Producer confidence hardly changed

© Nikki van Toorn (CBS)
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers has hardly changed in December 2019. Confidence stands at 2.9 in December, up from 2.8 in November. In December, manufacturers are less positive about their future output, but more positive about their order position and stocks.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 1.0. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-23.5) in February 2009. Optimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since October 2014.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
jaarmaandbalance (average of the component questions)
2016January3.2
2016February3.1
2016March3.9
2016April4.7
2016May4.4
2016June5.4
2016July5.1
2016August1.2
2016September3.4
2016October4.3
2016November3.4
2016December4.7
2017January6
2017February7
2017March7.8
2017April8.3
2017May6.1
2017June7.2
2017July6.6
2017August5.4
2017September8.5
2017October8.2
2017November9.1
2017December8.9
2018January10.3
2018February10.9
2018March9.5
2018April8.2
2018May9.8
2018June7.7
2018July6.3
2018August5.9
2018September5.7
2018October5.9
2018November7.2
2018December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9

Less positive about output, more positive about orders and stocks

In December, Dutch manufacturers are less positive about their future output. However they are more positive about their order position and their stocks of finished products.

Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output growth over the next three months outnumber those expecting output decline. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year.

However, manufacturers’ opinions on their stocks are negative. There are more manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Producers in timber and building materials industry most positive

Just as in the previous three months, producers in the timber and building materials industry have the most optimistic outlook. Although pessimism prevails in the transport equipment industry, confidence did improve. Producer confidence in the petroleum and chemical industry saw the strongest decline.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 December 2019 (average of the component questions)November 2019 (average of the component questions)
Timber and building materials14.214.4
Paper and printing89.9
Textiles, clothes, leather7.511.6
Food, beverages, tobacco5.44.5
Metal21.2
Electrotechnical products and machinery1.25.4
Petroleum0.62.4
Transport equipment-3-6.2

Manufacturing output 0.4 percent up in October

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 0.4 percent up in October 2019 compared to the same month last year. The year-on-year increase was somewhat smaller than in the previous month.

Confidence among German manufacturers less negative

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index in manufacturing the business climate index has improved in December. German manufacturers were less negative about their future output. In October, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was over 6 percent lower than in the same month last year. This is reported by Destatis.

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