Mortality not rising further

16/10/2020 15:00

More recent figures are available on this topic. View the latest figures here.

The estimated number of deaths in week 41 (5 to 11 October inclusive) stands at 2,950. This is slightly below the previous week, when there were 2,977 deaths. Mortality is therefore slightly elevated in week 41 with approximately 150 more deaths recorded than normally expected in this period. The elevated mortality coincides with the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic in the Netherlands. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this based on preliminary weekly mortality rates.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
	Deaths	Estimated mortality	Estimated mortality (95% interval)
1	3103	3277	2908 – 3645
2	3364	3311	2930 – 3692
3	3157	3344	2945 – 3742
4	3046	3392	3008 – 3776
5	3162	3407	3027 – 3788
6	3193	3401	2979 – 3823
7	3198	3408	2916 – 3901
8	2959	3387	2851 – 3922
9	3097	3352	2805 – 3898
10	3104	3315	2785 – 3845
11	3217	3253	2756 – 3751
12	3615	3174	2711 – 3637
13	4459	3104	2703 – 3505
14	5084	3024	2712 – 3337
15	4979	2957	2719 – 3195
16	4303	2915	2711 – 3120
17	3907	2869	2677 – 3060
18	3378	2841	2650 – 3032
19	2986	2821	2633 – 3009
20	2774	2794	2626 – 2962
21	2770	2770	2620 – 2920
22	2726	2753	2608 – 2898
23	2682	2735	2591 – 2880
24	2691	2737	2600 – 2875
25	2693	2725	2594 – 2855
26	2659	2717	2577 – 2857
27	2636	2723	2544 – 2902
28	2618	2719	2515 – 2923
29	2526	2720	2507 – 2934
30	2672	2707	2515 – 2900
31	2658	2687	2492 – 2882
32	2637	2682	2483 – 2881
33	3204	2669	2481 – 2857
34	2843	2663	2510 – 2815
35	2730	2667	2526 – 2807
36	2679	2676	2549 – 2804
37	2730	2698	2564 – 2832
38	2705	2729	2585 – 2873
39	2878	2752	2618 – 2886
40	2977	2786	2628 – 2943
41	2959	2807	2655 – 2960
42		2839	2677 – 3001
43		2862	2661 – 3063
44		2889	2683 – 3095
45		2902	2692 – 3111
46		2932	2710 – 3155
47		2972	2742 – 3202
48		3012	2762 – 3263
49		3037	2742 – 3332
50		3100	2800 – 3399
51		3166	2830 – 3501
52		3222	2871 – 3573
* Provisional figures. Week 41 is an estimate.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
	Deaths	Estimated mortality	Estimated mortality (95% interval)
1	3103	3277	2908 – 3645
2	3364	3311	2930 – 3692
3	3157	3344	2945 – 3742
4	3046	3392	3008 – 3776
5	3162	3407	3027 – 3788
6	3193	3401	2979 – 3823
7	3198	3408	2916 – 3901
8	2959	3387	2851 – 3922
9	3097	3352	2805 – 3898
10	3104	3315	2785 – 3845
11	3217	3253	2756 – 3751
12	3615	3174	2711 – 3637
13	4459	3104	2703 – 3505
14	5084	3024	2712 – 3337
15	4979	2957	2719 – 3195
16	4303	2915	2711 – 3120
17	3907	2869	2677 – 3060
18	3378	2841	2650 – 3032
19	2986	2821	2633 – 3009
20	2774	2794	2626 – 2962
21	2770	2770	2620 – 2920
22	2726	2753	2608 – 2898
23	2682	2735	2591 – 2880
24	2691	2737	2600 – 2875
25	2693	2725	2594 – 2855
26	2659	2717	2577 – 2857
27	2636	2723	2544 – 2902
28	2618	2719	2515 – 2923
29	2526	2720	2507 – 2934
30	2672	2707	2515 – 2900
31	2658	2687	2492 – 2882
32	2637	2682	2483 – 2881
33	3204	2669	2481 – 2857
34	2843	2663	2510 – 2815
35	2730	2667	2526 – 2807
36	2679	2676	2549 – 2804
37	2730	2698	2564 – 2832
38	2705	2729	2585 – 2873
39	2878	2752	2618 – 2886
40	2977	2786	2628 – 2943
41	2959	2807	2655 – 2960
42		2839	2677 – 3001
43		2862	2661 – 3063
44		2889	2683 – 3095
45		2902	2692 – 3111
46		2932	2710 – 3155
47		2972	2742 – 3202
48		3012	2762 – 3263
49		3037	2742 – 3332
50		3100	2800 – 3399
51		3166	2830 – 3501
52		3222	2871 – 3573
* Provisional figures. Week 41 is an estimate.

