Excess mortality again in September

Flower blooms in a cemetery.
© Hollandse Hoogte / David Rozing
In September, weekly mortality was higher than expected. There was excess mortality in four out of the five weeks. The estimated number of deaths in week 39 (27 September to 3 October inclusive) stands at nearly 3,100. This is approximately 300 more than expected for this period. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this based on the latest provisional weekly mortality figures.

This news release focuses on mortality in the five weeks of September (weeks 35 through 39, 30 August to 3 October 2021 inclusive). In this period, mortality was above the expected mortality and there was excess mortality in four of the five weeks. In August, mortality was also above the expected level and excess mortality was seen in two of the four weeks. The estimate for the last week of September (week 39) is around 300 deaths above the expected number and outside the range of usual fluctuations (this means there is excess mortality based on the estimate). The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) registered 20 COVID-19 deaths in week 39 (as at 5 October).

Weekly mortality*
   DeathsExpected mortalityExpected mortality (95% interval)
20201310332772908 – 3645
20202336433112930 – 3692
20203315733442945 – 3742
20204304633923008 – 3776
20205316434073027 – 3788
20206319634012979 – 3823
20207319834082916 – 3901
20208295933872851 – 3922
20209309833522805 – 3898
202010310733152785 – 3845
202011321832532756 – 3751
202012361431742711 – 3637
202013445831042703 – 3505
202014508530242712 – 3337
202015498229572719 – 3195
202016430829152711 – 3120
202017391028692677 – 3060
202018338328412650 – 3032
202019298928212633 – 3009
202020277727942626 – 2962
202021277027702620 – 2920
202022273227532608 – 2898
202023268227352591 – 2880
202024268927372600 – 2875
202025269627252594 – 2855
202026265927172577 – 2857
202027263827232544 – 2902
202028261927192515 – 2923
202029252827202507 – 2934
202030267327072515 – 2900
202031266626872492 – 2882
202032264226822483 – 2881
202033320926692481 – 2857
202034285626632510 – 2815
202035273526672526 – 2807
202036269226762549 – 2804
202037274226982564 – 2832
202038272127292585 – 2873
202039289127522618 – 2886
202040300227862628 – 2943
202041302228072655 – 2960
202042322228392677 – 3001
202043344828622661 – 3063
202044368728892683 – 3095
202045358929022692 – 3111
202046358029322710 – 3155
202047333529722742 – 3202
202048340530122762 – 3263
202049353030372742 – 3332
202050361531002800 – 3399
202051390931662830 – 3501
202052386732222871 – 3573
202053410332662906 – 3625
20211414233092940 – 3677
20212385233432962 – 3724
20213386233762978 – 3775
20214371634253040 – 3809
20215365434403060 – 3821
20216354934343012 – 3856
20217352734412949 – 3934
20218320734202884 – 3955
20219310533842838 – 3931
202110324633472817 – 3877
202111304232852787 – 3782
202112304432052742 – 3668
202113317831342733 – 3535
202114316230542741 – 3366
202115313729862748 – 3224
202116314429442739 – 3148
202117312328972705 – 3088
202118300028692677 – 3060
202119301428492660 – 3037
202120298828212653 – 2989
202121280627972646 – 2947
202122300927802635 – 2925
202123288227622617 – 2906
202124286827642627 – 2901
202125266927512620 – 2882
202126279227432603 – 2883
202127283527502571 – 2929
202128287027452541 – 2949
202129277127472534 – 2960
202130290327342541 – 2926
202131295027132518 – 2908
202132282127082509 – 2907
202133287826952507 – 2883
202134290826882535 – 2841
202135283826932552 – 2833
202136306027022575 – 2829
202137288227242590 – 2858
202138282927552612 – 2899
202139307927782644 – 2912
20214028132655 – 2970
20214128352682 – 2987
20214228662705 – 3028
20214328892688 – 3090
20214429172711 – 3123
20214529302720 – 3139
202146
202147
202148
202149
202150
202151
202152
* Provisional figures. Week 39 in 2021 is an estimate.

Mortality among long-term care users unchanged

In September, the weekly number of deaths was above the expected level both among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz) and among the rest of the population. There were nearly 300 more deaths among long-term care users and approximately 750 more deaths among the rest of the population than expected for this period. The estimate for week 39 is slightly higher than expected for long-term care users. Among the rest of the population, it is well above the expected level and there is excess mortality. In that week, there were approximately 1,050 deaths among long-term care users, including residents of nursing homes and institutions for the disabled. Among the rest of the population, approximately 2,050 deaths were recorded.

