
6319434012979 – 3823
7319934082916 – 3901
8295933872851 – 3922
9309833522805 – 3898
10310633152785 – 3845
11321932532756 – 3751
12361531742711 – 3637
13445931042703 – 3505
14508430242712 – 3337
15498029572719 – 3195
16430629152711 – 3120
17390728692677 – 3060
18337928412650 – 3032
19298628212633 – 3009
20277527942626 – 2962
21277127702620 – 2920
22272827532608 – 2898
23268227352591 – 2880
24269227372600 – 2875
25269427252594 – 2855
26266027172577 – 2857
27263927232544 – 2902
28261927192515 – 2923
29252827202507 – 2934
30267327072515 – 2900
31266826872492 – 2882
32264026822483 – 2881
33320926692481 – 2857
34285426632510 – 2815
35273226672526 – 2807
36269026762549 – 2804
37273926982564 – 2832
38271927292585 – 2873
39289127522618 – 2886
40299727862628 – 2943
41301928072655 – 2960
42321728392677 – 3001
43344828622661 – 3063
44367628892683 – 3095
45358729022692 – 3111
46356629322710 – 3155
47332429722742 – 3202
48339330122762 – 3263
49351230372742 – 3332
50358031002800 – 3399
51395931662830 – 3501
5232222871 – 3573
* Provisional figures. Week 51 is an estimate.

Mortality further up among long-term care users

Based on the estimated mortality for week 51, mortality rose further among people receiving care under the Long-term care Act (Wlz), such as nursing home residents. There were altogether nearly 1,650 deaths among long-term care users in week 51. This is 450 (37 percent) more than expected mortality in this group. Among the rest of the population, there were almost 2,350 deaths, also representing an increase on week 50, Namely 350 more deaths than expected.
In the first 13 weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 to 51 inclusive) there were almost 2.9 thousand more deaths among long-term care users than normally expected for this period. During the first wave (weeks 11 to 19 inclusive), the estimated excess mortality in this group stood at 5.2 thousand.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 Long-term care (Wlz) users, deathsLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortalityLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95% interval)Other population, deathsOther population, estimated mortalityOther population, estimated mortality (95% interval)
1121012521052 – 1451189320251780 – 2270
2126512721076 – 1468210020391793 – 2285
3113512821086 – 1478202220621805 – 2319
4112513011113 – 1489192120911842 – 2339
5109813101118 – 1503206520971853 – 2341
6114213091099 – 1519205220921826 – 2358
7115513091069 – 1549204420991796 – 2403
8112912961044 – 1549183020911762 – 2419
9119512761005 – 1546190320761756 – 2396
1011641260989 – 1531194220561752 – 2359
1112001229950 – 1507201920251741 – 2308
1213351191928 – 1454228019831714 – 2252
1316561156912 – 1400280319481715 – 2180
1422121120915 – 1326287219041709 – 2100
1524091091910 – 1273257118661709 – 2022
1620661075912 – 1238224018401691 – 1990
1717161055898 – 1211219118141663 – 1965
1814291048900 – 1195195017931643 – 1944
1911861038897 – 1179180017831631 – 1935
2010311029902 – 1155174417651615 – 1915
2110691015892 – 1138170217551615 – 1895
2210041007887 – 1127172417461602 – 1890
23909995886 – 1104177317401585 – 1895
24958997888 – 1106173417401592 – 1889
25912989879 – 1099178217361585 – 1886
26940985864 – 1107172017321585 – 1879
27931992850 – 1134170817311567 – 1896
28911998849 – 1147170817211552 – 1890
299001003855 – 1152162817171555 – 1879
309571004854 – 1154171617041553 – 1855
31946997851 – 1143172216901540 – 1840
32904993846 – 1140173616901546 – 1834
331311987840 – 1134189816821531 – 1832
341113980849 – 1111174116831553 – 1813
35995974860 – 1087173716931550 – 1835
36942973860 – 1087174817031562 – 1844
37942977865 – 1089179717211579 – 1862
38980989876 – 1102173917401594 – 1886
3910541001892 – 1110183717511606 – 1896
4010761015897 – 1133192117711632 – 1909
4110901028908 – 1147192917801638 – 1922
4212161042910 – 1175200117971663 – 1930
4313171054912 – 1195213118081650 – 1966
4415201068920 – 1215215618211662 – 1981
4513901074925 – 1224219718271664 – 1991
4614211086936 – 1235214518461678 – 2014
4712861102953 – 1252203818701684 – 2056
4812861121964 – 1278210718921702 – 2081
4912851135970 – 1300222719011683 – 2120
5014441163996 – 1329213619371721 – 2153
51163311931019 – 1368232619721739 – 2205
5212231035 – 141019991763 – 2236
* Provisional figures. Week 51 is an estimate.

Rising mortality among both male and female population

In week 51 and relative to the previous week, the number of deaths rose more sharply among women than among men. Mortality was virtually equal among both sexes.

