1,250 more deaths than expected in October

More recent figures are available on this topic. View the latest figures here.
Flowers bloom in a cemetery.
© Hollandse Hoogte / Arenda Oomen
In October 2021, the weekly number of deaths was higher than expected; there was excess mortality in all weeks. In total, there were over 1,250 more deaths than expected for this month. Mortality was elevated among the over-80s and long-term care users in particular. In the last week of October (week 43, i.e. 25 to 31 October inclusive), the estimated total stands at nearly 3,350, over 450 more than expected for this period. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this based on the latest provisional weekly mortality figures.

This news release focuses on mortality in the four weeks of October, weeks 40 through 43 (4 to 31 October inclusive). Mortality in this period was above the expected level and also outside the range of usual fluctuations, resulting in excess mortality in each week. On average, there were 300 more deaths per week than expected in October. In September, the number of deaths was 200 higher than the expected level, with excess mortality in four out of the five weeks.

The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) registered 88 COVID-19 deaths in week 43 (as at 2 November), i.e. two to four times as many as the weekly average in September and at the beginning of October.

Weekly mortality*
   DeathsExpected mortalityExpected mortality (95% interval)
20201310332772908 – 3645
20202336433112930 – 3692
20203315733442945 – 3742
20204304633923008 – 3776
20205316434073027 – 3788
20206319634012979 – 3823
20207319834082916 – 3901
20208295933872851 – 3922
20209309833522805 – 3898
202010310733152785 – 3845
202011321832532756 – 3751
202012361431742711 – 3637
202013445831042703 – 3505
202014508530242712 – 3337
202015498229572719 – 3195
202016430829152711 – 3120
202017391028692677 – 3060
202018338328412650 – 3032
202019298928212633 – 3009
202020277727942626 – 2962
202021277027702620 – 2920
202022273227532608 – 2898
202023268227352591 – 2880
202024268927372600 – 2875
202025269627252594 – 2855
202026265927172577 – 2857
202027263827232544 – 2902
202028261927192515 – 2923
202029252827202507 – 2934
202030267327072515 – 2900
202031266626872492 – 2882
202032264226822483 – 2881
202033320926692481 – 2857
202034285626632510 – 2815
202035273526672526 – 2807
202036269226762549 – 2804
202037274226982564 – 2832
202038272127292585 – 2873
202039289127522618 – 2886
202040300227862628 – 2943
202041302228072655 – 2960
202042322228392677 – 3001
202043344828622661 – 3063
202044368728892683 – 3095
202045358929022692 – 3111
202046358029322710 – 3155
202047333529722742 – 3202
202048340530122762 – 3263
202049353030372742 – 3332
202050361531002800 – 3399
202051390931662830 – 3501
202052386732222871 – 3573
202053410332662906 – 3625
20211414333092940 – 3677
20212385233432962 – 3724
20213386233762978 – 3775
20214371634253040 – 3809
20215365434403060 – 3821
20216355034343012 – 3856
20217352834412949 – 3934
20218320734202884 – 3955
20219310533842838 – 3931
202110324533472817 – 3877
202111304332852787 – 3782
202112304432052742 – 3668
202113317831342733 – 3535
202114316230542741 – 3366
202115313729862748 – 3224
202116314429442739 – 3148
202117312328972705 – 3088
202118300028692677 – 3060
202119301528492660 – 3037
202120298828212653 – 2989
202121280627972646 – 2947
202122300927802635 – 2925
202123288327622617 – 2906
202124286927642627 – 2901
202125267327512620 – 2882
202126279227432603 – 2883
202127283627502571 – 2929
202128287127452541 – 2949
202129277527472534 – 2960
202130290727342541 – 2926
202131295527132518 – 2908
202132283227082509 – 2907
202133289026952507 – 2883
202134292226882535 – 2841
202135285326932552 – 2833
202136307927022575 – 2829
202137290127242590 – 2858
202138287727552612 – 2899
202139305727782644 – 2912
202140305328132655 – 2970
202141303428352682 – 2987
202142322128662705 – 3028
202143336128892688 – 3090
20214429172711 – 3123
20214529302720 – 3139
20214629602738 – 3183
20214730012771 – 3231
20214830422791 – 3292
20214930662771 – 3361
20215031302830 – 3429
202151
202152
* Provisional figures. Week 43 in 2021 is an estimate.

