Economic picture more negative in July

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© ANP / Henriette Guest Fotografie

The economic picture was more negative in July than it was in June, according to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer. In the Tracer for July, 9 of the 13 indicators were below their long-term trend.

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter based on all the figures published by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators, excluding GDP, in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer)
YearMonthcycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
2022August0.93
2022September0.92
2022October0.89
2022November0.83
2022December0.79
2023January0.71
2023February0.66
2023March0.62
2023April0.51
2023May0.43
2023June0.34
2023July0.2
2023August0.09
2023September-0.01
2023October-0.13
2023November-0.2
2023December-0.27
2024January-0.34
2024February-0.36
2024March-0.38
2024April-0.4
2024May-0.39
2024June-0.39
2024July-0.41
2024August-0.4
2024September-0.37
2024October-0.36
2024November-0.32
2024December-0.29
2025January-0.31
2025February-0.3
2025March-0.32
2025April-0.37
2025May-0.38
2025June-0.4
2025July-0.43
2025August-0.42
2025September-0.41
2025October-0.42
2025November-0.39
2025December-0.37
2026January-0.4
2026February-0.38
2026March-0.35
2026April-0.37
2026May-0.34
2026June-0.3
2026July-0.33

Consumers less negative, producers more positive

Consumers were less negative and producers were more positive in July than they were in June. Producer confidence was above the average for the past twenty years, while consumer confidence was below the average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
YearMonthConsumer confidence (average of the component questions)Producer confidence (average of the component questions)
2022August-542.4
2022September-591.2
2022October-590.9
2022November-571.1
2022December-521
2023January-491.1
2023February-440.9
2023March-390.9
2023April-37-0.3
2023May-38-1.7
2023June-39-2.7
2023July-39-2.7
2023August-40-4.6
2023September-39-3.9
2023October-38-3.7
2023November-33-2.6
2023December-29-5.7
2014January-28-4.4
2014February-27-4.2
2014March-22-4.8
2014April-21-3.6
2014May-22-2.8
2014June-23-2.4
2014July-24-2.7
2014August-24-1.9
2014September-21-1.7
2014October-22-3.2
2014November-25-1.8
2014December-26-1.6
2025January-28-1.6
2025February-32-1.2
2025March-34-1.5
2025April-37-3.3
2025May-37-3.9
2025June-36-5
2025July-32-4.9
2025August-32-3.3
2025September-32-1.6
2025October-27-0.8
2025November-21-1.7
2025December-21-1.1
2026January-230.8
2026February-24-1.1
2026March-30-0.7
2026April-44-0.7
2026May-46-2
2026June-391.3
2026July-352.4

Exports and household consumption up, investment down

In May 2026, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was up by 5.5 percent, year on year. In April, exports grew by 4.6 percent. In May, companies exported more petroleum products, in particular. In addition, exports of electrical machinery were also higher than a year earlier.

Households spent 1.8 percent more on goods and services in May, year on year (adjusted for price changes and for differences in the shopping day pattern). They spent more on goods, in particular.

In May, the volume of investment in tangible fixed assets was down by 3.8 percent, year on year, as reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). In April, investment fell by 3.3 percent. Investment in buildings, infrastructure and machinery was lower.

Manufacturing output nearly 5 percent higher in May, year on year

In May 2026, the calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing sector was 4.9 percent higher than it was in May 2025. Manufacturing output rose by 0.1 percent relative to April.

More bankruptcies in June

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 15 more bankruptcies in June than in May, an increase of 5 percent.

House prices up by over 4 percent in June, year on year

The average price of an owner-occupied home (excluding newbuild homes) was 4.1 percent higher in June, year on year. In the previous month, the price increase was 4.4 percent. June prices were up by 0.6 percent over prices in May.

Fewer hours worked, fewer vacancies, unemployment down

There were 393 thousand unemployed people in the Netherlands in June, which means that 3.8 percent of the labour force was unemployed. In May, this was 3.9 percent.

In Q2 2026, employees and self-employed persons worked over 3.7 billion hours in total. Adjusted for seasonal effects, this was down by 0.4 percent from Q1.

At the end of Q2 2026, there were 375 thousand job vacancies, a decrease of 3 thousand compared to the previous quarter. The decline in the number of vacancies is continuing.

In Q1 2026, the turnover of temporary employment and job placement agencies was 3.8 percent higher, year on year.

Economic growth of 0.4 percent in Q2 2026

According to the first estimate from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4 percent in Q2 2026, relative to Q1. Household consumption and public consumption made the most positive contributions to growth.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2021=100)
2022Quarter 3105.7
2022Quarter 4105.5
2023Quarter 1105
2023Quarter 2104.6
2023Quarter 3103.9
2023Quarter 4104.1
2024Quarter 1104.4
2024Quarter 2105.3
2024Quarter 3106
2024Quarter 4106.3
2025Quarter 1106.6
2025Quarter 2106.9
2025Quarter 3107.4
2025Quarter 4107.8
2026Quarter 1108.1
2026Quarter 2108.5