Economic contraction 0.3 percent in Q3 2023

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Ramon van Flymen
According to the second estimate by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3 percent in Q3 2023 relative to Q2 2023. In the first estimate, which was published on 14 November, contraction amounted to 0.2 percent. The second GDP estimate is published 85 days after the quarter end date.

The economic contraction was slightly larger than in the first estimate. The household consumption in particular has been adjusted downwards. Investments have been adjusted downwards as well. The contraction in Q3 can mainly be attributed to declining investments in fixed assets, a decline in inventory changes and a decrease in household consumption.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2017Quarter 1104
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.4
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109.2
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.7
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.9
2020Quarter 299.8
2020Quarter 3106.2
2020Quarter 4106.8
2021Quarter 1108.1
2021Quarter 2111.4
2021Quarter 3113.7
2021Quarter 4114.5
2022Quarter 1115.1
2022Quarter 2117.1
2022Quarter 3117.3
2022Quarter 4118.1
2023Quarter 1117.5
2023Quarter 2117
2023Quarter 3116.6

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the quarter end date. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the quarter end, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy is collected, e.g. data on the construction, business services, accommodation and food services, government care and the financial sectors. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.1 percentage points over the past five years (2018-2022), with the two extremes -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both occurring in 2021.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted figures of previously published quarters. This has not led to an adjustment of GDP growth in the previous three quarters.

Growth relative to Q3 2022

Year on year, GDP decreased by 0.8 percent in Q3 2023. In the first estimate, the decline was 0.6 percent. The downward adjustment is caused by new figures on the manufacturing, trade and travel and temporary employment sectors.

The overall picture has not changed. The contraction was mainly related to lower exports of goods and services, natural gas inventory and household consumption.

GDP (volume)
YearQuarterIndex (year-on-year % change)
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23.0
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.6
2018Quarter 22.7
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.9
2019Quarter 11.8
2019Quarter 21.9
2019Quarter 32.1
2019Quarter 42.0
2020Quarter 1-0.3
2020Quarter 2-8.8
2020Quarter 3-3.3
2020Quarter 4-2.9
2021Quarter 1-1.1
2021Quarter 211.8
2021Quarter 36.9
2021Quarter 47.4
2022Quarter 16.4
2022Quarter 25.2
2022Quarter 33.0
2022Quarter 42.9
2023Quarter 11.9
2023Quarter 2-0.2
2023Quarter 3-0.8

28 thousand more jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employed and self-employed jobs increased by 28 thousand in Q3 2023 relative to Q2 2023. The first estimate resulted in an increase of 31 thousand jobs.

Furthermore, the second estimate for Q3 2023 showed a year-on-year increase of 142 thousand employed and self-employed jobs, versus 147 thousand according to the first estimate.

Employment figures have been updated based on additional source data.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2017Quarter 162
2017Quarter 268
2017Quarter 377
2017Quarter 476
2018Quarter 176
2018Quarter 265
2018Quarter 366
2018Quarter 458
2019Quarter 162
2019Quarter 238
2019Quarter 335
2019Quarter 452
2020Quarter 16
2020Quarter 2-303
2020Quarter 3173
2020Quarter 41
2021Quarter 15
2021Quarter 2142
2021Quarter 3172
2021Quarter 469
2022Quarter 1125
2022Quarter 2108
2022Quarter 376
2022Quarter 468
2023Quarter 129
2023Quarter 210
2023Quarter 328