Producer confidence deteriorates in May

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As of May 2022, the mood among Dutch manufacturers is less positive. Producer confidence has declined from 10.8 in April to 9.9 in May, as reported today by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Manufacturers are less positive about their future output and their current stocks of finished products.

The long-term average over the past two decades stands at 1.0. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020. This month, producer confidence is still significantly higher than the long-term average.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2018June7.7
2018July6.3
2018August5.9
2018September5.7
2018October5.9
2018November7.2
2018December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7
2021December10.2
2022January9
2022February8.5
2022March8.7
2022April10.8
2022May9.9

Manufacturers less positive about future output and stocks

Manufacturers’ opinions on their order positions have never been as positive as this month. However, manufacturers are less positive about their future output. Their opinions about their stocks of finished products were more negative than in the previous month as well.

Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive:manufacturers who anticipate output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease.In addition, the majority consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year.

On the other hand, the opinion on stocks of finished products was negative by a fraction. Slightly more manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Confidence highest in electrotechnical and machinery industry

As of May, confidence has fallen in almost all manufacturing industries except the paper industry and the electrotechnical and machinery industry. Confidence is highest in the electrotechnical and machinery industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 May 2022 (average of the component questions)April 2022 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery23.522.8
Timber and building materials14.516.9
Paper and printing11.78.2
Transport equipment11.315.1
Textiles, clothes, leather8.714.6
Food, beverages, tobacco6.27.8
Metal5.66.7
Petroleum56.6

Manufacturing output over 7 percent up in March

In March 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 7.2 percent on March 2021. Output grew by 10.4 percent in the previous month.

Producer confidence in Germany improving

Germany is an important market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In May, German producer confidence according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute improved. Companies assessed their current situation as somewhat better while their expectations were less negative. In March, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry contracted by 4 percent year on year, as reported by Destatis.

Sources

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