Higher mortality among long-term care users

In October, the weekly number of deaths was above the expected level, among both people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz) and the rest of the population. There were approximately 600 more deaths among long-term care users and over 650 more deaths among the rest of the population than expected for this period.

The estimate for week 43 is well above the expected level for both groups and there is excess mortality. There were around 1,300 deaths among long-term care users, including residents of nursing homes and institutions for the disabled. The number has not been this high since the end of February 2021. Among the rest of the population, over 2,050 deaths were recorded.

Weekly mortality*, by Long-term care (Wlz) use
   Long-term care (Wlz) usersLong-term care (Wlz) users, expectedLong-term care (Wlz) users, expected (95% interval)Other populationOther population, expectedOther population, expected (95% interval)
20201121012521052 – 1451189320251780 – 2270
20202126512721076 – 1468209920391793 – 2285
20203113512821086 – 1478202220621805 – 2319
20204112513011113 – 1489192120911842 – 2339
20205109813101118 – 1503206620971853 – 2341
20206114213091099 – 1519205420921826 – 2358
20207115513091069 – 1549204320991796 – 2403
20208112912961044 – 1549183020911762 – 2419
20209119512761005 – 1546190320761756 – 2396
20201011641260989 – 1531194320561752 – 2359
20201112001229950 – 1507201820251741 – 2308
20201213361191928 – 1454227819831714 – 2252
20201316561156912 – 1400280219481715 – 2180
20201422121120915 – 1326287319041709 – 2100
20201524091091910 – 1273257318661709 – 2022
20201620661075912 – 1238224218401691 – 1990
20201717161055898 – 1211219418141663 – 1965
20201814291048900 – 1195195417931643 – 1944
20201911861038897 – 1179180317831631 – 1935
20202010311029902 – 1155174617651615 – 1915
20202110691015892 – 1138170117551615 – 1895
20202210041007887 – 1127172817461602 – 1890
202023909995886 – 1104177317401585 – 1895
202024958997888 – 1106173117401592 – 1889
202025913989879 – 1099178317361585 – 1886
202026940985864 – 1107171917321585 – 1879
202027932992850 – 1134170617311567 – 1896
202028911998849 – 1147170817211552 – 1890
2020299001003855 – 1152162817171555 – 1879
2020309571004854 – 1154171617041553 – 1855
202031946997851 – 1143172016901540 – 1840
202032904993846 – 1140173816901546 – 1834
2020331311987840 – 1134189816821531 – 1832
2020341113980849 – 1111174316831553 – 1813
202035995974860 – 1087174016931550 – 1835
202036942973860 – 1087175017031562 – 1844
202037942977865 – 1089180017211579 – 1862
202038980989876 – 1102174117401594 – 1886
20203910541001892 – 1110183717511606 – 1896
20204010761015897 – 1133192617711632 – 1909
20204110901028908 – 1147193217801638 – 1922
