Producer confidence back at record high

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In October 2021, the mood among Dutch manufacturers has improved as compared to September. Confidence has risen from 11.1 to 12.3, as reported today by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). This equals the record high in July 2021. At the beginning of Q4 2021, the industrial capacity utilisation rate deteriorated slightly.

The long-term average over the past two decades stands at 0.6. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (12.3) in July and October 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2017November9.1
2017December8.9
2018January10.3
2018February10.9
2018March9.5
2018April8.2
2018May9.8
2018June7.7
2018July6.3
2018August5.9
2018September5.7
2018October5.9
2018November7.2
2018December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3

Manufacturers mainly more positive about future output

In October, manufacturers are mainly more positive about their future output than in September. Manufacturers’ opinions on order positions have also improved, to the highest level since 1985. Finally, manufacturers are also more positive about their stocks of finished products.

Manufacturers’ opinions on all three component indicators are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. There are fewer manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Confidence highest in electrotechnical products and machinery industry

In October, producer confidence has increased in more than half of the industries. Confidence is highest in the electrotechnical products and machinery industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 October 2021 (average of the component questions)September 2021 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery24.621.9
Timber and building materials22.823
Textiles, clothes, leather12.425.8
Paper and printing12.311.3
Metal129.5
Petroleum11.711.9
Food, beverages, tobacco5.86.3
Transport equipment43

Capacity utilisation rate lower

The industrial capacity utilisation rate stood at 83.8 percent at the start of Q4 2021. This is lower than in the previous quarter, when the rate was 84.1 percent.

Capacity utilisation rate, first month of the quarter
   Capacity utilisation rate (%) (%)
2018Quarter 183.5
2018Quarter 283.6
2018Quarter 384.5
2018Quarter 484.1
2019Quarter 183.9
2019Quarter 284.3
2019Quarter 384.3
2019Quarter 484
2020Quarter 182.7
2020Quarter 274.2
2020Quarter 376.9
2020Quarter 479.2
2021Quarter 180
2021Quarter 281.7
2021Quarter 384.1
2021Quarter 483.8

Manufacturing output almost 10 percent up in August

In August 2021, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 9.8 percent from August 2020. Output was up by 13.7 percent in the previous month. Compared to August 2019, growth was approximately 6 percent.

Producer confidence in Germany declining further

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In October, German producer confidence according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute fell due to both lower expectations and a lower assessment of the current situation. Supply bottlenecks drove capacity utilisation down 2.1 percentage points to 84.7 percent.

In August, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry grew by 2.1 percent year-on-year, as reported by Destatis. Relative to August 2019, however, it was still lower by 9.6 percent.