Earlier in the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic, mortality was relatively higher among men, even though the elderly population comprises more women than men. During the first wave (weeks 11 to 19 inclusive), mortality was relatively higher among men as well: 38 percent male excess mortality against 29 percent female excess mortality.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 Population 0 to 65 yrs, deathsPopulation 0 to 65 yrs, estimated mortalityPopulation 0 to 65 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval)Population 65 to 80 yrs, deathsPopulation 65 to 80 yrs, estimated mortalityPopulation 65 to 80 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval)Population 80 yrs and over, deathsPopulation 80 yrs and over, estimated mortalityPopulation 80 yrs and over, estimated mortality (95% interval)
1385415374 – 456896947852 – 1041182219181632 – 2204
2432413371 – 456967944851 – 1038196619571650 – 2263
3418415371 – 460913944851 – 1038182619881657 – 2319
4352417374 – 459936949856 – 1043175820301701 – 2360
5449417375 – 460924956857 – 1056179020391717 – 2360
6401417371 – 463981957843 – 1071181220321691 – 2373
7409420374 – 466938961832 – 1091185220321649 – 2415
8340420374 – 467870961815 – 1108174920091600 – 2418
9404420370 – 470911951805 – 1096178319841574 – 2394
10394417370 – 464889944804 – 1085182319571557 – 2357
11410415367 – 463949932803 – 1062186019091537 – 2281
12450410364 – 4561079917796 – 1039208618491503 – 2195
13502407366 – 4481402907806 – 1008255517911486 – 2097
14498401357 – 4441503889806 – 972308317351490 – 1981
15483394355 – 4321436876809 – 942306116881496 – 1880
16426389350 – 4271233867799 – 935264716601505 – 1815
17454383341 – 4251154857787 – 926229916301490 – 1769
18444381342 – 419999847779 – 916193616131472 – 1755
19390380339 – 420914845777 – 912168215971458 – 1735
20374378339 – 418833834768 – 901156815811460 – 1703
21369377335 – 419805832766 – 898159715601459 – 1661
22368376330 – 422858830764 – 895150215471451 – 1643
23385378335 – 421836827767 – 887146115291425 – 1634
24407383340 – 425836829770 – 888144915251431 – 1619
25375382341 – 423856827765 – 889146315141427 – 1601
26382384342 – 426828825763 – 887145015071407 – 1606
27403385342 – 428809829764 – 894142715071375 – 1639
28389386347 – 424813830760 – 899141715011352 – 1650
29372389351 – 426775830762 – 899138114991337 – 1661
30408387349 – 425821828759 – 896144414911343 – 1639
31376383347 – 419842824752 – 896145014781334 – 1622
32419384345 – 423820829755 – 904140114671318 – 1615
33463382345 – 418928826749 – 904181814591325 – 1592
34416382342 – 422862829756 – 901157614501346 – 1554
35352384338 – 429863831761 – 900151714501354 – 1546
36414385339 – 431828833766 – 900144814561373 – 1538
37394390343 – 437895839773 – 905145014661383 – 1548
38393397350 – 445844850777 – 923148214791390 – 1568
39394396346 – 447879855785 – 924161814981416 – 1580
40434400348 – 453913865789 – 941165015181416 – 1620
41378400354 – 447989868785 – 950165215371436 – 1638
42432405360 – 449983872788 – 956180215601446 – 1674
43425406362 – 4501078878787 – 969194515761438 – 1713
44406403360 – 4471164888798 – 979210615951443 – 1748
45433403362 – 4431110890807 – 973204416071441 – 1774
46429408369 – 4461056898814 – 982208116251449 – 1801
47413411376 – 4471080913829 – 996183116471468 – 1826
48430414377 – 4501079925845 – 1005188416731482 – 1863
49443411373 – 4501100933843 – 1022196916921481 – 1903
50450413374 – 4511097938853 – 1023203317491525 – 1973
51476416378 – 4541232941848 – 1034225118091563 – 2056
52415375 – 455944849 – 103918651598 – 2132
* Provisional figures. Week 51 is an estimate.

Elevated mortality across the ages

In week 51, mortality went up further among all age groups. In the group aged 80 years and over, there were an estimated 2,250 deaths, which is 450 more than expected. Among the population aged 65 to 79 years, mortality stood at almost 1,250 (i.e. almost 300 excess deaths); among the population aged under 65, mortality was almost 500 (i.e. more than 50 excess deaths). Relatively the highest excess mortality was seen in the age group 65 to 79 years, namely 31 percent.

COVID-19 mortality known up to June inclusive

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on the number of reported deaths received every day by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a lager stage via death cause certificates. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including June 2020. According to these figures, just over 10,000 people died of COVID-19 between March and June 2020, as published by CBS on 1 October. Excess mortality over this period is therefore entirely attributable to mortality due to the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual death count related to COVID-19 is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 and registration sometimes takes a little longer.
Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,182 COVID-19 deaths. In weeks 39 through 51, RIVM registered 4,229 COVID-19 deaths. This includes 365 deaths reported in week 51 (as at 22 December 2020). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period.

Estimate for week 51

The figures for week 51 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records received by CBS. On Friday 8 January, CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 51. The figures will be more complete by then.

 

Sources

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