Population forecast: more elderly than young people

The number of elderly people in the Netherlands continues to grow.
© CBS / Nikki van Toorn
The number of elderly people in the Netherlands continues to grow. People aged 65 and over now outnumber young people aged under 20 for the first time. One of the reasons for this is that people are living longer, but migration is also a factor, which means that this growth will continue over the decades to come. By 2070, the Netherlands is expected to have 2.5 million more inhabitants than it has now. This is according to the 2024-2070 Core Forecast of Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

In early 2025, there were 3.72 million young people (under 20) and 3.76 million older people (over 65) in the Netherlands. The latter group will grow more rapidly: by 2070, the number of people aged 65 and over is expected to be 5.4 million and the number of young people is expected to be 4.1 million. The number of young people will fall slightly until 2031. The number of people aged 80 and over will rise in particular: from over 0.9 million in 2025 to 2.1 million by 2070.

Working age population is declining

People of working age (those aged between 15 and 65 years) currently make up nearly 59 percent of the Dutch population. This number is expected to fall to 55 percent by 2040. The number of inhabitants in this age group is expected to be around 10.6 million until 2040 and then rise gradually to 11.1 million by 2070.

Population growth is projected to slow from 2033 onwards

In 2025, the population is estimated to have grown by 95 thousand: 6 thousand fewer inhabitants than in 2024. From 2033 onwards, population growth will slow somewhat, due to higher mortality and lower migration.

In recent years, population growth has mainly been due to positive net migration: more people came to live in the Netherlands than left the country to live elsewhere. Immigration is expected to fall slightly in the next few years. Emigration, on the other hand, is expected to increase, as some migrants return to their country of origin after spending a few years in the Netherlands. Net migration (immigration minus emigration) has been well above 100 thousand in recent years, but is expected to decline in the next few years, from 88 thousand in 2026 to 70 thousand in 2030.

Mortality rate higher than birth rate in the next few years

Until 2029, the death rate is expected to exceed the birth rate. The annual number of live births has hovered around 166 thousand between 2022 and 2025, but is expected to grow to 198 thousand by 2038. This is because the number of women of childbearing age is increasing, and women aged 30 and over are more likely to have children.

The number of deaths was around 172 thousand in 2024 and is expected to remain unchanged in 2025 and 2026. The number of elderly people is rising and people are also living longer, which means that the number of deaths is more or less unchanged. After 2026, however, the death rate is expected to rise gradually, which means that the population will grow at a slower rate.

Forecasts are subject to uncertainty

The population is expected to reach 20.6 million by 2070, but there are uncertainties in the forecast. For example, migration can vary significantly from one year to the next. Furthermore, it is uncertain whether life expectancy will continue to increase at the same rate and whether the average number of children born per woman will remain the same. The population in 2070 is expected to be between 17.5 million and 23.9 million.

Population in 2070 now predicted to be lower than previously forecast

The population forecast is adjusted every year to take account of the most recent figures and insights. Compared to the forecast made in 2024, there are mainly short-term adjustments due to higher mortality rates, lower immigration and higher emigration. As a result of these adjustments, the population in 2070 is expected to be 70 thousand lower. However, compared to the uncertainty in the forecast, this is a minor difference.

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