Producer food prices down in first half, no fall in consumer prices

04/10/2023 15:00

Producer prices of food products were 4.2 percent lower in July than in January 2023. This includes prices of imported products. Prices paid by Dutch consumers for food products went up by 3.7 percent. Less than 15 percent of food producers expect rising selling prices in the next 3 months. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) based on a further analysis of the consumer price index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), and results of the Netherlands Business Survey (COEN).

The so-called total consumption prices of producers consist of two parts. On the one hand, these are the prices charged by Dutch food companies to domestic customers. On the other hand, it concerns import prices paid by Dutch companies for industrially produced food products. Approximately half of the food products consumed in the Netherlands is imported from other countries.

Prices of total consumption by food producers rose by 31 percent in July 2023, relative to with June 2020. Consumer food products became 24 percent more expensive in the same period. Consumer prices of food often follow producer prices with some delay. Long-term contracts are often in place, so it may take some time for supermarkets to pay the higher prices to wholesalers or manufacturers.

Producer price index and consumer price index of food products
Jaar	Maand	Producer prices (June 2020 = 100)	Consumer prices (June 2020 = 100)
2020	June	100	100
2020	July	99.4	99.8
2020	August	99.1	99.4
2020	September	99.5	99.2
2020	October	100.2	99.1
2020	November	100.5	98.7
2020	December	100.8	98.3
2021	January	102.1	97.6
2021	February	103.8	98.5
2021	March	105.2	97.7
2021	April	107.1	97.5
2021	May	107.6	98.3
2021	June	107.7	98.4
2021	July	108.6	98.9
2021	August	108.9	99.6
2021	September	109.6	99.2
2021	October	111.3	99.4
2021	November	112.5	99.8
2021	December	113.6	100.8
2022	January	117.6	101.8
2022	February	120.5	103.3
2022	March	124.6	103.8
2022	April	130.9	105.8
2022	May	133.2	107.2
2022	June	133.1	109.5
2022	July	135	111.1
2022	August	134.7	112.6
2022	September	134.8	111.9
2022	October	136.3	113.3
2022	November	135.8	115.5
2022	December	135	118
2023	January	137	119.7
2023	February	136.2	122.3
2023	March*	136.2	122.9
2023	April*	135.3	122.6
2023	May*	134.8	123.6
2023	June*	133.1	123.9
2023	July*	131.3	124.1
*preliminary figures

Producer price index and consumer price index of food products
Jaar	Maand	Producer prices (June 2020 = 100)	Consumer prices (June 2020 = 100)
2020	June	100	100
2020	July	99.4	99.8
2020	August	99.1	99.4
2020	September	99.5	99.2
2020	October	100.2	99.1
2020	November	100.5	98.7
2020	December	100.8	98.3
2021	January	102.1	97.6
2021	February	103.8	98.5
2021	March	105.2	97.7
2021	April	107.1	97.5
2021	May	107.6	98.3
2021	June	107.7	98.4
2021	July	108.6	98.9
2021	August	108.9	99.6
2021	September	109.6	99.2
2021	October	111.3	99.4
2021	November	112.5	99.8
2021	December	113.6	100.8
2022	January	117.6	101.8
2022	February	120.5	103.3
2022	March	124.6	103.8
2022	April	130.9	105.8
2022	May	133.2	107.2
2022	June	133.1	109.5
2022	July	135	111.1
2022	August	134.7	112.6
2022	September	134.8	111.9
2022	October	136.3	113.3
2022	November	135.8	115.5
2022	December	135	118
2023	January	137	119.7
2023	February	136.2	122.3
2023	March*	136.2	122.9
2023	April*	135.3	122.6
2023	May*	134.8	123.6
2023	June*	133.1	123.9
2023	July*	131.3	124.1
*preliminary figures

Prices paid by consumers for food products remained relatively long below June 2020 levels. In December 2021, consumer food prices exceeded mid-2020 prices for the first time. For prices paid by producers, this was the case from October that year. Producer prices are strongly linked to food prices on the world market.

