Producer confidence at new record high

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© CBS / Alrik Swagerman
In November 2021, the mood among Dutch manufacturers has improved again. Confidence has risen from 12.3 in October to 12.7 in November, as reported today by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). This is the highest level since the survey started in 1985.

The long-term average over the past two decades stands at 0.7. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
December8.9
2018January10.3
2018February10.9
2018March9.5
2018April8.2
2018May9.8
2018June7.7
2018July6.3
2018August5.9
2018September5.7
2018October5.9
2018November7.2
2018December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7

Manufacturers more positive about order positions

In November, manufacturers are mainly more positive about their order positions. Opinions are at the highest level since 1985. Opinions of manufacturers on their stocks of finished products have also improved. However, they are less positive about their future output.

Manufacturers’ opinions on all three component indicators are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. There are fewer manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Confidence highest in electrotechnical products and machinery industry

Although producer confidence is at an all-time high in November, confidence has declined in more than half of the underlying industries. Confidence is highest in the electrotechnical products and machinery industry. Confidence has increased most sharply in the transport equipment industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 November 2021 (average of the component questions)October 2021 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery23.924.6
Paper and printing18.312.3
Timber and building materials1822.8
Metal14.412
Textiles, clothes, leather12.212.4
Transport equipment11.94
Petroleum7.811.7
Food, beverages, tobacco7.15.8

Manufacturing output almost 11 percent up in September

In September 2021, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 10.9 percent from September 2020. Output was up by 9.4 percent in the previous month. Compared to September 2019, the growth rate amounted to over 4 percent.

Producer confidence in Germany declining again

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In November, German producer confidence according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute fell due to a lower assessment of the current situation. Expectations, by contrast, brightened somewhat.

In September, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry fell by 1.4 percent year-on-year, as reported by Destatis. Relative to September 2019, it was lower by 9.9 percent.