COVID-19 mortality continues to decline in 2023

11/12/2023 15:00

More recent figures are available on this topic. View the latest figures here.

Mortality from COVID-19 has further decreased in 2023. According to provisional figures, nearly 2 thousand people died from the disease in the first seven months. COVID-19 as a cause of death constitutes a decreasing share of deaths. However, the total number of deaths in 2023 so far is higher than expected had there been no coronavirus pandemic. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this, based on the latest provisional weekly mortality figures.

One of the outomes in a CBS study on Excess mortality and causes of death (in Dutch) in 2020 to 2022 inclusive, commissioned by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport, was that deaths from accidental falls, respiratory diseases and dementia were proportionally higher in 2022 than in 2020 and 2021. According to provisional figures up to July inclusive, this trend has continued in 2023.

Deviation from expected mortality, and share of COVID-19 mortality
Jaar	Week	Deviation from expected mortality rates (%)	COVID-19 as cause of death in total mortality (%)
2020	week 1	-5
2020	week 2	2
2020	week 3	-6
2020	week 4	-10
2020	week 5	-7
2020	week 6	-6
2020	week 7	-6
2020	week 8	-13
2020	week 9	-8
2020	week 10	-6	0
2020	week 11	-1	1
2020	week 12	14	11
2020	week 13	44	28
2020	week 14	68	38
2020	week 15	68	40
2020	week 16	48	34
2020	week 17	36	28
2020	week 18	19	20
2020	week 19	6	15
2020	week 20	-1	10
2020	week 21	0	8
2020	week 22	-1	5
2020	week 23	-2	4
2020	week 24	-2	2
2020	week 25	-1	2
2020	week 26	-2	1
2020	week 27	-3	1
2020	week 28	-4	1
2020	week 29	-7	0
2020	week 30	-1	1
2020	week 31	-1	1
2020	week 32	-1	1
2020	week 33	20	2
2020	week 34	7	2
2020	week 35	3	1
2020	week 36	1	1
2020	week 37	2	1
2020	week 38	0	2
2020	week 39	5	5
2020	week 40	8	6
2020	week 41	8	9
2020	week 42	13	13
2020	week 43	20	19
2020	week 44	28	23
2020	week 45	24	25
2020	week 46	22	22
2020	week 47	12	20
2020	week 48	13	19
2020	week 49	16	17
2020	week 50	17	19
2020	week 51	23	24
2020	week 52	20	29
2020	week 53	26	29
2021	week 01	25	28
2021	week 02	15	27
2021	week 03	14	25
2021	week 04	8	22
2021	week 05	6	20
