Manufacturers again less positive

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© CBS / Alrik Swagerman
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers was down in May 2023. It declined from 3.0 in April to 2.1 in May. This was largely because manufacturers were less positive about order positions.

Producer confidence exceeds the long-term average of 1.3. It reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7
2021December10.2
2022January9
2022February8.5
2022March8.7
2022April10.8
2022May9.9
2022June8.1
2022July8.4
2022August4.6
2022September2.6
2022October2.5
2022November3
2022December3.3
2023January3.6
2023February3.7
2023March4
2023April 3
2023May2.1

Opinions on order positions, future output and stocks deteriorated

Manufacturers were mainly less positive about order positions. They were also less positive about future output in the next three months. Their opinion about current stocks of finished products was more negative.

Two component indicators of producer confidence were positive. The majority of manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. Furthermore, manufacturers anticipating output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease.

However, there was one negative component indicator: more manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Producer confidence down in most industries

In most major manufacturing industries, producer confidence deteriorated in May. Just as in the preceding months, confidence was highest in the electrotechnical and machinery industries. Confidence was lowest in the timber and building materials industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 May (average of the component questions)April (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery13.715.3
Transport equipment1213.9
Metal0.65.8
Petroleum-0.2-3
Food, beverages, tobacco-0.4-2.3
Textiles, clothes, leather-3.23
Paper and printing-8.2-3.7
Timber and building materials-14.7-10.9

Manufacturing output 4 percent down in March

In March 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 4.0 percent lower than in March 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the two preceding months of 2023.

Producer confidence in Germany deteriorating

Germany is an important market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In May, German entrepreneurs were more negative about the business climate, according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute. They were considerably more negative about their future business situation and also less positive about their current situation. The average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was up by 3.6 percent year on year in March, as reported by Destatis.