Weekly mortality*, by Long-term care (Wlz) use
   Long-term care (Wlz) usersLong-term care (Wlz) users, expectedLong-term care (Wlz) users, expected (95% interval)Other populationOther population, expectedOther population, expected (95% interval)
20201121012521052 – 1451189320251780 – 2270
20202126512721076 – 1468209920391793 – 2285
20203113512821086 – 1478202220621805 – 2319
20204112513011113 – 1489192120911842 – 2339
20205109813101118 – 1503206620971853 – 2341
20206114213091099 – 1519205420921826 – 2358
20207115513091069 – 1549204320991796 – 2403
20208112912961044 – 1549183020911762 – 2419
20209119512761005 – 1546190320761756 – 2396
20201011641260989 – 1531194320561752 – 2359
20201112001229950 – 1507201820251741 – 2308
20201213361191928 – 1454227819831714 – 2252
20201316561156912 – 1400280219481715 – 2180
20201422121120915 – 1326287319041709 – 2100
20201524091091910 – 1273257318661709 – 2022
20201620661075912 – 1238224218401691 – 1990
20201717161055898 – 1211219418141663 – 1965
20201814291048900 – 1195195417931643 – 1944
20201911861038897 – 1179180317831631 – 1935
20202010311029902 – 1155174617651615 – 1915
20202110691015892 – 1138170117551615 – 1895
20202210041007887 – 1127172817461602 – 1890
202023909995886 – 1104177317401585 – 1895
202024958997888 – 1106173117401592 – 1889
202025913989879 – 1099178317361585 – 1886
202026940985864 – 1107171917321585 – 1879
202027932992850 – 1134170617311567 – 1896
202028911998849 – 1147170817211552 – 1890
2020299001003855 – 1152162817171555 – 1879
2020309571004854 – 1154171617041553 – 1855
202031946997851 – 1143172016901540 – 1840
202032904993846 – 1140173816901546 – 1834
2020331311987840 – 1134189816821531 – 1832
2020341113980849 – 1111174316831553 – 1813
202035995974860 – 1087174016931550 – 1835
202036942973860 – 1087175017031562 – 1844
202037942977865 – 1089180017211579 – 1862
202038980989876 – 1102174117401594 – 1886
20203910541001892 – 1110183717511606 – 1896
20204010761015897 – 1133192617711632 – 1909
20204110901028908 – 1147193217801638 – 1922
20204212191042910 – 1175200317971663 – 1930
20204313171054912 – 1195213118081650 – 1966
20204415201068920 – 1215216718211662 – 1981
20204513911074925 – 1224219818271664 – 1991
20204614241086936 – 1235215618461678 – 2014
20204712871102953 – 1252204818701684 – 2056
20204812871121964 – 1278211818921702 – 2081
20204912861135970 – 1300224419011683 – 2120
20205014521163996 – 1329216319371721 – 2153
202051160711931019 – 1368230219721739 – 2205
202052172712231035 – 1410214019991763 – 2236
202053173212441050 – 1437237020221781 – 2263
20211165712641065 – 1463248520451799 – 2290
20212158812841089 – 1480226420591813 – 2305
20213153912941098 – 1491232320821825 – 2339
20214146513131125 – 1501225121111863 – 2360
20215143713231131 – 1515221721171874 – 2361
20216135113221112 – 1532219821121846 – 2379
20217136613221082 – 1562216121201816 – 2423
20218115913091056 – 1561204821111783 – 2439
20219110512881018 – 1559200020961776 – 2416
202110114712721001 – 1543209920751772 – 2379
2021119971241962 – 1519204520441761 – 2328
20211210451203939 – 1466199920021733 – 2271
20211310301167923 – 1412214819671734 – 2199
2021149911131925 – 1337217119231727 – 2118
2021159781102920 – 1283215918841727 – 2040
2021169731085922 – 1248217118581708 – 2008
20211710431065908 – 1221208018321681 – 1983
20211810091058910 – 1205199118111660 – 1961
20211910051048907 – 1189200918001648 – 1952
2021209921039912 – 1165199617821632 – 1933
2021219871025902 – 1147181917721632 – 1912
20212210701017897 – 1137193917631619 – 1907
2021239961005896 – 1114188617571602 – 1912
20212410611007897 – 1116180717571609 – 1906
202125960999889 – 1109170917521602 – 1903
202126985995874 – 1116180717491601 – 1896
20212710361002859 – 1144179917481584 – 1913
20212810381008858 – 1157183217371569 – 1906
20212910241013865 – 1161174717341572 – 1896
20213010421013863 – 1164186117201569 – 1871
20213110981007861 – 1153185217061556 – 1856
20213210521002855 – 1149176917061562 – 1850
2021331071997850 – 1144180716981548 – 1848
2021341047989858 – 1120186116991569 – 1829
2021351029983870 – 1097180917091567 – 1851
2021361109983869 – 1097195117191578 – 1861
2021371039987874 – 1099184317371596 – 1879
2021381028999886 – 1112180117571611 – 1902
20213910421010901 – 1119203717681623 – 1913
2021401025907 – 114317881650 – 1926
2021411037918 – 115717971655 – 1939
2021421052920 – 118518141680 – 1948
2021431064922 – 120518251668 – 1983
2021441078930 – 122618391679 – 1998
2021451085935 – 123418451682 – 2009
202146
202147
202148
202149
202150
202151
202152
* Provisional figures. Week 39 in 2021 is an estimate.