Decline in dairy producer prices not yet reflected in consumer prices

In July 2023, producer prices of dairy products were 18 percent lower than in the same period of the previous year. Over the same period, prices paid by consumers for these products rose by 12 percent. As of September 2022, dairy producer prices fell while consumer prices continued to rise. However, dairy product prices did stabilise from February this year.

Producer price index and consumer price index dairy products
Jaar	Maand	Producer prices (June 2020 = 100)	Consumer prices (June 2020 = 100)
2020	June	100	100
2020	July	100.3	100.2
2020	August	99.7	100.3
2020	september	99.1	100.1
2020	October	99.1	99.9
2020	November	100.1	99.8
2020	December	100.8	99.7
2021	January	101.3	98.0
2021	February	103.1	99.4
2021	March	105.4	99.6
2021	April	107.3	100.0
2021	May	108.2	100.6
2021	June	108.4	100.3
2021	July	108.7	100.9
2021	August	108.8	101.6
2021	September	110.5	100.8
2021	October	113.2	101.6
2021	November	114.8	102.3
2021	december	117.3	102.9
2022	January	124.5	103.9
2022	February	127	106.2
2022	March	133.1	106.5
2022	april	138.3	109.4
2022	May	140.6	111.2
2022	June	139.6	115.4
2022	July	142.3	118.4
2022	August	141.5	120.2
2022	September	141.8	121.3
2022	October	140.5	124.2
2022	November	138.4	127.1
2022	December	134.5	132.1
2023	January	130.3	133.0
2023	February	126.5	135.7
2023	March*	123.9	135.4
2023	April*	121.4	135.4
2023	May*	120.5	135.7
2023	June*	119.5	134.9
2023	July*	116.8	132.5
*preliminary figurs

Producer price index and consumer price index dairy products
Jaar	Maand	Producer prices (June 2020 = 100)	Consumer prices (June 2020 = 100)
2020	June	100	100
2020	July	100.3	100.2
2020	August	99.7	100.3
2020	september	99.1	100.1
2020	October	99.1	99.9
2020	November	100.1	99.8
2020	December	100.8	99.7
2021	January	101.3	98.0
2021	February	103.1	99.4
2021	March	105.4	99.6
2021	April	107.3	100.0
2021	May	108.2	100.6
2021	June	108.4	100.3
2021	July	108.7	100.9
2021	August	108.8	101.6
2021	September	110.5	100.8
2021	October	113.2	101.6
2021	November	114.8	102.3
2021	december	117.3	102.9
2022	January	124.5	103.9
2022	February	127	106.2
2022	March	133.1	106.5
2022	april	138.3	109.4
2022	May	140.6	111.2
2022	June	139.6	115.4
2022	July	142.3	118.4
2022	August	141.5	120.2
2022	September	141.8	121.3
2022	October	140.5	124.2
2022	November	138.4	127.1
2022	December	134.5	132.1
2023	January	130.3	133.0
2023	February	126.5	135.7
2023	March*	123.9	135.4
2023	April*	121.4	135.4
2023	May*	120.5	135.7
2023	June*	119.5	134.9
2023	July*	116.8	132.5
*preliminary figurs

Meat consumer prices increased less than producer prices

As of June 2020, consumer prices for meat rose by 23 percent. Producers paid 33 percent more for meat over the same period, while prices paid by consumers mainly increased from December 2021. Before that, meat consumer prices were still below the June 2020 price. As of the first quarter of 2021, prices of total consumption for food producers were already above the June 2020 prices.

