Dutch manufacturers more positive

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers has improved in July 2019. Confidence stands at 3.9, up from 3.3 in June. Manufacturers are mainly less negative about future output and more positive about their stocks.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 1.0. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-23.5) in February 2009. Optimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since October 2014.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
jaarmaandbalance (average of the component questions)
2015August3.5
2015September3.8
2015October2.4
2015November4
2015December3
2016January3.2
2016February3.1
2016March3.9
2016April4.7
2016May4.4
2016June5.4
2016July5.1
2016August1.2
2016September3.4
2016October4.3
2016November3.4
2016December4.7
2017January6
2017February7
2017March7.8
2017April8.3
2017May6.1
2017June7.2
2017July6.6
2017August5.4
2017September8.5
2017October8.2
2017November9.1
2017December8.9
2018January10.3
2018February10.9
2018March9.5
2018April8.2
2018May9.8
2018June7.7
2018July6.3
2018August5.9
2018September5.7
2018October5.9
2018November7.2
2018December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9

Less negative about future output, more positive about stocks

In July, Dutch manufacturers are less negative about their future output. They are also more positive about their stocks of finished products but less positive about their order positions than in the previous month.

Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. There are also more manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too small rather than too large.

The component indicator future output is slightly negative. Manufacturers who anticipate output decline over the next three months outnumber those expecting output growth.

Producers of textiles, clothes and leather the most positive

In July, producers in the textiles, clothing and leather industry have the most optimistic outlook. Pessimism prevails and has increased slightly in the transport equipment industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 July 2019 (average of the component questions)June 2019 (average of the component questions)
Textiles, clothes, leather1314.9
Timber and building materials7.49.1
Electrotechnical products and machinery64.7
Food, beverages, tobacco5.44.7
Metal4.4-1.7
Paper and printing3.98.6
Petroleum3.32.1
Transport equipment-5.7-3.6

Industrial capacity utilisation at the same rate

At the beginning of Q3 2019, the industrial capacity utilisation rate stood at 84.3 percent. This is the same rate as in the previous quarter.

Capacity utilisation rate, first month of the quarter
   Capacity utilisation rate (%)
Quarter 482.3
2016Quarter 181.2
2016Quarter 281.5
2016Quarter 381.7
2016Quarter 482.2
2017Quarter 181.3
2017Quarter 282.8
2017Quarter 383.4
2017Quarter 483.3
2018Quarter 183.5
2018Quarter 283.6
2018Quarter 384.5
2018Quarter 484.1
2019Quarter 183.9
2019Quarter 284.3
2019Quarter 384.3

Manufacturing output almost 2 percent down in May

In May 2019, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 1.8 percent down on the same month last year. In the previous month, output was 1.0 percent down year-on-year. In May, output in the electrical and electronics industry showed the strongest year-on-year growth.

Confidence among German manufacturers declining sharply

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index, in manufacturing the business climate index took a serious tumble in July. It is the strongest decline since the beginning of 2009. In May, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was over 4 percent lower than in the same month last year.

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