Economic outlook less positive
The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy with 13 key macro-economic indicators. It provides a coherent macro-economic picture based on all the figures published by CBS over the past month or quarter and does not necessarily represent the situation at the level of individual households, businesses or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Producer confidence improved, consumer confidence more negative
In December, consumers were again more negative than in the previous month. Consumer confidence was positioned far below the average over the past two decades. In November, producer confidence improved compared to October. It was at the highest level since the survey started in 1985.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Higher household consumption, lower investments
Consumers spent 8.5 percent more in October 2021 than in the same month last year. They mainly spent more on services and durable goods. Compared to October 2019, household consumption was 1.8 percent higher.
In October, the total volume of goods exports was up by 0.1 percent year-on-year. The increase was seen in exports of metal products, for example. However, exports of petroleum products and transport equipment were lower than in October 2020. Relative to October 2019, exports were almost 3 percent higher.
The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets fell by 2.0 percent year-on-year in October. Investments in infrastructure and passenger cars were lower in particular. However, there were more investments in dwellings. Compared to October 2019, investments were almost 8 percent lower.
Manufacturing output almost 10 percent up in October
In October 2021, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 9.9 percent from October 2020. Output was up by 11.6 percent in the previous month.
More bankruptcies in November
There were 57 more bankruptcies (adjusted for court session days) in November than in the previous month. However, the number of pronounced bankruptcies was still low compared to the period before the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis.
House price increase at record high
In November, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 20.1 percent more expensive than in the same month last year. This equals the largest price increase since the start of this statistic in 1995. In February 2000, the price increase was also 20.1 percent.
More hours worked, more vacancies, fewer unemployed
In Q3 2021, the number of hours worked adjusted for seasonal effects was 1.8 percent higher than in Q2 2021. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q3 2021 amounted to approximately 3.5 billion.
In the period September through November, unemployment declined by an average of 17 thousand per month, to 251 thousand in November. This is 2.7 percent of the labour force, the lowest monthly rate since the start of measurements in 2003.
At the end of September, the number of unfilled vacancies stood at 371 thousand. This is 45 thousand more than at the end of the previous quarter. This surpasses the record high of the previous quarter (327 thousand).
A further increase in the number of vacancies, together with falling unemployment, led to even greater tension in the labour market in the third quarter of 2021. There were 126 vacancies for every 100 unemployed.
In Q3 2021, turnover at temporary employment agencies rose by 2.8 percent relative to the previous quarter. Year-on-year, this turnover increased by 14.2 percent.
2.1 percent GDP growth in Q3 2021
According to the second estimate conducted by CBS, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.1 percent in Q3 2021 relative to the previous quarter. This economic growth was mainly due to increased household consumption. Public consumption also contributed positively. Relative to Q3 2020, GDP was up by 5.2 percent.
- Dossier - Business Cycle