Economic growth of 7.8 percent in Q3 2020

The growth rate has been adjusted upwards. In the first estimate, which was published on 13 November, the growth rate stood at 7.7 percent. Compared to the first estimate, household consumption has been adjusted downwards, while government consumption has been adjusted upwards. For example, many more patients have been treated in hospitals than previously estimated. Investments have been adjusted upwards as well. The trade balance has been adjusted downwards.

More than half of this growth, the largest ever, can be attributed to the sharp increase in household consumption. Public consumption, the trade balance and investments also increased. However, growth in the third quarter did not compensate the decline in the first two quarters. Compared to Q4 2019, the Dutch economy contracted by 2.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2020, on balance.

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction, business services, accommodation and food services, government, care and financial institutions. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes amounting to - 0.1 and + 0.3 percentage points.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new GDP estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rates in previous quarters have not been adjusted.

Growth relative to Q3 2019

Year-on-year, GDP declined by 2.5 percent in Q3. In the first estimate, this was also 2.5 percent. 

165 thousand more jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 165 thousand in Q3 2020 compared to the previous quarter. The first estimate suggested an increase of 164 thousand jobs.

Relative to Q3 2019, the second estimate for Q3 2020 suggested a contraction of 51 thousand employee and self-employed jobs, versus 52 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional source data becomes available.