New life expectancy forecast for 65-year-olds: 20.93 years in 2027

The newly projected 20.93 years of remaining life expectancy in 2027 are virtually equal to last year’s forecast (20.94 years). The forecast describes the most likely development, but it also contains uncertainties. More information can be found in the final paragraph below.

State pension legislation based on CBS forecast

The CBS forecast is used as a basis for determining the future state pension entitlement age as laid down in the General Old Age Pension Act (AOW, Article 7a). On the basis of the life expectancy forecast for 65-year-olds in 2027, the Minister of Social Affairs and Employment will determine the state pension entitlement age for 2027.

As stipulated in the AOW, state pension entitlement will begin at 67 in 2024. This is also the age stipulated for 2025 and 2026. For subsequent years, the increase in the state pension entitlement age will be determined on the basis of the life expectancy forecast.

Life expectancy increasing, but lower in 2020

Since 1950, the remaining life expectancy for 65-year-olds has shown a rising trend. It was still 14.3 years on average in that year; by 2019, this had gone up to 20.1 years. When nearly 17 thousand more people died during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 compared to the previous year, life expectancy at age 65 fell to 19.5 years.

Life expectancy does not increase evenly over the years. The trend may accelerate or slow down in certain periods. In the Netherlands, as in other Western European countries, the increase in life expectancy was slower between 2012 and 2018; it accelerated slightly in 2019, but that year was followed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the current forecast, life expectancy in 2027 will be 0.8 years higher than in 2019, and 1.4 years higher than in 2020.

Impact of coronavirus

Mortality in the Netherlands has been above its long-term average since the start of the coronavirus epidemic in March 2020. The number of deaths increased by an estimated 10 percent compared to periods without a pandemic. In 2021 as well, so far more deaths (over 4 percent more) have been recorded than average. Depending on developments over the rest of the year, life expectancy in 2021 will be lower than in a situation without coronavirus, just as in 2020.

Nevertheless, the pandemic is not expected to adversely affect the upward trend in life expectancy that has been going on for years. In the past, after periods of high mortality such as during the Spanish flu and World War II, life expectancy quickly returned to its previous level. That is why the latest life expectancy forecast for 2027 is roughly the same as the one made before the pandemic.

Most likely scenario

For its projections of future life expectancy, CBS makes use of a model which was developed within the international scientific community. This model is based on the expectation that the stable decline in mortality risk around Western Europe will continue in the long term. In this way, temporary changes in the Dutch trend have a less distorting effect on future projections than if the model were solely based on national developments. However, forecasts remain uncertain. The degree of uncertainty around the forecast is calculated by using so-called forecast intervals. These indicate the degree of accuracy of a forecast.

The life expectancy forecast is part of the annual population forecast conducted by CBS. This forecast describes the most likely future development of the Dutch population. The CBS Population forecast 2021–2070 will be published on 16 December 2021.