Economic picture slightly less negative in December
The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all figures published by CBS. This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.
| Year | Month | cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0)) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | January | 0.8 |
| 2022 | February | 0.8 |
| 2022 | March | 0.82 |
| 2022 | April | 0.87 |
| 2022 | May | 0.87 |
| 2022 | June | 0.89 |
| 2022 | July | 0.94 |
| 2022 | August | 0.92 |
| 2022 | September | 0.91 |
| 2022 | October | 0.88 |
| 2022 | November | 0.83 |
| 2022 | December | 0.79 |
| 2023 | January | 0.71 |
| 2023 | February | 0.66 |
| 2023 | March | 0.62 |
| 2023 | April | 0.52 |
| 2023 | May | 0.44 |
| 2023 | June | 0.35 |
| 2023 | July | 0.19 |
| 2023 | August | 0.09 |
| 2023 | September | -0.02 |
| 2023 | October | -0.16 |
| 2023 | November | -0.24 |
| 2023 | December | -0.32 |
| 2024 | January | -0.4 |
| 2024 | February | -0.43 |
| 2024 | March | -0.46 |
| 2024 | April | -0.5 |
| 2024 | May | -0.5 |
| 2024 | June | -0.5 |
| 2024 | July | -0.53 |
| 2024 | August | -0.52 |
| 2024 | September | -0.49 |
| 2024 | October | -0.5 |
| 2024 | November | -0.45 |
| 2024 | December | -0.42 |
| 2025 | January | -0.45 |
| 2025 | February | -0.44 |
| 2025 | March | -0.46 |
| 2025 | April | -0.52 |
| 2025 | May | -0.53 |
| 2025 | June | -0.54 |
| 2025 | July | -0.58 |
| 2025 | August | -0.55 |
| 2025 | September | -0.54 |
| 2025 | October | -0.55 |
| 2025 | November | -0.53 |
| 2025 | -0.52 |
Consumers equally negative, producers less negative
Consumers were equally negative in December as in the previous month, producer confidence was less negative. Consumer confidence was below the long-term average for the past twenty years, while producer confidence was above it.
| Year | Month | Consumer confidence (average of the component questions) | Producer confidence (average of the component questions) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | January | -28 | 6.5 |
| 2022 | February | -30 | 5.8 |
| 2022 | March | -39 | 5.7 |
| 2022 | April | -48 | 7.2 |
| 2022 | May | -47 | 5.8 |
| 2022 | June | -50 | 4.2 |
| 2022 | July | -51 | 5.3 |
| 2022 | August | -54 | 2.4 |
| 2022 | September | -59 | 1.2 |
| 2022 | October | -59 | 0.9 |
| 2022 | November | -57 | 1.1 |
| 2022 | December | -52 | 1 |
| 2023 | January | -49 | 1.1 |
| 2023 | February | -44 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | March | -39 | 0.9 |
| 2023 | April | -37 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | May | -38 | -1.7 |
| 2023 | June | -39 | -2.7 |
| 2023 | July | -39 | -2.7 |
| 2023 | August | -40 | -4.6 |
| 2023 | September | -39 | -3.9 |
| 2023 | October | -38 | -3.7 |
| 2023 | November | -33 | -2.6 |
| 2023 | December | -29 | -5.7 |
| 2014 | January | -28 | -4.4 |
| 2014 | February | -27 | -4.2 |
| 2014 | March | -22 | -4.8 |
| 2014 | April | -21 | -3.6 |
| 2014 | May | -22 | -2.8 |
| 2014 | June | -23 | -2.4 |
| 2014 | July | -24 | -2.7 |
| 2014 | August | -24 | -1.9 |
| 2014 | September | -21 | -1.7 |
| 2014 | October | -22 | -3.2 |
| 2014 | November | -25 | -1.8 |
| 2014 | December | -26 | -1.6 |
| 2025 | January | -28 | -1.6 |
| 2025 | February | -32 | -1.2 |
| 2025 | March | -34 | -1.5 |
| 2025 | April | -37 | -3.3 |
| 2025 | May | -37 | -3.9 |
| 2025 | June | -36 | -5 |
| 2025 | July | -32 | -4.9 |
| 2025 | August | -32 | -3.3 |
| 2025 | September | -32 | -1.6 |
| 2025 | October | -27 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | November | -21 | -1.7 |
| 2025 | December | -21 | -1.1 |
Household consumption and exports up, investment down
Household spending was 0.8 percent higher in October 2025 than it was in October 2024, adjusted for price changes and the shopping-day pattern. Households spent more on services and goods.
In October 2025, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was up by 5.6 percent year on year. Export volumes were higher for machinery, crude oil and natural gas and electronic products.
In October 2025, investment in tangible fixed assets was down by 0.4 percent year on year. This was mainly due to less investment in other road transport (lorries, trailers, vans, etc.).
Manufacturing output almost 2 percent higher in October year on year
In October 2025, the calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing sector was 1.9 percent higher than it was in October 2024. After adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output rose by 0.2 percent relative to September.
More bankruptcies in November
Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 54 more bankruptcies in November than in October, an increase of 21 percent.
House prices up by over 6 percent in November, year on year
The average price of an owner-occupied home (excluding newbuild homes) was up by 6.1 percent in November 2025, year on year. Prices in November rose by 0.3 percent relative to October.
More hours worked, fewer vacancies, unemployment fairly stable
There were 408 thousand unemployed persons in November 2025. Just as in September and October, 4.0 percent of the labour force aged 15 to 74 years was unemployed. The number of unemployed persons and the number of people employed has risen by an average of 2 thousand per month over the past three months.
In Q3 2025, employees and self-employed persons worked over 3.7 billion hours in total. Adjusted for seasonal effects, this number was up by 0.1 percent on Q2.
The number of vacancies decreased by 2 thousand to 387 thousand in the third quarter of 2025. The number of vacancies has fallen in almost every quarter for three consecutive years.
In Q3 2025, the turnover of temporary employment and job placement agencies was 0.9 percent higher, year on year.
Economic growth of 0.5 percent in Q3 2025
According to the second estimate carried out by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5 percent in Q3 2025 relative to Q2 2025. This growth was mainly attributable to exports and public consumption.
| Year | Quarter | Index (2021=100) |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter 4 | 101.9 | |
| 2022 | Quarter 1 | 103.2 |
| 2022 | Quarter 2 | 105.6 |
| 2022 | Quarter 3 | 105.7 |
| 2022 | Quarter 4 | 105.5 |
| 2023 | Quarter 1 | 104.9 |
| 2023 | Quarter 2 | 104.6 |
| 2023 | Quarter 3 | 103.9 |
| 2023 | Quarter 4 | 104.2 |
| 2024 | Quarter 1 | 104.2 |
| 2024 | Quarter 2 | 105.4 |
| 2024 | Quarter 3 | 106 |
| 2024 | Quarter 4 | 106.5 |
| 2025 | Quarter 1 | 106.8 |
| 2025 | Quarter 2 | 107.2 |
| 2025 | Quarter 3 | 107.7 |
Related items
- Visualisations - Business Cycle Tracer
- Dossier - Business cycle