2021	week 06	3	19
2021	week 07	3	18
2021	week 08	-6	16
2021	week 09	-8	14
2021	week 10	-3	12
2021	week 11	-7	12
2021	week 12	-5	11
2021	week 13	1	12
2021	week 14	4	10
2021	week 15	5	11
2021	week 16	7	10
2021	week 17	8	10
2021	week 18	5	9
2021	week 19	6	8
2021	week 20	6	6
2021	week 21	0	4
2021	week 22	8	4
2021	week 23	4	2
2021	week 24	4	2
2021	week 25	-3	1
2021	week 26	2	1
2021	week 27	3	1
2021	week 28	5	1
2021	week 29	1	2
2021	week 30	7	3
2021	week 31	9	4
2021	week 32	5	4
2021	week 33	8	3
2021	week 34	9	4
2021	week 35	6	3
2021	week 36	14	3
2021	week 37	7	3
2021	week 38	5	2
2021	week 39	11	2
2021	week 40	9	2
2021	week 41	8	3
2021	week 42	14	5
2021	week 43	17	9
2021	week 44	21	12
2021	week 45	29	15
2021	week 46	35	21
2021	week 47	40	24
2021	week 48	44	25
2021	week 49	43	24
2021	week 50	29	19
2021	week 51	18	16
2021	week 52	13	11
2022	week 01	3	9
2022	week 02	-6	7
2022	week 03	-6	6
2022	week 04	-7	6
2022	week 05	-5	7
2022	week 06	-6	8
2022	week 07	-2	9
2022	week 08	-2	8
2022	week 09	-5	7
2022	week 10	1	9
2022	week 11	9	11
2022	week 12	13	11
2022	week 13	13	10
2022	week 14	17	8
2022	week 15	17	6
2022	week 16	9	5
2022	week 17	8	4
2022	week 18	9	2
2022	week 19	9	2
2022	week 20	8	2
2022	week 21	4	1
2022	week 22	6	1
2022	week 23	6	1
2022	week 24	9	2
2022	week 25	14	2
2022	week 26	13	5
2022	week 27	8	4
2022	week 28	12	5
2022	week 29	15	6
2022	week 30	14	6
2022	week 31	9	5
2022	week 32	10	4
2022	week 33	14	3
2022	week 34	13	3
2022	week 35	10	2
2022	week 36	8	2
2022	week 37	3	2
2022	week 38	9	2
2022	week 39	15	3
2022	week 40	17	5
2022	week 41	16	6
2022	week 42	17	7
2022	week 43	14	5
2022	week 44	10	3
2022	week 45	8	3
2022	week 46	8	2
2022	week 47	13	2
2022	week 48	12	2
2022	week 49	18	3
2022	week 50	27	3
2022	week 51	31	4
2022	week 52	27	4
2023	week 01	21	4
2023	week 02	14	3
2023	week 03	8	3
2023	week 04	-1	2
2023	week 05	4	2
2023	week 06	-1	2
2023	week 07	2	2
2023	week 08	0	3
2023	week 09	2	4
2023	week 10	12	5
2023	week 11	10	4
2023	week 12	10	4
2023	week 13	7	3
2023	week 14	6	3
2023	week 15	1	2
2023	week 16	8	1
2023	week 17	-1	1
2023	week 18	4	1
2023	week 19	4	1
2023	week 20	2	1
2023	week 21	5	1
2023	week 22	2	1
2023	week 23	10	1
2023	week 24	15	0
2023	week 25	8	0
2023	week 26	5	0

