Business confidence down again in Q2 2025

© CBS / Nikki van Toorn
Business confidence has fallen for the second consecutive quarter, reaching -7.5 in the second quarter of 2025. The fall was particularly noticeable in the wholesale and commission trade, and in business services. Nevertheless, fewer entrepreneurs are experiencing difficulties and export-oriented companies are positive about their sales abroad. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the Dutch Chamber of Commerce (KvK), the EIB, the Dutch Organisation for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MKB-Nederland) and the Dutch Employers’ Organisation (VNO-NCW) on the basis of the April edition of the Netherlands Business Survey (COEN).

Despite greater uncertainty regarding the economic climate, there was only a marginal fall in business confidence. Although expectations among entrepreneurs for the current quarter are significantly more negative, they became less negative about economic conditions in the previous quarter. Business confidence is below the average (-3.7) for the series since 2012, however.

Largest drop in wholesale trade and commission trade

Business confidence fell in five industrial sectors, rose in six and remained virtually unchanged in one. The largest drop was in the wholesale trade and commission trade (from -3.2 to -12.2). Business services also saw a sharp drop, and the figure turned from positive to negative. Business confidence improved the most in agriculture, forestry and fishing, and in the accommodation and food services sector. Nevertheless, confidence in that sector remains the most negative, along with the transportation and storage sector and and the wholesale and commission trade. In information and communication, business confidence rose and the figure is moderately positive.

 

More companies experiencing staff shortages

Entrepreneurs still cite labour shortages the most often as the main obstacle to their business operations. However, the share of companies mentioning labour shartages has been falling in recent years, down to 34 percent at the beginning of Q2 2025. The share of companies currently experiencing no obstacles has slowly been growing over the past two and a half years to reach 36 percent. It is now larger than the number of companies experiencing labour shortages.

There were almost no changes with respect to the other types of obstacles. Weak demand was the main obstacle reported by 19 percent of entrepreneurs. The share of companies experiencing financial contraints as an obstacle has slowly increased in recent quarters and is now relatively high at 10 percent.

Export-oriented companies positive about sales abroad

Despite increased uncertainty around international trade, export-oriented companies were positive about their sales abroad at the start of Q2 2025. The assessment of sales abroad is the average of the change in sales over the past quarter and the sales outlook for the current quarter. Of the industrial sectors surveyed, manufacturing has by far the largest share of Dutch exports.

Export-oriented companies in the wholesale and commission trade are the most likely to be positive regarding their sales abroad, at +18 percent overall. They have also seen the largest increase since one year ago. Companies in manufacturing, information and communications, and business services were also more positive about their sales abroad. Only in agriculture, forestry, and fishing has sentiment worsened on this point. The only sector in which export-oriented companies were negative overall on sales abroad was transportation and storage, with a net score of less than -3 percent.

Sources

Related items