No further rise among long-term care users nor among rest of the population

In week 40, the increase in mortality was slightly slower among people receiving care under the Long-term care Act (Wlz), such as nursing home residents than among the rest of the population. Based on the new estimate, it appears there was no further increase in mortality over week 41 among these care users, nor among the rest of the population.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
	Long-term care (Wlz) users, deaths	Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality	Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95% interval)	Other population, deaths	Other population, estimated mortality	Other population, estimated mortality (95% interval)
1	1210	1252	1052 – 1451	1893	2025	1780 – 2270
2	1265	1272	1076 – 1468	2099	2039	1793 – 2285
3	1135	1282	1086 – 1478	2022	2062	1805 – 2319
4	1125	1301	1113 – 1489	1921	2091	1842 – 2339
5	1098	1310	1118 – 1503	2064	2097	1853 – 2341
6	1142	1309	1099 – 1519	2051	2092	1826 – 2358
7	1155	1309	1069 – 1549	2043	2099	1796 – 2403
8	1129	1296	1044 – 1549	1830	2091	1762 – 2419
9	1195	1276	1005 – 1546	1902	2076	1756 – 2396
10	1164	1260	989 – 1531	1940	2056	1752 – 2359
11	1200	1229	950 – 1507	2017	2025	1741 – 2308
12	1335	1191	928 – 1454	2280	1983	1714 – 2252
13	1656	1156	912 – 1400	2803	1948	1715 – 2180
14	2212	1120	915 – 1326	2872	1904	1709 – 2100
15	2409	1091	910 – 1273	2570	1866	1709 – 2022
16	2066	1075	912 – 1238	2237	1840	1691 – 1990
17	1716	1055	898 – 1211	2191	1814	1663 – 1965
18	1429	1048	900 – 1195	1949	1793	1643 – 1944
19	1186	1038	897 – 1179	1800	1783	1631 – 1935
20	1031	1029	902 – 1155	1743	1765	1615 – 1915
21	1069	1015	892 – 1138	1701	1755	1615 – 1895
22	1004	1007	887 – 1127	1722	1746	1602 – 1890
23	909	995	886 – 1104	1773	1740	1585 – 1895
24	958	997	888 – 1106	1733	1740	1592 – 1889
25	912	989	879 – 1099	1781	1736	1585 – 1886
26	940	985	864 – 1107	1719	1732	1585 – 1879
27	931	992	850 – 1134	1705	1731	1567 – 1896
28	911	998	849 – 1147	1707	1721	1552 – 1890
29	900	1003	855 – 1152	1626	1717	1555 – 1879
30	957	1004	854 – 1154	1715	1704	1553 – 1855
31	946	997	851 – 1143	1712	1690	1540 – 1840
32	904	993	846 – 1140	1733	1690	1546 – 1834
33	1311	987	840 – 1134	1893	1682	1531 – 1832
34	1113	980	849 – 1111	1730	1683	1553 – 1813
35	994	974	860 – 1087	1736	1693	1550 – 1835
36	942	973	860 – 1087	1737	1703	1562 – 1844
37	942	977	865 – 1089	1788	1721	1579 – 1862
38	979	989	876 – 1102	1726	1740	1594 – 1886
39	1053	1001	892 – 1110	1825	1751	1606 – 1896
40	1075	1015	897 – 1133	1902	1771	1632 – 1909
41	1066	1028	908 – 1147	1893	1780	1638 – 1922
42		1042	910 – 1175		1797	1663 – 1930
43		1054	912 – 1195		1808	1650 – 1966
44		1068	920 – 1215		1821	1662 – 1981
45		1074	925 – 1224		1827	1664 – 1991
46		1086	936 – 1235		1846	1678 – 2014
47		1102	953 – 1252		1870	1684 – 2056
48		1121	964 – 1278		1892	1702 – 2081
49		1135	970 – 1300		1901	1683 – 2120
50		1163	996 – 1329		1937	1721 – 2153
51		1193	1019 – 1368		1972	1739 – 2205
52		1223	1035 – 1410		1999	1763 – 2236
* Provisional figures. Week 40 is an estimate.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
	Long-term care (Wlz) users, deaths	Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality	Long-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95% interval)	Other population, deaths	Other population, estimated mortality	Other population, estimated mortality (95% interval)
1	1210	1252	1052 – 1451	1893	2025	1780 – 2270
2	1265	1272	1076 – 1468	2099	2039	1793 – 2285
3	1135	1282	1086 – 1478	2022	2062	1805 – 2319
