Economic contraction of 1.5 percent in Q1 2020

© Hollandse Hoogte / Bert Spiertz
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 1.5 percent in Q1 2020 relative to Q4 2019. The second GDP estimate is published 90 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate has been adjusted upwards. In the first estimate, which was published on 15 May, contraction was 1.7 percent. Compared to the first estimate, investments in fixed assets, including investments in construction and R&D, have been adjusted upwards. Household consumption has been adjusted slightly upwards as well. However, the trade balance has been adjusted downwards. The overall picture of the economy has remained unchanged. GDP contraction in Q1 is mainly attributable to a decline in household consumption.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
   index (2010=100)
2013Quarter 1100.1
2013Quarter 299.9
2013Quarter 3100.5
2013Quarter 4101.1
2014Quarter 1101
2014Quarter 2101.6
2014Quarter 3101.9
2014Quarter 4102.8
2015Quarter 1103.4
2015Quarter 2103.7
2015Quarter 3104.1
2015Quarter 4104.1
2016Quarter 1105.1
2016Quarter 2105.3
2016Quarter 3106.5
2016Quarter 4107.4
2017Quarter 1107.9
2017Quarter 2108.9
2017Quarter 3109.7
2017Quarter 4110.5
2018Quarter 1111.1
2018Quarter 2111.7
2018Quarter 3112
2018Quarter 4112.4
2019Quarter 1113
2019Quarter 2113.4
2019Quarter 3113.8
2019Quarter 4114.3
2020Quarter 1112.6

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.04 percentage points over the past half decade, with the two extremes ranging between - 0.1 and + 0.2 percentage points.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2019, Q2 2019 and Q3 2019 has been adjusted from 0.3 to 0.4 percent, from 0.4 to 0.3 percent and from 0.4 to 0.5 percent respectively.

Growth relative to Q1 2019

Year-on-year, GDP declined by 0.2 percent. In the first estimate, contraction was 0.5 percent. The overall picture of the economy has remained unchanged. Year-on-year contraction was mainly due to lower household consumption and to stock movements.

Compared to the first estimate, output in the manufacturing industry has been adjusted upwards across the board. Production in the sectors construction, financial services, business services, public services and education was also higher than previously calculated.

GDP (volume)
   mutatie (year-on-year % change)
2013Quarter 1-1.7
2013Quarter 2-0.5
2013Quarter 30.3
2013Quarter 41.4
2014Quarter 11.3
2014Quarter 21.4
2014Quarter 31.1
2014Quarter 41.8
2015Quarter 11.9
2015Quarter 22.1
2015Quarter 32.5
2015Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.7
2018Quarter 22.8
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.8
2019Quarter 11.6
2019Quarter 21.7
2019Quarter 31.8
2019Quarter 41.6
2020Quarter 1-0.2

Annual figures

Simultaneously with the publication of the second estimate over Q1 2020, revised annual figures over 2018 (final) and 2019 (provisional) are published. On the basis of the most recent data, the economic growth rate for 2019 (provisionally) has been adjusted from 1.8 to 1.7 percent. The growth rate for 2018 has been adjusted from 2.6 to 2.4 percent.

22 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 22 thousand in Q1 2020 compared to Q4 2019. The first estimate suggested an increase of 23 thousand jobs.

In Q1 2020, the second estimate suggested a growth of 137 thousand employee and self-employed jobs compared to the same quarter in 2019, versus 135 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2013Quarter 1-52
2013Quarter 2-22
2013Quarter 3-11
2013Quarter 4-12
2014Quarter 1-12
2014Quarter 218
2014Quarter 323
2014Quarter 429
2015Quarter 136
2015Quarter 233
2015Quarter 337
2015Quarter 441
2016Quarter 114
2016Quarter 254
2016Quarter 346
2016Quarter 454
2017Quarter 164
2017Quarter 266
2017Quarter 378
2017Quarter 474
2018Quarter 181
2018Quarter 265
2018Quarter 367
2018Quarter 447
2019Quarter 157
2019Quarter 237
2019Quarter 335
2019Quarter 455
2020Quarter 122

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