The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Consumer confidence slightly less negative
In September 2023, Dutch consumers were marginally less negative than they were in the previous month. Consumer confidence was positioned well below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producers were as negative as in August. Producer confidence was also below the 20-year average.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Household consumption and investments up, exports down
Households spent 0.4 percent more in July 2023 year on year, adjusted for price changes and the shopping-day pattern. They purchased more services, but fewer goods.
The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was up by 3.3 percent year on year. This is mainly due to higher investments in transport equipment (passenger cars, other road transport and aircraft) and buildings.
In July, the total volume of goods exports (adjusted for number of working days) fell by 0.9 percent year on year. The contraction was virtually the same as in the previous month. The decrease in July was mainly seen in exports of metal and chemical products.
Manufacturing output over 8 percent down in July
In July 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 8.3 percent lower than in July 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the preceding months of 2023. Manufacturing output fell by 0.6 percent between June and July.
More bankruptcies in August
Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 12 more bankruptcies in August 2023 than in the previous month, i.e. an increase of 5 percent. Year on year, however, the number of bankruptcies has increased for 16 months in a row.
House prices almost 5 percent lower in August
In August 2023, prices of owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 4.8 percent lower than in August 2022. The year-on-year decrease is smaller than in the previous three months. Relative to July 2023, prices rose by 0.6 percent.
Fewer hours worked and vacancies, more unemployed
In Q2 2023, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 0.2 percent lower than in the previous quarter. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q2 2023 amounted to over 3.6 billion.
At the end of June, there were 427 thousand unfilled vacancies, 10 thousand fewer than at the end of March 2023. After eight quarters of growth, between mid-2020 and mid-2022, the number of vacancies has decreased from the third quarter of 2022.
In August 2023, 364 thousand people aged 15 to 74 years were unemployed. This is 3.6 percent of the labour force. Over the three months June through August, unemployment increased by 4 thousand per month on average
In Q2 2023, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies fell by 0.3 percent relative to the previous quarter.
Economic contraction 0.2 percent in Q2 2023
According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by CBS, in Q2 2023 the volume of gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 percent relative to the previous quarter. In Q1 2023, GDP fell by 0.4 percent. The contraction in Q2 is mainly due to a decrease in the trade balance and in household consumption.