Business confidence improves, despite economic uncertainty

• The sharp rise in business confidence follows a sharp fall in the previous quarter. 
• Almost four in five businesses have experienced increased economic uncertainty over the past year. 
• Geopolitical factors are the main cause of increased uncertainty, businesses report.

Business confidence rose to -5.3 at the start of Q3 2026. This was the largest increase since July 2021. However, it comes after a sharp fall in business confidence earlier this year. Additionally, 78 percent of businesses report greater economic uncertainty over the past year, mainly due to geopolitical factors such as the crisis in the Middle East. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the Dutch Chamber of Commerce (KvK), the Economic Institute for Construction and Housing (EIB), the Dutch Organisation for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MKB-Nederland) and the Dutch Employers’ Organisation (VNO-NCW) on the basis of the Netherlands Business Survey.

Businesses are less negative about the economic outlook for the next three months (-1.4) than they are about the past three months (-9.3). However, at -5.3, business confidence remains below the average of -3.8.

Business confidence less negative across almost all sectors

Business confidence has improved across most sectors of the economy. Confidence only deteriorated slightly in one sector: car trade and repair. It improved by the most in the construction sector and in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Even so, confidence remains at its lowest in these sectors, together with accommodation and food services. Despite negative business confidence in the construction sector, many other indicators, such as order book expectations and staffing, are positive. The only two sectors with business confidence in positive territory are information and communication, and culture, sport and leisure. Meanwhile, business confidence in the manufacturing sector has risen to its highest level since early 2022.

Geopolitics is the main factor in increased uncertainty

Over the past year, 78 percent of firms report facing increased economic uncertainty. According to 42 percent of businesses, geopolitical factors (such as wars or tensions over trade) are the main cause of this uncertainty. The manufacturing sector in particular, but also the transport and storage sector, are affected the most by geopolitical tensions.

For almost a quarter of firms, changes in demand or in the market are the main cause of increased uncertainty. For 22 percent, the availability of staff, suppliers or means of production is the main cause. Businesses in the information and communications sector and the business services sector are more likely to mention these two reasons. According to just over 18 percent of firms, the rise in uncertainty is due to domestic policy or regulation, particularly in the real estate activities sector and in agriculture, forestry and fisheries.

Most businesses focusing on internal flexibility in response to uncertainty

Among firms that said they had experienced greater economic uncertainty, almost three-quarters were taking action in response. The most frequently cited step was improving internal flexibility, such as deploying staff more flexibly or adapting work and processes to changing circumstances more quickly; 36 percent of businesses reported this. In addition, 23 percent of firms are responding to increased uncertainty by building up a financial buffer and improved liquidity management. 22 percent of firms have reduced or postponed investment. In addition, 13 percent of businesses have diversified their suppliers, customers or markets. Building up larger stocks was the action mentioned the least frequently in response to increased uncertainty.