Mortality higher than expected in all age groups

In September, weekly mortality among people over 80 was higher than the expected level, with a total of nearly 500 deaths. In week 39, an estimated close to 1,650 deaths were recorded among the over-80s, around 150 more than the expected number for that week; there was excess mortality. Since July, mortality in this age group has been above the expected level. Both at the beginning and at the end of September (weeks 36 and 39), this age group saw excess mortality.

Weekly mortality among 65 to 79-year-olds was higher than expected in September. In the five weeks of July, there were around 375 more deaths than expected. In week 39, an estimated close to 1,000 deaths were recorded in this age group, over 100 more than the expected number for that week; there was excess mortality. There was also excess mortality in this group at the beginning of June (weeks 22 and 23). Mortality then declined, but increased again as of early July (week 26). As of the last week of July (week 30), there was excess mortality in half of the weeks.

Among people under 65, weekly mortality in September was slightly higher than expected, with a total of nearly 200 more deaths. An estimated 450 deaths were recorded in week 39, approximately 50 more than expected. At the beginning of September (week 36), there was excess mortality in this age group as well.

Weekly mortality*, by age
   0 to 64 years0 to 64 yrs, expected0 to 64 yrs, expected (95% interval)65 to 79 yrs65 to 79 yrs, expected65 to 79 yrs, expected (95% interval)80 yrs and over80 yrs and over, expected80 yrs and over, expected (95% interval)
20201385415374 – 456896947852 – 1041182219181632 – 2204
20202432413371 – 456967944851 – 1038196519571650 – 2263
20203418415371 – 460913944851 – 1038182619881657 – 2319
20204354417374 – 459936949856 – 1043175620301701 – 2360
20205450417375 – 460924956857 – 1056179020391717 – 2360
20206401417371 – 463982957843 – 1071181320321691 – 2373
20207408420374 – 466938961832 – 1091185220321649 – 2415
20208340420374 – 467870961815 – 1108174920091600 – 2418
20209404420370 – 470911951805 – 1096178319841574 – 2394
202010394417370 – 464889944804 – 1085182419571557 – 2357
202011410415367 – 463948932803 – 1062186019091537 – 2281
202012449410364 – 4561079917796 – 1039208618491503 – 2195
202013502407366 – 4481401907806 – 1008255517911486 – 2097
202014499401357 – 4441503889806 – 972308317351490 – 1981
202015485394355 – 4321435876809 – 942306216881496 – 1880
202016426389350 – 4271234867799 – 935264816601505 – 1815
202017455383341 – 4251155857787 – 926230016301490 – 1769
202018446381342 – 4191000847779 – 916193716131472 – 1755
202019391380339 – 420915845777 – 912168315971458 – 1735
202020374378339 – 418835834768 – 901156815811460 – 1703
202021367377335 – 419805832766 – 898159815601459 – 1661
202022371376330 – 422858830764 – 895150315471451 – 1643
202023386378335 – 421835827767 – 887146115291425 – 1634
202024405383340 – 425834829770 – 888145015251431 – 1619
202025375382341 – 423855827765 – 889146615141427 – 1601
202026381384342 – 426828825763 – 887145015071407 – 1606
202027402385342 – 428809829764 – 894142715071375 – 1639
202028390386347 – 424812830760 – 899141715011352 – 1650
202029373389351 – 426775830762 – 899138014991337 – 1661
202030407387349 – 425823828759 – 896144314911343 – 1639
202031376383347 – 419841824752 – 896144914781334 – 1622
202032420384345 – 423820829755 – 904140214671318 – 1615
202033463382345 – 418928826749 – 904181814591325 – 1592
202034417382342 – 422863829756 – 901157614501346 – 1554
202035353384338 – 429865831761 – 900151714501354 – 1546
202036416385339 – 431828833766 – 900144814561373 – 1538
202037396390343 – 437898839773 – 905144814661383 – 1548
202038395397350 – 445845850777 – 923148114791390 – 1568
202039394396346 – 447880855785 – 924161714981416 – 1580
202040435400348 – 453917865789 – 941165015181416 – 1620
202041379400354 – 447990868785 – 950165315371436 – 1638
202042432405360 – 449987872788 – 956180315601446 – 1674
202043425406362 – 4501080878787 – 969194315761438 – 1713
202044409403360 – 4471166888798 – 979211215951443 – 1748
202045434403362 – 4431111890807 – 973204416071441 – 1774
202046435408369 – 4461059898814 – 982208616251449 – 1801
202047417411376 – 4471083913829 – 996183516471468 – 1826
