Producer confidence picking up again

© CBS / Alrik Swagerman
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers improved in November 2022. Producer confidence has increased from 2.5 in October to 3.0 in November. This is mainly due to the fact that manufacturers are more positive about their future output.

Producer confidence is still higher than the long-term average of 1.1. It reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7
2021December10.2
2022January9
2022February8.5
2022March8.7
2022April10.8
2022May9.9
2022June8.1
2022July8.4
2022August4.6
2022September2.6
2022October2.5
2022November3

Opinion about future output has improved

Manufacturers are more positive about their output over the next three months. They are also slightly more positive about their order positions. However, they are more negative about their current stocks.

Two component indicators of producer confidence were positive. The majority of manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. Furthermore, manufacturers anticipating output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting an decrease.

On the other hand, there was one negative component, of manufacturers defining their current stock of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Confidence up in over half of industries

In November, producer confidence is higher than in the previous month in over half of industries. Just as in the previous months, confidence is highest in the electrotechnical and machinery industries. However, confidence did decrease here compared to October.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
  November 2022 (average of the component questions) October 2022 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery15.118.6
Transport equipment14.915.3
Textiles, clothes, leather11.13.2
Metal6.32.5
Food, beverages, tobacco-0.9-4.5
Timber and building materials-2.2-3.8
Petroleum-5.8-7.7
Paper and printing-6-3.4

Manufacturing output nearly 5 percent up in September

In August 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 4.6 percent on September 2021. Growth has been fairly stable over the past four months, but smaller than in the preceding months.

Producer confidence in Germany also improved

Germany is an important market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In November, German producer confidence according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute rose. Companies were less pessimistic about the future. However, they assessed their current situation as less positive. In September, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry increased by over 4 percent year on year, as reported by Destatis.