Producer confidence hardly changed

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers has hardly changed in October. Confidence stands at 3.6, up from 3.3 in September. Producer confidence has remained largely unchanged in the past four months. In October, manufacturers are more positive about their future output than in the previous month.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 1.0. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-23.5) in February 2009. Optimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since October 2014.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
jaarmaandbalance
2015November4
December3
2016January3.2
February3.1
March3.9
April4.7
May4.4
June5.4
July5.1
August1.2
September3.4
October4.3
November3.4
December4.7
2017January6
February7
March7.8
April8.3
May6.1
June7.2
July6.6
August5.4
September8.5
October8.2
November9.1
December8.9
2018January10.3
February10.9
March9.5
April8.2
May9.8
June7.7
July6.3
August5.9
September5.7
October5.9
November7.2
December7.5
2019January5.8
February6.3
March6.1
April6.7
May4.7
Juni3.3
Juli 3.9
August3.9
September3.3
October3.6

More positive about ouput, less negative about stocks

In October, Dutch manufacturers are more positive about their future output and also less negative about their stocks of finished products. On the other hand, they are less positive about their order position.

Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output growth over the next three months outnumber those expecting output decline. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year.

However, manufacturers’ opinions on their stocks are negative. There are more manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Producers in the wood and building materials industry most positive

In October, producers in the wood and building materials industry have the most optimistic outlook. Pessimism still prevails in the transport equipment industry but producer confidence did exhibit the largest improvement here. Producer confidence in this industry increased from -11.4 in September to -6.2 in October.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
 October 2019September 2019
Timber and building materials14.415.3
Textiles, clothes, leather11.69.2
Paper and printing9.96.3
Electrotechnical products and machinery5.47.3
Food, beverages, tobacco4.53.2
Petroleum2.42.1
Metal1.20.4
Transport equipment-6.2-11.4

Industrial capacity utilisation declining slightly

At the beginning of Q4 2019, the industrial capacity utilisation rate stood at 84.0 percent, down from 84.3 percent in the previous quarter.

Capacity utilisation rate, first month of the quarter (%)
   Capacity utilisation rate
2016Quarter 181.2
Quarter 281.5
Quarter 381.7
Quarter 482.2
2017Quarter 181.3
Quarter 282.8
Quarter 383.4
Quarter 483.3
2018Quarter 183.5
Quarter 283.6
Quarter 384.5
Quarter 484.1
2019Quarter 183.9
Quarter 284.3
Quarter 384.3
Quarter 484.0

Manufacturing output slightly down in August

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 0.8 percent down in August 2019 compared to the same month last year. This was the sixth consecutive month with a decline in daily output.

Confidence among German manufacturers less negative

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index in manufacturing the business climate index has improved in October for the first time in five months. German manufacturers were less negative about their future output. On the other hand, they were slightly less positive about their ongoing business. In October, the industrial capacity utilisation rate in Germany has declined by 1.3 percentage points  to 82.6 percent. In August, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was 4 percent lower than in the same month last year.

Related items