Producer price index and consumer price index meat
Jaar	Maand	Producer prices (June 2020 = 100)	Consumer prices (June 2020 = 100)
2020	June	100.0	100.0
2020	July	97.8	100.1
2020	August	97.7	99.7
2020	september	98.3	100.1
2020	October	98.9	99.6
2020	November	97.7	99.4
2020	december	97.2	98.3
2021	January	98.3	97.7
2021	February	99.0	98.3
2021	March	101.6	98.2
2021	April	104.8	97.9
2021	May	106.3	98.3
2021	June	107.1	98.4
2021	July	107.2	98.7
2021	August	107.2	99.4
2021	September	107.8	99.1
2021	October	106.7	99.3
2021	November	107.0	98.7
2021	December	107.7	100.2
2022	January	109.3	100.4
2022	February	111.4	102.0
2022	March	117.2	103.6
2022	April	127.3	108.1
2022	May	128.9	112.0
2022	June	129.7	114.3
2022	July	131.8	114.6
2022	August	133.3	116.2
2022	September	133.3	115.6
2022	October	135.2	116.4
2022	November	133.3	117.3
2022	December	133.6	118.7
2023	January	133.1	118.2
2023	February	133.0	119.4
2023	March*	136.5	120.0
2023	April*	136.9	120.2
2023	May*	136.9	121.7
2023	June*	134.8	122.1
2023	July*	132.6	123.4
*preliminary figures

Producer price index and consumer price index meat
Jaar	Maand	Producer prices (June 2020 = 100)	Consumer prices (June 2020 = 100)
2020	June	100.0	100.0
2020	July	97.8	100.1
2020	August	97.7	99.7
2020	september	98.3	100.1
2020	October	98.9	99.6
2020	November	97.7	99.4
2020	december	97.2	98.3
2021	January	98.3	97.7
2021	February	99.0	98.3
2021	March	101.6	98.2
2021	April	104.8	97.9
2021	May	106.3	98.3
2021	June	107.1	98.4
2021	July	107.2	98.7
2021	August	107.2	99.4
2021	September	107.8	99.1
2021	October	106.7	99.3
2021	November	107.0	98.7
2021	December	107.7	100.2
2022	January	109.3	100.4
2022	February	111.4	102.0
2022	March	117.2	103.6
2022	April	127.3	108.1
2022	May	128.9	112.0
2022	June	129.7	114.3
2022	July	131.8	114.6
2022	August	133.3	116.2
2022	September	133.3	115.6
2022	October	135.2	116.4
2022	November	133.3	117.3
2022	December	133.6	118.7
2023	January	133.1	118.2
2023	February	133.0	119.4
2023	March*	136.5	120.0
2023	April*	136.9	120.2
2023	May*	136.9	121.7
2023	June*	134.8	122.1
2023	July*	132.6	123.4
*preliminary figures

Fewer food producers expect rising prices

In the next 3 months, fewer food producers expect rising selling prices. In August 2023, nearly 15 percent of companies said they expect rising prices in the next 3 months, down from 52 percent in January. Almost 8 in 10 companies do not expect sales prices to change substantially. Falling prices are expected by 6 percent of food producers, while in July this was 10 percent.

Food industry sales price expectations in next 3 months
Periode	Sales prices will increase (% companies)	Sales prices remain the same (% companies)	Sales prices will decrease (% companies)
2023 January	52	43.7	4.3
2023 February	36	60.5	3.5
2023 March	33.3	62.2	4.5
2023 April	27.2	66.8	6.0
2023 May	18.3	74.7	7.0
2023 June	15.6	74.6	9.8
2023 July	14.8	75.6	9.6
2023 August	14.7	79.3	6

Food industry sales price expectations in next 3 months
Periode	Sales prices will increase (% companies)	Sales prices remain the same (% companies)	Sales prices will decrease (% companies)
2023 January	52	43.7	4.3
2023 February	36	60.5	3.5
2023 March	33.3	62.2	4.5
2023 April	27.2	66.8	6.0
2023 May	18.3	74.7	7.0
2023 June	15.6	74.6	9.8
2023 July	14.8	75.6	9.6
2023 August	14.7	79.3	6

Sources

StatLine - Producer Price Index (PPI); output and importprices by product, 2015=100
StatLine - Consumer prices; price index 2015=100

Decline in dairy producer prices not yet reflected in consumer prices

Meat consumer prices increased less than producer prices

Fewer food producers expect rising prices

Sources

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