202048436414377 – 4501084925845 – 1005188516731482 – 1863
202049446411373 – 4501112933843 – 1022197216921481 – 1903
202050464413374 – 4511104938853 – 1023204717491525 – 1973
202051473416378 – 4541187941848 – 1034224918091563 – 2056
202052432415375 – 4551146944849 – 1039228918651598 – 2132
202053462413372 – 4541280958863 – 1052236118981621 – 2174
20211429411369 – 4521178971877 – 1065253519301644 – 2215
20212410409367 – 4511111969875 – 1062233119691662 – 2275
20213426411366 – 4551087969875 – 1062234920001670 – 2331
20214403412370 – 4551106974880 – 1067220720421713 – 2372
20215380413370 – 4551101981881 – 1080217320511730 – 2372
20216410413366 – 4591097981867 – 1095204220441703 – 2385
20217478415369 – 4621038986856 – 1115201120441661 – 2427
20218403416369 – 463985986840 – 1133181920211612 – 2430
20219416415365 – 466969975830 – 1121172019971587 – 2407
202110416413365 – 460990969828 – 1109184019691569 – 2369
202111414410363 – 458985956827 – 1085164319211549 – 2292
202112388405360 – 4511008941819 – 1062164818601514 – 2206
202113414402361 – 4441041930830 – 1031172318021497 – 2108
202114447396353 – 4401047912829 – 995166817461500 – 1992
202115440390351 – 4281077898831 – 965162016991507 – 1891
202116454385346 – 4231019890822 – 958167116701515 – 1825
202117435379337 – 4201046879809 – 948164216401500 – 1779
202118410377338 – 4151023869801 – 937156716231482 – 1764
202119495376335 – 416935866799 – 934158416071468 – 1745
202120415374335 – 4141026855789 – 922154715911469 – 1712
202121397373331 – 415867854788 – 920154215701469 – 1671
202122438372326 – 418946851786 – 916162515561460 – 1652
202123404374331 – 417926848789 – 908155215391434 – 1643
202124409378336 – 421897850791 – 909156215341440 – 1629
202125398378337 – 419846848787 – 910142515231437 – 1610
202126425380338 – 422865846784 – 908150215161417 – 1615
202127413381338 – 424896851786 – 916152615161385 – 1648
202128408382343 – 420900851782 – 920156215101361 – 1659
202129378385347 – 422904852783 – 920148915091347 – 1671
202130397383345 – 421939849781 – 917156715001352 – 1648
202131412379343 – 415919845773 – 917161914871343 – 1631
202132407380341 – 419875851776 – 925153914751327 – 1623
202133400378341 – 414913848771 – 925156514671334 – 1601
202134440378338 – 418936850777 – 923153214591354 – 1563
202135418380334 – 425877852782 – 922154314591363 – 1555
202136428381335 – 4271009854787 – 922162314641382 – 1547
202137413386339 – 433919861794 – 927155014751392 – 1557
202138423393346 – 440901872799 – 945150514881399 – 1577
202139442392342 – 443985877807 – 946165215071425 – 1589
202140396344 – 449887811 – 96315271426 – 1629
202141396349 – 443890808 – 97215461445 – 1647
202142400356 – 445894810 – 97815701455 – 1684
202143402358 – 446900809 – 99115851448 – 1722
202144399355 – 443911820 – 100216051453 – 1758
202145398358 – 439913830 – 99616171451 – 1783
202146
202147
202148
202149
202150
202151
202152
* Provisional figures. Week 39 in 2021 is an estimate.

COVID-19 mortality known up to March inclusive

The figures on (excess) mortality are based on daily reports on the number of deaths received by CBS. These reports do not contain any information about the cause of death. CBS receives such information at a later stage via a death cause certificate. The cause of death is known for all deceased up to and including March 2021. According to these figures, 28,747 thousand people died of COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021, as published by CBS on 1 July. Excess mortality during the first wave and the second wave (up to and including March 2021) is entirely attributable to mortality from the novel coronavirus.

Data sources for RIVM

To date, RIVM has registered 18,190 COVID-19 deaths. These include 16,646 recorded until March 2021 inclusive (as at 5 October 2021). RIVM receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is higher because of the following reasons: it is possible that not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no reporting obligation for COVID-19 and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Estimate for week 39

The figures for week 39 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. On Friday 15 October, CBS will publish provisional figures on mortality in week 39. The figures will be more complete by then.