More deaths than births in Q1

© Hollandse Hoogte
There were 6 thousand more deaths in the Netherlands than live births in the first quarter of 2018. Immigration exceeded emigration by 18.5 thousand. On balance, the population grew by 12.5 thousand, based on preliminary figures calculated by Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

In recent years, the balance of births and deaths (i.e. the natural population increase) has been negative in the first quarter of a calendar year; this time, demographic decline was even greater. Total population growth was 5 thousand less than one year previously, due to lower net migration.

 Natural population growth
2012 I5.234
2012 II9.373
2012 III13.429
2012 IV7.11
2013 I1.488
2013 II7.384
2013 III13.8
2013 IV7.424
2014 I6.694
2014 II10.02
2014 III12.789
2014 IV6.455
2015 I-1.515
2015 II6.715
2015 III11.977
2015 IV6.199
2016 I1.046
2016 II7.187
2016 III12.065
2016 IV3.225
2017* I-2.245
2017* II6.14
2017* III10.888
2017* IV4.39
2018* I-5.969

 

Relatively high mortality, slightly fewer births

Mortality in this year’s first quarter was relatively high at 45.5 thousand. This is 3 thousand more deaths than in the same quarter of 2017, when the mortality rate was quite high already. The year 2018 is characterised by a long-lasting flu epidemic and several cold spells.
There were relatively many deaths among elderly people. In Q1 2018, mortality among people aged 80 and over was 29 percent above the annual average of 2017, while Q1 2017 showed a mortality rate among this group of 19 percent. The year-on-year gap in mortality was even wider relatively among the group of 65 to 79-year-olds: 19 percent above the annual average in Q1 2018, versus 9 percent one year previously.

 BirthsDeaths
2016 403.4162.686
2016 413.3082.932
2016 423.2982.744
2016 433.172.951
2016 443.1682.731
2016 453.1392.907
2016 463.142.899
2016 473.0932.908
2016 483.1092.95
2016 493.0053.04
2016 503.1313.128
2016 513.2333.071
2016 522.8483.797
2017* 13.163.569
2017* 23.1413.636
2017* 33.1353.491
2017* 43.3413.626
2017* 53.233.573
2017* 63.213.446
2017* 73.1423.417
2017* 82.9523.328
2017* 93.1323.152
2017* 102.9843.053
2017* 112.9852.845
2017* 123.1272.78
2017* 133.0642.852
2017* 143.0732.764
2017* 153.2442.809
2017* 163.0612.713
2017* 173.2832.775
2017* 183.1612.771
2017* 193.1972.802
2017* 203.2812.802
2017* 213.2122.774
2017* 223.2232.702
2017* 233.0912.622
2017* 243.2882.642
2017* 253.2192.628
2017* 263.4142.691
2017* 273.3462.697
2017* 283.4112.518
2017* 293.3822.675
2017* 303.4962.571
2017* 313.5342.509
2017* 323.4562.657
2017* 333.3572.539
2017* 343.4742.542
2017* 353.4212.574
2017* 363.4612.569
2017* 373.4472.704
2017* 383.4842.715
2017* 393.4652.671
2017* 403.3452.642
2017* 413.3342.764
2017* 423.2762.706
2017* 433.2522.677
2017* 443.2872.724
2017* 453.2922.799
2017* 463.2492.916
2017* 473.172.914
2017* 483.1712.884
2017* 493.1213.022
2017* 503.1763.207
2017* 513.1813.069
2017* 522.9443.184
2018* 13.0183.34
2018* 23.1573.358
2018* 33.2713.362
2018* 43.2433.318
2018* 53.0523.399
2018* 63.0783.509
2018* 73.0913.651
2018* 83.053.684
2018* 92.9283.928
2018* 102.9974.08
2018* 112.9523.72
2018* 123.0563.421
2018* 133.153.204



In the previous quarter, 39.6 thousand babies were born, which is over 500 below the number in Q1 2017. The Netherlands has seen a relatively low birth rate for several years. There is a fairly high probability of natural population decline in periods of excess mortality, especially during the winter months, with more deaths than general and fewer births than during the summer months.
During the rest of the year, there are fewer deaths and more births, which leads to a positive population growth rate on balance for the whole year. As the group of elderly is growing, the annual number of deaths may be expected to grow as well. The population forecast projects a natural increase until 2038, followed by a higher number of deaths than births thereafter.

More immigrants than emigrants

The population of the Netherlands has mainly grown on account of immigration in recent years. In the first few months of 2018 as well, more people settled in the country (53 thousand) than left (35 thousand). Net migration stood at 18.5 thousand, more than 1 thousand lower than in Q1 2017. Immigration in Q1 was lower than one year previously.

Over the past few years, the Netherlands have received a large number of migrants from Syria. They have constituted the largest group of migrants over the past three years. The influx of this group has now decreased; on balance, 1.3 thousand Syrians registered in Dutch municipalities during Q1 2018, versus over 6 thousand one year previously. Due to increased inflows of migrants from other countries - from Europe, Africa and the Americas – there was hardly any change in net migration. Migrants from Poland made up the largest group in Q1 for the first time since Q4 2014 with 2.5 thousand migrants on balance.

 PolandSyria
2012 I1.90
2012 II1.80
2012 III3.10.1
2012 IV1.80.2
2013 I2.50.3
2013 II2.40.3
2013 III2.90.4
2013 IV2.10.8
2014 I3.71.2
2014 II31.5
2014 III3.12.4
2014 IV2.33.4
2015 I2.74.8
2015 II2.14.2
2015 III3.15.2
2015 IV1.86.4
2016 I2.27.9
2016 II2.77.1
2016 III2.45.5
2016 IV1.77
2017* I2.36.2
2017* II2.34.7
2017* III2.63.1
2017* IV2.22.2
2018* I2.51.3