20204212191042910 – 1175200317971663 – 1930
20204313171054912 – 1195213118081650 – 1966
20204415201068920 – 1215216718211662 – 1981
20204513911074925 – 1224219818271664 – 1991
20204614241086936 – 1235215618461678 – 2014
20204712871102953 – 1252204818701684 – 2056
20204812871121964 – 1278211818921702 – 2081
20204912861135970 – 1300224419011683 – 2120
20205014521163996 – 1329216319371721 – 2153
202051160711931019 – 1368230219721739 – 2205
202052172712231035 – 1410214019991763 – 2236
202053173212441050 – 1437237020221781 – 2263
20211165712641065 – 1463248620451799 – 2290
20212158812841089 – 1480226420591813 – 2305
20213153912941098 – 1491232320821825 – 2339
20214146513131125 – 1501225121111863 – 2360
20215143713231131 – 1515221721171874 – 2361
20216135113221112 – 1532219921121846 – 2379
20217136613221082 – 1562216221201816 – 2423
20218115913091056 – 1561204821111783 – 2439
20219110512881018 – 1559200020961776 – 2416
202110114712721001 – 1543209820751772 – 2379
2021119971241962 – 1519204620441761 – 2328
20211210451203939 – 1466199920021733 – 2271
20211310301167923 – 1412214819671734 – 2199
2021149911131925 – 1337217119231727 – 2118
2021159781102920 – 1283215918841727 – 2040
2021169731085922 – 1248217118581708 – 2008
20211710431065908 – 1221208018321681 – 1983
20211810091058910 – 1205199118111660 – 1961
20211910051048907 – 1189201018001648 – 1952
2021209921039912 – 1165199617821632 – 1933
2021219871025902 – 1147181917721632 – 1912
20212210701017897 – 1137193917631619 – 1907
2021239961005896 – 1114188717571602 – 1912
20212410611007897 – 1116180817571609 – 1906
202125960999889 – 1109171317521602 – 1903
202126986995874 – 1116180617491601 – 1896
20212710361002859 – 1144180017481584 – 1913
20212810381008858 – 1157183317371569 – 1906
20212910241013865 – 1161175117341572 – 1896
20213010441013863 – 1164186317201569 – 1871
20213110981007861 – 1153185717061556 – 1856
20213210521002855 – 1149178017061562 – 1850
2021331073997850 – 1144181716981548 – 1848
2021341048989858 – 1120187416991569 – 1829
2021351030983870 – 1097182317091567 – 1851
2021361112983869 – 1097196717191578 – 1861
2021371041987874 – 1099186017371596 – 1879
2021381035999886 – 1112184217571611 – 1902
20213910401010901 – 1119201717681623 – 1913
20214011291025907 – 1143192417881650 – 1926
20214111101037918 – 1157192417971655 – 1939
20214212411052920 – 1185198018141680 – 1948
20214312991064922 – 1205206218251668 – 1983
2021441078930 – 122618391679 – 1998
2021451085935 – 123418451682 – 2009
2021461096947 – 124518641696 – 2032
2021471113964 – 126218881703 – 2074
2021481132975 – 128819101720 – 2099
2021491146981 – 131119201701 – 2138
20215011741008 – 134119561740 – 2172
202151
202152
* Provisional figures. Week 43 in 2021 is an estimate.

