Forecast: nearly 18 million inhabitants, 19 million projected in 2037

In 2023, population growth is estimated at 140 thousand, 80 thousand less than in 2022. It will continue to slow down over the next five years, to approximately 70 thousand per year as of 2028.

Population growth mainly resulting from migration

As a result of foreign migration, the population has grown in recent years, with a peak in 2022 due to immigration from Ukraine. In 2023, immigration rates were 337 thousand versus 192 thousand emigrants. Annual immigration is expected to fall slightly in the coming years, while emigration will rise as some of the immigrants will leave the country after a few years. As of 2028, immigration is expected to be around 310 thousand per year, and emigration over 240 thousand.

Population growth driven by longer lifespan

The population also grows due to increased life expectancy. During the coronavirus period (2020 and 2021), life expectancy temporarily declined, but it has been rising again as of 2022. The number of elderly people in the Netherlands continues to increase in the coming decades. As a result, the annual number of deaths will also rise.
The birth rate is projected to rise as well in the coming years. Women are expected to have fewer children on average in future, but as the number of women of childbearing age rises, the number of births will nevertheless increase. Up to and including 2027, fewer births than deaths are expected. However, between 2028 and 2039, the birth rate is expected to exceed the death rate, after which the trend will be reversed.

Quarter of the population 65 years or older by 2040

The share of people aged 65 and over in the population is expected to grow from 20 percent in 2023, to 25 percent by 2040. Contributors to this growth include both the post-war baby boom and the higher birth rates in the 1960s, as well as an increasing lifespan. After 2040, the share of over-65s will remain stable. The share of 20 to 64-year-olds in the population will decline from 59 percent at the end of 2023 to 54 percent in 2070. Over the same period, the share of 0 to 19-year-olds will remain stable at around 20 percent.

By 2035, one in three residents expected to have a foreign background

By the end of 2023, the Netherlands is expected to have 2.9 million foreign-born residents and 15 million Netherlands-born residents. Among the latter group, 2.1 million have one or two foreign-born parents.

Over the next few decades, the population share of non-Dutch origin will increase, while the share of Dutch origin will decline. At the of end 2023, 28 percent of the population has a foreign background. This share is expected to reach 33 percent by 2035. Both in 2023 and in the future, approximately 40 percent of people of foreign origin were themselves born in the Netherlands, but have at least one foreign-born parent.

Comparison with previous forecast

The population forecast is adjusted annually, taking into account the most recent developments and latest insights. Compared to the 2022 Key forecast, adjustments have been made mainly due to fewer births and emigrants, as well as more deaths and immigrants than expected at that time. As a result of these adjustments, the current forecast projects a smaller population (135 thousand fewer people) by the year 2070 (20.6 million) than the 2022 Key forecast.

Most likely development and uncertainties

In calculating this forecast of population dynamics, CBS uses a simulation model which is based on assumptions regarding future births, deaths, immigration and emigration. The forecast figures are shrouded in uncertainty, however. For example, migration may fluctuate sharply from year to year. It is also uncertain whether the increase in lifespan will continue at the same pace and whether Dutch people will keep their preference for having two children. Moreover, it is uncertain how long the war in Ukraine will last, and whether the coronavirus pandemic will have long-term effects on population dynamics as well. By 2070, the population will most likely range between 18.9 and 22.2 million.