4	1125	1301	1113 – 1489	1921	2091	1842 – 2339
5	1098	1310	1118 – 1503	2064	2097	1853 – 2341
6	1142	1309	1099 – 1519	2051	2092	1826 – 2358
7	1155	1309	1069 – 1549	2043	2099	1796 – 2403
8	1129	1296	1044 – 1549	1830	2091	1762 – 2419
9	1195	1276	1005 – 1546	1902	2076	1756 – 2396
10	1164	1260	989 – 1531	1940	2056	1752 – 2359
11	1200	1229	950 – 1507	2017	2025	1741 – 2308
12	1335	1191	928 – 1454	2280	1983	1714 – 2252
13	1656	1156	912 – 1400	2803	1948	1715 – 2180
14	2212	1120	915 – 1326	2872	1904	1709 – 2100
15	2409	1091	910 – 1273	2570	1866	1709 – 2022
16	2066	1075	912 – 1238	2237	1840	1691 – 1990
17	1716	1055	898 – 1211	2191	1814	1663 – 1965
18	1429	1048	900 – 1195	1949	1793	1643 – 1944
19	1186	1038	897 – 1179	1800	1783	1631 – 1935
20	1031	1029	902 – 1155	1743	1765	1615 – 1915
21	1069	1015	892 – 1138	1701	1755	1615 – 1895
22	1004	1007	887 – 1127	1722	1746	1602 – 1890
23	909	995	886 – 1104	1773	1740	1585 – 1895
24	958	997	888 – 1106	1733	1740	1592 – 1889
25	912	989	879 – 1099	1781	1736	1585 – 1886
26	940	985	864 – 1107	1719	1732	1585 – 1879
27	931	992	850 – 1134	1705	1731	1567 – 1896
28	911	998	849 – 1147	1707	1721	1552 – 1890
29	900	1003	855 – 1152	1626	1717	1555 – 1879
30	957	1004	854 – 1154	1715	1704	1553 – 1855
31	946	997	851 – 1143	1712	1690	1540 – 1840
32	904	993	846 – 1140	1733	1690	1546 – 1834
33	1311	987	840 – 1134	1893	1682	1531 – 1832
34	1113	980	849 – 1111	1730	1683	1553 – 1813
35	994	974	860 – 1087	1736	1693	1550 – 1835
36	942	973	860 – 1087	1737	1703	1562 – 1844
37	942	977	865 – 1089	1788	1721	1579 – 1862
38	979	989	876 – 1102	1726	1740	1594 – 1886
39	1053	1001	892 – 1110	1825	1751	1606 – 1896
40	1075	1015	897 – 1133	1902	1771	1632 – 1909
41	1066	1028	908 – 1147	1893	1780	1638 – 1922
42		1042	910 – 1175		1797	1663 – 1930
43		1054	912 – 1195		1808	1650 – 1966
44		1068	920 – 1215		1821	1662 – 1981
45		1074	925 – 1224		1827	1664 – 1991
46		1086	936 – 1235		1846	1678 – 2014
47		1102	953 – 1252		1870	1684 – 2056
48		1121	964 – 1278		1892	1702 – 2081
49		1135	970 – 1300		1901	1683 – 2120
50		1163	996 – 1329		1937	1721 – 2153
51		1193	1019 – 1368		1972	1739 – 2205
52		1223	1035 – 1410		1999	1763 – 2236
* Provisional figures. Week 40 is an estimate.

Mortality higher than expected as of week 39

With the exception of elevated mortality in weeks 33 and 34 during the heat wave, the average weekly death count has been slightly below the levels that would be expected if there had not been a coronavirus pandemic. Prior to this, mortality was elevated for nine consecutive weeks due to the pandemic. During the first wave of the epidemic in the Netherlands, 10 thousand people died from either confirmed or suspected COVID-19.

For week 41 (as at 13 October), the municipal health services (GGD) have reported 109 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). In week 39, the number stood at 81 and in week 40 at 101. As possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, and registration sometimes takes slightly longer, the actual death count related to COVID-19 is likely to turn out higher.

More details next Friday

The figures over week 41 are estimates, based on 84 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 41 on Friday 23 October. * The figures will be more complete by then.

Sources

StatLine - Deaths registered weekly, by sex and age

No further rise among long-term care users nor among rest of the population

Mortality higher than expected as of week 39

More details next Friday

Sources

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