Economic growth of 7.8 percent in Q3 2020

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According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.8 percent in Q3 2020 relative to Q2 2020. The second GDP estimate is published approximately 90 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate has been adjusted upwards. In the first estimate, which was published on 13 November, the growth rate stood at 7.7 percent. Compared to the first estimate, household consumption has been adjusted downwards, while government consumption has been adjusted upwards. For example, many more patients have been treated in hospitals than previously estimated. Investments have been adjusted upwards as well. The trade balance has been adjusted downwards.

More than half of this growth, the largest ever, can be attributed to the sharp increase in household consumption. Public consumption, the trade balance and investments also increased. However, growth in the third quarter did not compensate the decline in the first two quarters. Compared to Q4 2019, the Dutch economy contracted by 2.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2020, on balance.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
   index (2010=100)
2013Quarter 1100.1
2013Quarter 299.9
2013Quarter 3100.5
2013Quarter 4101.1
2014Quarter 1101
2014Quarter 2101.6
2014Quarter 3101.9
2014Quarter 4102.8
2015Quarter 1103.4
2015Quarter 2103.7
2015Quarter 3104.1
2015Quarter 4104.1
2016Quarter 1105.1
2016Quarter 2105.3
2016Quarter 3106.5
2016Quarter 4107.4
2017Quarter 1107.9
2017Quarter 2108.9
2017Quarter 3109.7
2017Quarter 4110.5
2018Quarter 1111.1
2018Quarter 2111.7
2018Quarter 3112
2018Quarter 4112.4
2019Quarter 1113
2019Quarter 2113.4
2019Quarter 3113.8
2019Quarter 4114.3
2020Quarter 1112.6
2020Quarter 2103
2020Quarter 3110.9

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction, business services, accommodation and food services, government, care and financial institutions. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes amounting to - 0.1 and + 0.3 percentage points.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new GDP estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rates in previous quarters have not been adjusted.

Growth relative to Q3 2019

Year-on-year, GDP declined by 2.5 percent in Q3. In the first estimate, this was also 2.5 percent. 

GDP (volume)
   mutatie (year-on-year % change)
2013Quarter 1-1.7
2013Quarter 2-0.5
2013Quarter 30.3
2013Quarter 41.4
2014Quarter 11.3
2014Quarter 21.4
2014Quarter 31.1
2014Quarter 41.8
2015Quarter 11.9
2015Quarter 22.1
2015Quarter 32.5
2015Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.7
2018Quarter 22.8
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.8
2019Quarter 11.6
2019Quarter 21.7
2019Quarter 31.8
2019Quarter 41.6
2020Quarter 1-0.2
2020Quarter 2-9.4
2020Quarter 3-2.5

165 thousand more jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 165 thousand in Q3 2020 compared to the previous quarter. The first estimate suggested an increase of 164 thousand jobs.

Relative to Q3 2019, the second estimate for Q3 2020 suggested a contraction of 51 thousand employee and self-employed jobs, versus 52 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional source data becomes available.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2013Quarter 1-52
2013Quarter 2-22
2013Quarter 3-10
2013Quarter 4-12
2014Quarter 1-12
2014Quarter 218
2014Quarter 323
2014Quarter 429
2015Quarter 136
2015Quarter 233
2015Quarter 337
2015Quarter 442
2016Quarter 113
2016Quarter 254
2016Quarter 346
2016Quarter 454
2017Quarter 164
2017Quarter 266
2017Quarter 376
2017Quarter 473
2018Quarter 182
2018Quarter 267
2018Quarter 367
2018Quarter 447
2019Quarter 156
2019Quarter 238
2019Quarter 334
2019Quarter 456
2020Quarter 123
2020Quarter 2-297
2020Quarter 3165