Economic outlook again less positive

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.

Producer confidence hardly changed, consumer confidence deteriorated

In March 2022, consumers were more negative than in the previous month, for the sixth month in a row. Consumer confidence was positioned far below the average over the past two decades. Producer confidence hardly changed and is still well above its long-term average this month. In consumer and producer confidence for March, the war in Ukraine plays a role for the first time.

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Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)

Year	Month	Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)	Producer confidence (average of the component questions)
2018	January	24	10.3
2018	February	23	10.9
2018	March	24	9.5
2018	April	25	8.2
2018	May	23	9.8
2018	June	23	7.7
2018	July	23	6.3
2018	August	21	5.9
2018	September	19	5.7
2018	October	15	5.9
2018	November	13	7.2
2018	December	9	7.5
2019	January	0	5.8
2019	February	-2	6.3
2019	March	-4	6.1
2019	April	-3	6.7
2019	May	-3	4.7
2019	June	0	3.3
2019	July	2	3.9
2019	August	0	3.9
2019	September	-2	3.3
2019	October	-1	3.6
2019	November	-2	2.8
2019	December	-2	2.9
2020	January	-3	2.5
2020	February	-2	3.7
2020	March	-2	0.2
2020	April	-22	-28.7
2020	May	-31	-25.1
2020	June	-27	-15.1
2020	July	-26	-8.7
2020	August	-29	-5.4
2020	September	-28	-4.8
2020	October	-30	-5.6
2020	November	-26	-3.8
2020	December	-20	-0.4
2021	January	-19	0.6
2021	February	-19	0.1
2021	March	-18	3.4
2021	April	-14	6.5
2021	May	-9	8.8
2021	June	-3	11.5
2021	July	-4	12.3
2021	August	-6	9.6
2021	September	-5	11.1
2021	October	-10	12.3
2021	November	-19	12.7
2021	December	-25	10.2
2022	January	-28	9
2022	February	-30	8.5
2022	March	-39	8.7

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)

Year	Month	Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)	Producer confidence (average of the component questions)
2018	January	24	10.3
2018	February	23	10.9
2018	March	24	9.5
2018	April	25	8.2
2018	May	23	9.8
2018	June	23	7.7
2018	July	23	6.3
2018	August	21	5.9
2018	September	19	5.7
2018	October	15	5.9
2018	November	13	7.2
2018	December	9	7.5
2019	January	0	5.8
2019	February	-2	6.3
2019	March	-4	6.1
2019	April	-3	6.7
2019	May	-3	4.7
2019	June	0	3.3
2019	July	2	3.9
2019	August	0	3.9
2019	September	-2	3.3
2019	October	-1	3.6
2019	November	-2	2.8
2019	December	-2	2.9
2020	January	-3	2.5
2020	February	-2	3.7
2020	March	-2	0.2
2020	April	-22	-28.7
2020	May	-31	-25.1
2020	June	-27	-15.1
2020	July	-26	-8.7
2020	August	-29	-5.4
2020	September	-28	-4.8
2020	October	-30	-5.6
2020	November	-26	-3.8
2020	December	-20	-0.4
2021	January	-19	0.6
2021	February	-19	0.1
2021	March	-18	3.4
2021	April	-14	6.5
2021	May	-9	8.8
2021	June	-3	11.5
2021	July	-4	12.3
2021	August	-6	9.6
2021	September	-5	11.1
2021	October	-10	12.3
2021	November	-19	12.7
2021	December	-25	10.2
2022	January	-28	9
2022	February	-30	8.5
2022	March	-39	8.7

Higher exports and household consumption, lower investments

Manufacturing output almost 8 percent up in January

In January 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 7.9 percent on January 2021. Output grew by 13.3 percent in the previous month.

More bankruptcies in February

There were 41 more bankruptcies in February than in the previous month. However, the number of pronounced bankruptcies is low compared to the period before the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis.

House price increase over 20 percent in February

In February, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 20.2 percent more expensive than in the same month last year. The price increase is slightly smaller than in the previous month, when the largest price increase (21.1 percent) was recorded since the start of the statistic in 1995.

More vacancies, fewer unemployed and fewer hours worked

In Q4 2021, the number of hours worked adjusted for seasonal effects was 0.2 percent lower than in Q3 2021. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q4 2021 amounted to approximately 3.5 billion.

In the period December through February, unemployment declined by an average of 8 thousand per month. This resulted in 336 thousand unemployed in February 2022, i.e. 3.4 percent of the labour force.

At the end of December, the number of unfilled vacancies stood at 387 thousand. This is 16 thousand more than at the end of the previous quarter. The increase in Q4 was less strong than in the previous three quarters, but surpassed the record of Q3 (372 thousand).

In Q4 2021, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 4.8 percent relative to the previous quarter. Year on year, this turnover increased by 14.5 percent.

1.0 percent GDP growth in Q4 2021

According to the second estimate conducted by CBS, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.0 percent in Q4 2021 relative to the previous quarter.  Growth in Q4 was largely due to increased public consumption, investments and the trade balance.

GDP growth in Q4 2021 relative to Q4 2020 amounted to 6.5 percent. With the release of data on Q4, the provisional annual growth rate over 2021 has become available. GDP was up by 5.0 percent year on year in 2021.