Producer confidence negative

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Frank Muller / Zorginbeeld
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the mood among Dutch manufacturers was negative in August. Producer confidence declined from 0.1 in July to -2.2 in August. For the first time since 2021, negative manufacturers prevailed over positive manufacturers. The decline is largely because manufacturers were more negative about expected output in the next three months.

In August, producer confidence was below the 20-year average of 1.4. It reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7
2021December10.2
2022January9
2022February8.5
2022March8.7
2022April10.8
2022May9.9
2022June8.1
2022July8.4
2022August4.6
2022September2.6
2022October2.5
2022November3
2022December3.3
2023January3.6
2023February3.7
2023March4
2023April 3
2023May2.1
2023June1
2023July0.1
2023August-2.2

Opinions on expected output deteriorated in particular

Manufacturers were mainly more negative about expected output in the next three months. They were also less positive about their order positions and more negative about current stocks of finished products.

Two component indicators were negative. Manufacturers anticipating output to decrease over the next three months outnumber those expecting an increase. More manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as large rather than small.

One component was positive. The majority of manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year.

Producer confidence: component indicators (seasonally adjusted)
 August 2023 (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)July 2023 (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)
Producer confidence-2.20.1
Opinion on order books2.63.9
Expected output-3.80.8
Stocks of finished products-5.5-4.4

Producer confidence down in almost all industries

In almost all manufacturing industries, producer confidence deteriorated in August. Just as in the preceding months, confidence was highest in the electrotechnical and machinery industry. Confidence was again lowest in the timber and building materials industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 August 2023 (average of the component questions)July 2023 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery10.213.6
Textiles, clothes, leather1.51.4
Paper and printing0.20.4
Transport equipment-0.71.6
Food, beverages, tobacco-2.5-0.5
Metal-5.4-4.9
Petroleum-11.6-6.4
Timber and building materials-17.3-16.7

Manufacturing output almost 8 percent down in June

About three weeks ago, CBS reported that in June 2023 the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 7.7 percent lower than in June 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the preceding months of 2023.