Forecast life expectancy for 65-year-olds in 2031 is 21 years

Older people sitting on a terrace
© CBS / Nikki van Toorn
According to current projections by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), life expectancy for 65-year-olds in 2031 will be 21.02 years. This means that somebody aged 65 years old in 2031 is expected to live for another 21 years, on average. Policymakers use this forecast to determine the future state pension age (AOW). Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports its latest life expectancy forecast today.

The new life expectancy forecast for 2031 is lower than last year, when it was 21.08 years. When calculating these projections, Statistics Netherlands looks at changes in life expectancy in the past, and how accurate previous projections turned out to be.

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, mortality has been higher than expected based on the period that preceded it. The increase in mortality has resulted in lower life expectancy. Life expectancy has been rising again since 2022, but the recovery has been slower than expected and so the forecast has now been revised downward.

The forecast describes the most likely future trend, but it also involves uncertainties. The final paragraph of this news release outlines those uncertainties in more detail.

State pension age is based on Statistics Netherlands forecast

The forecast from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) is used to determine the future statutory retirement age, as set out in the General Old Age Pension Act (AOW, Article 7a). Based on this legislation, the statutory retirement age has been set at 67 years for the period 2024-2027. For the period 2028-2030, it has been set at 67 years and 3 months. Based on the life expectancy forecast for 65-year-olds in 2031, the Minister of Social Affairs and Employment will set the statutory retirement age for 2031-2034.

Life expectancy has been lower since the beginning of the pandemic

Life expectancy for people aged 65 years increased from 14.3 years in 1950 to 20.1 years in 2019. The increase is not the same every year. In the Netherlands, as in other Western European countries, the increase in life expectancy was slower between 2012 and 2018.

Due to higher mortality rates during the coronavirus pandemic, life expectancy for people aged 65 fell to 19.5 years in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, it rose again to 19.7 years and by 2024 it was 19.9 years. Looking ahead, this increase is expected to continue, to 21.02 years in 2031.

Life expectancy for women is higher than for men. In 2024, the difference at age 65 was 2.0 years. Men now have the same life expectancy that they had in 2019, but among women it is still below the 2019 level.

Most likely scenario

Statistics Netherlands uses an international scientific model in order to forecast life expectancy. The model assumes that the downward trend in mortality rates in Western Europe will continue into the long term. This makes the model more stable, reducing the impact of local fluctuations because the model is not based on data from the Netherlands alone.
Forecasts are always uncertain, however, and Statistics Netherlands calculates confidence intervals for its forecast. These indicate the range within which the forecast has a particular probability of being correct.

The life expectancy forecast is part of the population forecast carried out by Statistics Netherlands every year. This forecast describes the most likely future population of the Netherlands over time. The 2025-2070 population forecast will be published on 16 December 2025.

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