Deviation from expected mortality, and share of COVID-19 mortality
Jaar	Week	Deviation from expected mortality rates (%)	COVID-19 as cause of death in total mortality (%)
2020	week 1	-5
2020	week 2	2
2020	week 3	-6
2020	week 4	-10
2020	week 5	-7
2020	week 6	-6
2020	week 7	-6
2020	week 8	-13
2020	week 9	-8
2020	week 10	-6	0
2020	week 11	-1	1
2020	week 12	14	11
2020	week 13	44	28
2020	week 14	68	38
2020	week 15	68	40
2020	week 16	48	34
2020	week 17	36	28
2020	week 18	19	20
2020	week 19	6	15
2020	week 20	-1	10
2020	week 21	0	8
2020	week 22	-1	5
2020	week 23	-2	4
2020	week 24	-2	2
2020	week 25	-1	2
2020	week 26	-2	1
2020	week 27	-3	1
2020	week 28	-4	1
2020	week 29	-7	0
2020	week 30	-1	1
2020	week 31	-1	1
2020	week 32	-1	1
2020	week 33	20	2
2020	week 34	7	2
2020	week 35	3	1
2020	week 36	1	1
2020	week 37	2	1
2020	week 38	0	2
2020	week 39	5	5
2020	week 40	8	6
2020	week 41	8	9
2020	week 42	13	13
2020	week 43	20	19
2020	week 44	28	23
2020	week 45	24	25
2020	week 46	22	22
2020	week 47	12	20
2020	week 48	13	19
2020	week 49	16	17
2020	week 50	17	19
2020	week 51	23	24
2020	week 52	20	29
2020	week 53	26	29
2021	week 01	25	28
2021	week 02	15	27
2021	week 03	14	25
2021	week 04	8	22
2021	week 05	6	20
2021	week 06	3	19
2021	week 07	3	18
2021	week 08	-6	16
2021	week 09	-8	14
2021	week 10	-3	12
2021	week 11	-7	12
2021	week 12	-5	11
2021	week 13	1	12
2021	week 14	4	10
2021	week 15	5	11
2021	week 16	7	10
2021	week 17	8	10
2021	week 18	5	9
2021	week 19	6	8
2021	week 20	6	6
2021	week 21	0	4
2021	week 22	8	4
2021	week 23	4	2
2021	week 24	4	2
2021	week 25	-3	1
2021	week 26	2	1
2021	week 27	3	1
2021	week 28	5	1
2021	week 29	1	2
2021	week 30	7	3
2021	week 31	9	4
2021	week 32	5	4
2021	week 33	8	3
2021	week 34	9	4
2021	week 35	6	3
2021	week 36	14	3
2021	week 37	7	3
2021	week 38	5	2
2021	week 39	11	2
2021	week 40	9	2
2021	week 41	8	3
2021	week 42	14	5
2021	week 43	17	9
2021	week 44	21	12
2021	week 45	29	15
2021	week 46	35	21
2021	week 47	40	24
2021	week 48	44	25
2021	week 49	43	24
2021	week 50	29	19
2021	week 51	18	16
2021	week 52	13	11
2022	week 01	3	9
2022	week 02	-6	7
2022	week 03	-6	6
2022	week 04	-7	6
2022	week 05	-5	7
2022	week 06	-6	8
2022	week 07	-2	9
2022	week 08	-2	8
2022	week 09	-5	7
2022	week 10	1	9
2022	week 11	9	11
2022	week 12	13	11
2022	week 13	13	10
2022	week 14	17	8
2022	week 15	17	6
2022	week 16	9	5
2022	week 17	8	4
2022	week 18	9	2
2022	week 19	9	2
2022	week 20	8	2
2022	week 21	4	1
2022	week 22	6	1
2022	week 23	6	1
2022	week 24	9	2
2022	week 25	14	2
2022	week 26	13	5
2022	week 27	8	4
2022	week 28	12	5
2022	week 29	15	6
2022	week 30	14	6
2022	week 31	9	5
2022	week 32	10	4
2022	week 33	14	3
2022	week 34	13	3
2022	week 35	10	2
2022	week 36	8	2
2022	week 37	3	2
2022	week 38	9	2
2022	week 39	15	3
2022	week 40	17	5
2022	week 41	16	6
2022	week 42	17	7
2022	week 43	14	5
2022	week 44	10	3
2022	week 45	8	3
2022	week 46	8	2
2022	week 47	13	2
2022	week 48	12	2
2022	week 49	18	3
2022	week 50	27	3
2022	week 51	31	4
2022	week 52	27	4
2023	week 01	21	4
2023	week 02	14	3
2023	week 03	8	3
2023	week 04	-1	2
2023	week 05	4	2
2023	week 06	-1	2
2023	week 07	2	2
2023	week 08	0	3
2023	week 09	2	4
2023	week 10	12	5
2023	week 11	10	4
2023	week 12	10	4
2023	week 13	7	3
2023	week 14	6	3
2023	week 15	1	2
2023	week 16	8	1
2023	week 17	-1	1
2023	week 18	4	1
2023	week 19	4	1
2023	week 20	2	1
2023	week 21	5	1
2023	week 22	2	1
2023	week 23	10	1
2023	week 24	15	0
2023	week 25	8	0
2023	week 26	5	0

