Inflation at 3.3 percent in May according to flash estimate

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Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports in a flash estimate that the CPI-measured inflation rate stood at 3.3 percent in May 2025. The flash estimate is based on source data that is not yet complete. In April, the inflation rate stood at 4.1 percent.
Inflation is measured each month as the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) relative to the same month of the previous year. The CPI not only provides an insight into how prices changed relative to one year previously (inflation) but also compared to the previous month. Prices for consumer goods and services were 0.5 percent lower than they were in April.

The regular consumer price index (CPI) figures for May will be published on 12 June.


Short-term price trends

The CPI not only provides an insight into price changes relative to one year previously (the CPI inflation rate), but also compared to the previous month. According to the flash estimate, consumer prices fell by 0.5 percent in May relative to April.

It should be noted that when comparing two different months in the same year, seasonal influences must be taken into account. For example, airline tickets are more expensive in holiday months than outside the holiday season. These higher prices are temporary rather than structural, however. Month-on-month changes are often more volatile than year-on-year changes as a result of seasonal influences like this.

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Price changes across various product groups

In addition to the inflation rate, CBS also publishes price changes for a number of product groups as part of its flash estimate. These product groups are aggregations of spending categories for a particular theme, such as ‘all services’. The price change of all categories in the CPI will be published on 12 June.


HICP flash estimate

CBS publishes two different figures for inflation. One is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the other on the European Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). According to the HICP flash estimate, inflation stood at 3.0 percent in May. In April, the inflation rate stood at 4.1 percent.

In order to facilitate comparison between countries, EU member states calculate their consumer price indices according to internationally agreed definitions and methods. Eurostat uses the HICP figures from all EU countries to calculate the inflation rate for the euro area and the European Union. The European Central Bank (ECB) uses the HICP to formulate its monetary policies for the euro area. In addition, most countries publish a national consumer price index.

In the case of the Netherlands, the main difference between the CPI and the HICP is that the HICP does not take account of costs related to home ownership, while the CPI does. In the CPI, these costs are calculated based on changes in rents for housing. However, this is not the only difference. The differences are explained in greater detail in the article linked below.

New base year CPI with effect from 2026

With effect from 2026, a new base year will be used for the CPI and the HICP, from 2015=100 to 2025=100. It is worth noting that these changes will not affect the inflation rates that have already been published. At the same time, the classification of goods and services will be updated, in order to reflect changes in consumption patterns better. With effect from 2026, the CPI will also be brought more into line with the HICP. The first figures based on the new series with 2025 as the base year will be published in early February 2026. More information on the method used can be found in the Consumer price index from 2026.

Sources

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