Economic contraction 0.2 percent in Q3 2022

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© Nikki van Toorn
According to the first quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on the basis of currently available data, in Q3 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.2 percent relative to the previous quarter. This was due to less investment, mainly in dwellings and in infrastructure.

In Q3 2022, investments fell by 1.7 percent. Public consumption decreased slightly, while households spent 0.1 percent more than in the previous quarter. Exports and imports of goods and services increased by 0.9 and 1.0 percent, respectively.

Particularly financial institutions, the sector trade, transportation and accommodation and the construction sector made negative contributions to quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, while business services made the largest positive contribution.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2015Quarter 199.6
2015Quarter 299.9
2015Quarter 3100.2
2015Quarter 4100.3
2016Quarter 1101.2
2016Quarter 2101.4
2016Quarter 3102.6
2016Quarter 4103.4
2017Quarter 1104
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.4
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.9
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.7
2020Quarter 2100.1
2020Quarter 3106.5
2020Quarter 4106.5
2021Quarter 1106.5
2021Quarter 2110.4
2021Quarter 3112.4
2021Quarter 4113.1
2022Quarter 1113.4
2022Quarter 2116.2
2022Quarter 3115.9

The rest of this news release deals with economic development relative to Q3 2021.

GDP 3.1 percent up on Q3 2021

According to the first estimate, GDP was up by 3.1 percent relative to Q3 2021. This was mainly due to a higher trade balance, more household consumption and larger investments. Coronavirus measures were no longer in force in Q3 2022, but some restrictions were still in place during Q3 2021.

GDP (volume)
2015Quarter 11.9
2015Quarter 22.1
2015Quarter 32.5
2015Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.6
2018Quarter 22.7
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.9
2019Quarter 11.8
2019Quarter 21.9
2019Quarter 32.1
2019Quarter 42
2020Quarter 1-0.1
2020Quarter 2-8.7
2020Quarter 3-3.3
2020Quarter 4-3.3
2021Quarter 1-2.2
2021Quarter 210.2
2021Quarter 35.4
2021Quarter 46.2
2022Quarter 16.7
2022Quarter 25.1
2022Quarter 33.1

More services and machinery exported

Exports of goods and services were 3.7 percent up year on year in Q3 2022. Particularly the export of services, which includes domestic consumption expenditure of non-residents, was higher than in Q3 2021. Exports of machinery, transport equipment and foodstuffs also increased. Exports of Dutch-manufactured goods contracted by almost 1 percent, while re-exports (exports of previously imported products) grew by approximately 4 percent.

Imports of goods and services grew by 2.0 percent. The trade balance made a positive contribution to economic growth.

Consumers spend more on culture, recreation, accommodation and food services and transportation

In Q3 2022, consumers spent 2.3 percent more than in Q3 2021. They mainly spent more on culture and recreation; accommodation and food services; and transportation and communication. However, consumers spent less on goods such as food and on durable goods such as home furnishing items and vehicles compared to one year previously.

Public consumption was slightly up year on year. This is mainly attributable to paramedical and elderly care. However, the municipal health services performed fewer COVID-19 tests and there were no large-scale vaccination campaigns.

More investments in commercial buildings and aircraft

In Q3 2022, investment in fixed assets was 3.5 percent higher than in the same quarter one year previously. Investment was up mainly in commercial buildings and aircraft. Investments in machinery and software were also higher than one year previously.

Expenditure (volume)
 2022-III (% change)2022-II (% change)
Fixed capital formation3.55.3
Household consumption2.37
Government consumption0.3-0.5

Culture, sport and recreation sector records largest growth

The value added (i.e. output minus consumption of energy, materials and services) in the sector culture, recreation, sports and other services grew by more than 22 percent, making it the fastest growing of all sectors. The growth is broadly based in this sector. A year earlier, the sector was still affected by several restrictions related to coronavirus.

The value added of the business services sector grew by 8.5 percent. Specialised business services (such as management and consultancy firms, and architectural and engineering firms) as well as the travel sector contributed strongly to this growth.

The manufacturing sector grew by 3.5 percent. The machinery, electro-technical and transport equipment industries contributed to this in particular. The construction sector recorded 2 percent growth.

The value added in trade, transportation and accommodation and food services was 2.4 percent higher in Q3 2021 than twelve months previously. Transportation (mainly aviation and rail transport) and accommodation and food services grew in particular. However, the value added of trade declined slightly.

Value added by sector (volume)
 2022-III (% change)2022-II (% change)
Culture, recreation, other services22.340.5
Electricity and gas supply10.59.8
Business services8.59.7
Information and communication4.34
Real estate activities4.24
Trade, transportation, accommodation and food serving2.49.3
Public services, education and care1.71.6
Agriculture, forestry and fishing-0.3-2.7
Water supply and waste management-2.1-2.1
Financial institutions-4.9-0.9
Mining and quarrying-10-16.1

First estimate

The first estimate is published 45 days after the end of a quarter and is conducted based on information available at that moment. It provides an initial picture of the state of the Dutch economy. After the first estimate, new data continue to pour in which are used to make new calculations. The second estimate on economic growth will be released on Friday 23 December. In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.09 percentage points over the past five years (2017-2021), with the two extremes ranging between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage point, both occurring in 2021.

With each new estimate, CBS also determines the new seasonally adjusted figures on previously published quarters. The growth figures of the previous six quarters have been adjusted.