Mainly more deaths among the over-80s

In October, weekly mortality among people over 80 was higher than expected with a total of around 700 excess deaths. In week 43, an estimated number of over 1,850 deaths occurred in this age group, nearly 300 more than expected for that week; there was excess mortality. Mortality in this age group has been above the expected level since July 2021. Both at the beginning and at the end of September (weeks 36 and 39), this group saw excess mortality.

Weekly mortality was also elevated in October among 65 to 79-year-olds, with around 400 more deaths than expected per week. Close to 1,050 deaths were estimated for week 43, i.e. nearly 150 excess deaths. There was excess mortality in this group previously at the beginning of June (weeks 22 and 23). It declined after that but increased again as of early July (week 26). Starting the last week of July (week 30), there was excess mortality in half of the subsequent weeks. In October, this was the case in three out of the four weeks.

Among people under 65, weekly mortality was slightly elevated in October with around 150 extra deaths. An estimated 450 were recorded in week 43, around 50 more than expected; there was excess mortality. This age group showed excess mortality as well in weeks 34 through 36 (end of August and beginning of September).

Weekly mortality*, by age
   0 to 64 years0 to 64 yrs, expected0 to 64 yrs, expected (95% interval)65 to 79 yrs65 to 79 yrs, expected65 to 79 yrs, expected (95% interval)80 yrs and over80 yrs and over, expected80 yrs and over, expected (95% interval)
20201385415374 – 456896947852 – 1041182219181632 – 2204
20202432413371 – 456967944851 – 1038196519571650 – 2263
20203418415371 – 460913944851 – 1038182619881657 – 2319
20204354417374 – 459936949856 – 1043175620301701 – 2360
20205450417375 – 460924956857 – 1056179020391717 – 2360
20206401417371 – 463982957843 – 1071181320321691 – 2373
20207408420374 – 466938961832 – 1091185220321649 – 2415
20208340420374 – 467870961815 – 1108174920091600 – 2418
20209404420370 – 470911951805 – 1096178319841574 – 2394
202010394417370 – 464889944804 – 1085182419571557 – 2357
202011410415367 – 463948932803 – 1062186019091537 – 2281
202012449410364 – 4561079917796 – 1039208618491503 – 2195
202013502407366 – 4481401907806 – 1008255517911486 – 2097
202014499401357 – 4441503889806 – 972308317351490 – 1981
202015485394355 – 4321435876809 – 942306216881496 – 1880
202016426389350 – 4271234867799 – 935264816601505 – 1815
202017455383341 – 4251155857787 – 926230016301490 – 1769
202018446381342 – 4191000847779 – 916193716131472 – 1755
202019391380339 – 420915845777 – 912168315971458 – 1735
202020374378339 – 418835834768 – 901156815811460 – 1703
202021367377335 – 419805832766 – 898159815601459 – 1661
202022371376330 – 422858830764 – 895150315471451 – 1643
202023386378335 – 421835827767 – 887146115291425 – 1634
202024405383340 – 425834829770 – 888145015251431 – 1619
202025375382341 – 423855827765 – 889146615141427 – 1601
202026381384342 – 426828825763 – 887145015071407 – 1606
202027402385342 – 428809829764 – 894142715071375 – 1639
202028390386347 – 424812830760 – 899141715011352 – 1650
202029373389351 – 426775830762 – 899138014991337 – 1661
202030407387349 – 425823828759 – 896144314911343 – 1639
202031376383347 – 419841824752 – 896144914781334 – 1622
202032420384345 – 423820829755 – 904140214671318 – 1615
202033463382345 – 418928826749 – 904181814591325 – 1592
202034417382342 – 422863829756 – 901157614501346 – 1554
202035353384338 – 429865831761 – 900151714501354 – 1546
202036416385339 – 431828833766 – 900144814561373 – 1538
202037396390343 – 437898839773 – 905144814661383 – 1548
202038395397350 – 445845850777 – 923148114791390 – 1568
202039394396346 – 447880855785 – 924161714981416 – 1580
202040435400348 – 453917865789 – 941165015181416 – 1620
202041379400354 – 447990868785 – 950165315371436 – 1638
202042432405360 – 449987872788 – 956180315601446 – 1674
202043425406362 – 4501080878787 – 969194315761438 – 1713
202044409403360 – 4471166888798 – 979211215951443 – 1748
202045434403362 – 4431111890807 – 973204416071441 – 1774
202046435408369 – 4461059898814 – 982208616251449 – 1801
