Less excess mortality during second wave, but still high after 9 weeks

In the first nine weeks of the first wave (weeks 11 through 19), there were almost 9 thousand more deaths than would normally be expected during this period. In the first nine weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 through 47), excess mortality stood at an estimated 3.9 thousand.

As of week 39, weekly mortality is higher than expected; almost 30 thousand people have passed away since then. According to estimates, a normal death count over this period (weeks 39 through 47) in the absence of an epidemic is slightly under 26 thousand. This means an excess mortality of 3.9 thousand. During the first wave (weeks 11 through 19), mortality stood at 36 thousand, which would have been an estimated 27 thousand had there not been a coronavirus epidemic; this means an excess mortality of 9 thousand.

In the period prior to the first wave (weeks 1 through 10), the number of deaths was over 2 thousand lower than expected (undermortality). Between the first and second wave (weeks 20 through 38), the number of deaths was ’normal’. In this period, there was excess mortality during the heat wave (weeks 33 and 34) while in the remaining weeks, average mortality was slightly lower than could be expected without the coronavirus epidemic.

Relative excess mortality more than halved

During the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic (weeks 11 through 19), 33 percent more people died than expected, against 15 percent more deaths in the first nine weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 through 47). Relative excess mortality has therefore more than halved.

During both waves, excess mortality was recorded among all age groups, among the over-65s in particular. During the second wave, there was virtually no more elevated mortality among people under 65; this was still 14 percent during the first wave.

Just as during the first wave, during the second wave mortality is higher among men than among women; excess mortality among men was 18 percent against 12 percent among women during weeks 39 through 47.

The number of deaths among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz) was substantially elevated during the first wave (52 percent excess mortality). The second wave, too, is seeing relatively more deaths among long-term care users (20 percent excess mortality). However, the difference with the rest of the population is now less substantial.

Regional distribution

During the first wave, mortality was particularly elevated in the provinces of Limburg and Noord-Brabant. In the first nine weeks of the second wave (weeks 39 through 47), relative mortality was highest in Zuid-Holland (26 percent), followed by Overijssel (20 percent). Limburg, on the other hand, has low excess mortality during the second wave (5 percent). Drenthe is the only province with higher excess mortality in the first nine weeks of the second wave compared to the first wave. Groningen did not have any excess mortality in both waves and Zeeland did not (yet) have excess mortality in the second wave.

COVID-19 mortality known until June

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on daily reports on the number of deaths received by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a later stage via death cause certificates. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including June 2020. According to these figures, slightly over 10,000 people died from COVID-19 between March and June 2020, as published by CBS on 1 October. Excess mortality over this period is therefore entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

RIVM receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no obligation for COVID-19 deaths to be reported and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Up to and including June 2020, RIVM registered 6,180 COVID-19 deaths. In weeks 39 through 47, it registered 2,646 COVID-19 deaths (as at 24 November 2020). There were fewer than 200 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the intervening period.

Estimate for week 47

The figures for week 47 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 47 on Friday 4 December. The figures will be more complete by then.