Mortality not rising further

© Hollandse Hoogte / Robin Utrecht
The estimated number of deaths in week 41 (5 to 11 October inclusive) stands at 2,950. This is slightly below the previous week, when there were 2,977 deaths. Mortality is therefore slightly elevated in week 41 with approximately 150 more deaths recorded than normally expected in this period. The elevated mortality coincides with the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic in the Netherlands. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this based on preliminary weekly mortality rates.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 DeathsEstimated mortalityEstimated mortality (95% interval)
1310332772908 – 3645
2336433112930 – 3692
3315733442945 – 3742
4304633923008 – 3776
5316234073027 – 3788
6319334012979 – 3823
7319834082916 – 3901
8295933872851 – 3922
9309733522805 – 3898
10310433152785 – 3845
11321732532756 – 3751
12361531742711 – 3637
13445931042703 – 3505
14508430242712 – 3337
15497929572719 – 3195
16430329152711 – 3120
17390728692677 – 3060
18337828412650 – 3032
19298628212633 – 3009
20277427942626 – 2962
21277027702620 – 2920
22272627532608 – 2898
23268227352591 – 2880
24269127372600 – 2875
25269327252594 – 2855
26265927172577 – 2857
27263627232544 – 2902
28261827192515 – 2923
29252627202507 – 2934
30267227072515 – 2900
31265826872492 – 2882
32263726822483 – 2881
33320426692481 – 2857
34284326632510 – 2815
35273026672526 – 2807
36267926762549 – 2804
37273026982564 – 2832
38270527292585 – 2873
39287827522618 – 2886
40297727862628 – 2943
41295928072655 – 2960
4228392677 – 3001
4328622661 – 3063
4428892683 – 3095
4529022692 – 3111
4629322710 – 3155
4729722742 – 3202
4830122762 – 3263
4930372742 – 3332
5031002800 – 3399
5131662830 – 3501
5232222871 – 3573
* Provisional figures. Week 41 is an estimate.

No further rise among long-term care users nor among rest of the population

In week 40, the increase in mortality was slightly slower among people receiving care under the Long-term care Act (Wlz), such as nursing home residents than among the rest of the population. Based on the new estimate, it appears there was no further increase in mortality over week 41 among these care users, nor among the rest of the population.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 Long-term care (Wlz) users, deathsLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortalityLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95% interval)Other population, deathsOther population, estimated mortalityOther population, estimated mortality (95% interval)
1121012521052 – 1451189320251780 – 2270
2126512721076 – 1468209920391793 – 2285
3113512821086 – 1478202220621805 – 2319
4112513011113 – 1489192120911842 – 2339
5109813101118 – 1503206420971853 – 2341
6114213091099 – 1519205120921826 – 2358
7115513091069 – 1549204320991796 – 2403
8112912961044 – 1549183020911762 – 2419
9119512761005 – 1546190220761756 – 2396
1011641260989 – 1531194020561752 – 2359
1112001229950 – 1507201720251741 – 2308
1213351191928 – 1454228019831714 – 2252
1316561156912 – 1400280319481715 – 2180
1422121120915 – 1326287219041709 – 2100
1524091091910 – 1273257018661709 – 2022
1620661075912 – 1238223718401691 – 1990
1717161055898 – 1211219118141663 – 1965
1814291048900 – 1195194917931643 – 1944
1911861038897 – 1179180017831631 – 1935
2010311029902 – 1155174317651615 – 1915
2110691015892 – 1138170117551615 – 1895
2210041007887 – 1127172217461602 – 1890
23909995886 – 1104177317401585 – 1895
24958997888 – 1106173317401592 – 1889
25912989879 – 1099178117361585 – 1886
26940985864 – 1107171917321585 – 1879
27931992850 – 1134170517311567 – 1896
28911998849 – 1147170717211552 – 1890
299001003855 – 1152162617171555 – 1879
309571004854 – 1154171517041553 – 1855
31946997851 – 1143171216901540 – 1840
32904993846 – 1140173316901546 – 1834
331311987840 – 1134189316821531 – 1832
341113980849 – 1111173016831553 – 1813
35994974860 – 1087173616931550 – 1835
36942973860 – 1087173717031562 – 1844
37942977865 – 1089178817211579 – 1862
38979989876 – 1102172617401594 – 1886
3910531001892 – 1110182517511606 – 1896
4010751015897 – 1133190217711632 – 1909
4110661028908 – 1147189317801638 – 1922
421042910 – 117517971663 – 1930
431054912 – 119518081650 – 1966
441068920 – 121518211662 – 1981
451074925 – 122418271664 – 1991
461086936 – 123518461678 – 2014
471102953 – 125218701684 – 2056
481121964 – 127818921702 – 2081
491135970 – 130019011683 – 2120
501163996 – 132919371721 – 2153
5111931019 – 136819721739 – 2205
5212231035 – 141019991763 – 2236
* Provisional figures. Week 40 is an estimate.

Mortality higher than expected as of week 39

With the exception of elevated mortality in weeks 33 and 34 during the heat wave, the average weekly death count has been slightly below the levels that would be expected if there had not been a coronavirus pandemic. Prior to this, mortality was elevated for nine consecutive weeks due to the pandemic. During the first wave of the epidemic in the Netherlands, 10 thousand people died from either confirmed or suspected COVID-19.

For week 41 (as at 13 October), the municipal health services (GGD) have reported 109 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). In week 39, the number stood at 81 and in week 40 at 101. As possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, and registration sometimes takes slightly longer, the actual death count related to COVID-19 is likely to turn out higher.

More details next Friday

The figures over week 41 are estimates, based on 84 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 41 on Friday 23 October. * The figures will be more complete by then.