Less correlation between excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality

The number of deaths in the first seven months of 2023 was 7 thousand higher than expected had there been no COVID-19 pandemic. This excess mortality was higher than the 2 thousand deaths due to COVID-19. This also occurred in 2022, when excess mortality was 14.5 thousand and the number of deaths from COVID-19 was 8.2 thousand. The share of COVID-19 in total mortality, and its connection with excess mortality, continued to decrease in 2023.

Higher share of deaths from accidental falls, dementia and respiratory diseases in 2022

In 2022, the share of COVID-19 deaths more than halved relative to 2021. The share of deaths from respiratory diseases (pneumonia and COPD) and dementia increased, and that from accidental falls has been increasing every year in recent years.

The most common (underlying) causes of death in the past three years were dementia, stroke, heart failure, lung cancer, COVID-19, COPD, breast cancer (in women), prostate cancer (in men), accidental falls, ischaemic heart diseases, colorectal/rectal cancer, and pneumonia. These causes of death accounted for about half of all deaths annually. In 2022, the three most common causes of death in women were dementia, stroke and heart failure; in men, they were lung cancer, dementia and ischaemic heart diseases.

Most common causes of death in women
Doodsoorzaak	2022 (%)	2021 (%)	2020 (%)
Dementia	12.2	11.2	11.5
Stroke	6.0	6.0	5.9
Heart failure	5.3	4.9	4.7
Lung cancer	5.3	5.3	5.2
COVID-19	4.3	10.3	11.1
COPD	4.2	3.3	3.2
Accidental falls	3.9	3.5	3.3
Ischemic heart disease	3.6	3.4	3.5
Breast cancer	3.6	3.6	3.6
Colorectal/ rectal cancer	2.5	2.4	2.7
Pneumonia	2.1	1.5	1.7

Most common causes of death in women
Doodsoorzaak	2022 (%)	2021 (%)	2020 (%)
Dementia	12.2	11.2	11.5
Stroke	6.0	6.0	5.9
Heart failure	5.3	4.9	4.7
Lung cancer	5.3	5.3	5.2
COVID-19	4.3	10.3	11.1
COPD	4.2	3.3	3.2
Accidental falls	3.9	3.5	3.3
Ischemic heart disease	3.6	3.4	3.5
Breast cancer	3.6	3.6	3.6
Colorectal/ rectal cancer	2.5	2.4	2.7
Pneumonia	2.1	1.5	1.7

Most common causes of death in men
Doodsoorzaak	2022 (%)	2021 (%)	2020 (%)
Lung cancer	6.6	6.4	6.7
Dementia	6.6	5.8	6.1
Ischemic heart disease	5.9	5.7	5.8
COVID-19	5.4	12.5	12.8
Stroke	4.7	4.4	4.5
Heart failure	4.1	3.9	3.7
COPD	3.7	3.3	3.5
Prostate cancer	3.7	3.5	3.6
Colorectal/ rectal cancer	2.9	2.9	2.8
Accidental falls	2.5	2.1	2.1
Pneumonia	2.0	1.5	1.6

Most common causes of death in men
Doodsoorzaak	2022 (%)	2021 (%)	2020 (%)
Lung cancer	6.6	6.4	6.7
Dementia	6.6	5.8	6.1
Ischemic heart disease	5.9	5.7	5.8
COVID-19	5.4	12.5	12.8
Stroke	4.7	4.4	4.5
Heart failure	4.1	3.9	3.7
COPD	3.7	3.3	3.5
Prostate cancer	3.7	3.5	3.6
Colorectal/ rectal cancer	2.9	2.9	2.8
Accidental falls	2.5	2.1	2.1
Pneumonia	2.0	1.5	1.6

CBS switches to regular statistics on mortality and causes of death from pre-pandemic situation

In 2023, far fewer COVID-19 deaths occurred than in previous years. In the early years of the pandemic, CBS was still able to calculate accurately enough the expected number of deaths per week. This has become much more difficult due to the reduced weekly numbers. A description over a longer period than one week gives a better picture of mortality trends than the weekly Mortality Monitor by CBS.

As before the pandemic, the weekly Mortality Monitor by the National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM) will again become the main source for monitoring the weekly excess mortality probability in the Netherlands. For this purpose, CBS provides the data to RIVM. In addition, CBS continues to monitor mortality with the regular Mortality and cause-of-death statistics and, where necessary (in case of noticeable developments), will examine this further. More information is available in the article (in Dutch) ‘CBS switches to regular statistics on mortality and causes of death from before the pandemic situation’.

Sources

News release - Excess mortality for the third consecutive year in 2022
News release - Far fewer COVID-19 deaths in 2022 than in 2020 and 2021