Manufacturers slightly less negative

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Frank Muller / Zorginbeeld
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Dutch manufacturers were slightly less negative in October than one month previously. Producer confidence went up from -2.2 in September to -1.8 in October. Manufacturers were less negative about the expected output in the next three months and current stocks of finished products.

In October, producer confidence was below the long-term average of 1.0. It reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7
2021December10.2
2022January9
2022February8.5
2022March8.7
2022April10.8
2022May9.9
2022June8.1
2022July8.4
2022August4.6
2022September2.6
2022October2.5
2022November3
2022December3.3
2023January3.6
2023February3.7
2023March4
2023April 3
2023May2.1
2023June1
2023July0.1
2023August-2.2
2023September-2.2
2023Oktober-1.8

Opinions on expected output improved

Manufacturers were less negative about expected output in the next three months and about current stocks of finished products. However, they were also less positive about their order positions.

Two component indicators were negative. Manufacturers anticipating output to decrease over the next three months outnumber those expecting an increase. More manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as large rather than small.

One component was positive. The majority of manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year.

Producer confidence: component indicators (seasonally adjusted)
 October 2023 (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)September 2023 (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)
Producer confidence-1.8-2.2
Opinion on order books0.30.9
Expected output-2-3
Stocks of finished products-3.7-4.5

Producer confidence up in half of the industries

In half of the major manufacturing industries, producer confidence improved in October. Confidence was again highest in the electrotechnical and machinery industry and again lowest in the timber and building materials industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 October (average of the component questions)September (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery10.89.1
Textiles, clothes, leather8.58
Food, beverages, tobacco-2.6-2.5
Petroleum and chemicals-4.5-7.1
Transport equipment-6.5-2.3
Metal-6.6-5.6
Paper and printing-8.2-4
Timber and building materials-15-17

Manufacturing output 8 percent down in August

About three weeks ago, CBS reported that in August 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 8.0 percent lower than in August 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the preceding months of 2023. Relative to July, output fell by 0.7 percent in August.