202047417411376 – 4471083913829 – 996183516471468 – 1826
202048436414377 – 4501084925845 – 1005188516731482 – 1863
202049446411373 – 4501112933843 – 1022197216921481 – 1903
202050464413374 – 4511104938853 – 1023204717491525 – 1973
202051473416378 – 4541187941848 – 1034224918091563 – 2056
202052432415375 – 4551146944849 – 1039228918651598 – 2132
202053462413372 – 4541280958863 – 1052236118981621 – 2174
20211429411369 – 4521179971877 – 1065253519301644 – 2215
20212410409367 – 4511111969875 – 1062233119691662 – 2275
20213426411366 – 4551087969875 – 1062234920001670 – 2331
20214403412370 – 4551106974880 – 1067220720421713 – 2372
20215380413370 – 4551101981881 – 1080217320511730 – 2372
20216410413366 – 4591097981867 – 1095204320441703 – 2385
20217478415369 – 4621039986856 – 1115201120441661 – 2427
20218403416369 – 463985986840 – 1133181920211612 – 2430
20219416415365 – 466969975830 – 1121172019971587 – 2407
202110416413365 – 460990969828 – 1109183919691569 – 2369
202111415410363 – 458985956827 – 1085164319211549 – 2292
202112388405360 – 4511008941819 – 1062164818601514 – 2206
202113414402361 – 4441041930830 – 1031172318021497 – 2108
202114447396353 – 4401047912829 – 995166817461500 – 1992
202115440390351 – 4281077898831 – 965162016991507 – 1891
202116454385346 – 4231019890822 – 958167116701515 – 1825
202117435379337 – 4201046879809 – 948164216401500 – 1779
202118410377338 – 4151023869801 – 937156716231482 – 1764
202119495376335 – 416935866799 – 934158516071468 – 1745
202120415374335 – 4141026855789 – 922154715911469 – 1712
202121397373331 – 415867854788 – 920154215701469 – 1671
202122438372326 – 418946851786 – 916162515561460 – 1652
202123404374331 – 417927848789 – 908155215391434 – 1643
202124410378336 – 421897850791 – 909156215341440 – 1629
202125401378337 – 419847848787 – 910142515231437 – 1610
202126425380338 – 422865846784 – 908150215161417 – 1615
202127414381338 – 424896851786 – 916152615161385 – 1648
202128408382343 – 420900851782 – 920156315101361 – 1659
202129378385347 – 422908852783 – 920148915091347 – 1671
202130397383345 – 421941849781 – 917156915001352 – 1648
202131413379343 – 415921845773 – 917162114871343 – 1631
202132411380341 – 419882851776 – 925153914751327 – 1623
202133404378341 – 414915848771 – 925157114671334 – 1601
202134444378338 – 418943850777 – 923153514591354 – 1563
202135426380334 – 425881852782 – 922154614591363 – 1555
202136433381335 – 4271017854787 – 922162914641382 – 1547
202137419386339 – 433928861794 – 927155414751392 – 1557
202138436393346 – 440922872799 – 945151914881399 – 1577
202139434392342 – 443980877807 – 946164315071425 – 1589
202140429396344 – 449996887811 – 963162815271426 – 1629
202141436396349 – 443956890808 – 972164215461445 – 1647
202142428400356 – 445989894810 – 978180415701455 – 1684
202143456402358 – 4461034900809 – 991187115851448 – 1722
202144399355 – 443911820 – 100216051453 – 1758
202145398358 – 439913830 – 99616171451 – 1783
202146404365 – 442921837 – 100516351459 – 1811
202147407371 – 442936852 – 102016571478 – 1836
202148409372 – 446949869 – 102916831492 – 1873
202149407369 – 445957867 – 104617021492 – 1913
202150408369 – 447962878 – 104717601536 – 1984
202151
202152
* Provisional figures. Week 43 in 2021 is an estimate.

COVID-19 mortality known until June

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on daily reports on the number of deaths received by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a later stage via death cause certificates. The cause of death is known for all deceased persons up to and including June 2021. According to these figures, 31,384 people died of COVID-19 between March 2020 and June 2021, as published by CBS on 4 November.

Data sources for RIVM

To date, RIVM has registered 18,440 COVID-19 deaths, of which 17,766 were recorded up to June 2021 inclusive (as at 2 November 2021). RIVM receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is higher than these estimates for the following reasons: it is possible that not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Estimate for week 43

The figures for week 43 are estimates, based on 82 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 43 on Friday 12 November. The figures will be more complete by then.