Economic contraction 0.1 percent in Q4 2020

More recent figures are available on this topic. View the latest figures here.
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Dutch gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.1 percent in Q4 2020 relative to the previous quarter. The second GDP estimate is published 90 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate is the same as in the first estimate, which was published on 16 February. The 0.1-percent decline in Q4 was mainly caused by decreased household consumption. Increased investments cushioned the economic contraction.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
   index (2010=100)
2013Quarter 1100.1
2013Quarter 299.9
2013Quarter 3100.5
2013Quarter 4101.1
2014Quarter 1101.0
2014Quarter 2101.6
2014Quarter 3101.9
2014Quarter 4102.8
2015Quarter 1103.4
2015Quarter 2103.7
2015Quarter 3104.1
2015Quarter 4104.1
2016Quarter 1105.1
2016Quarter 2105.3
2016Quarter 3106.5
2016Quarter 4107.4
2017Quarter 1107.9
2017Quarter 2108.9
2017Quarter 3109.7
2017Quarter 4110.5
2018Quarter 1111.0
2018Quarter 2111.7
2018Quarter 3112.0
2018Quarter 4112.4
2019Quarter 1113.0
2019Quarter 2113.4
2019Quarter 3113.8
2019Quarter 4114.3
2020Quarter 1112.5
2020Quarter 2103.0
2020Quarter 3111.0
2020Quarter 4110.9

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data on sectors including construction, business services, accommodation and food services, the public sector, care and finance. These data are then incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, adjustments in the second estimate relative to the first estimate have averaged 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes at - 0.1 and + 0.3 percentage points.

Adjusted quarter-on-quarter changes in Q1, Q2 and Q3 2020

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. While conducting the second estimate for Q4, CBS also adjusts the first three quarters on the basis of the most recent data. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate has been revised for all three quarters: Q1 from -1.5 to -1.6 percent, Q2 from -8.5 to -8.4 percent, and Q3 from 7.8 to 7.7 percent.

Contraction relative to Q4 2019 adjusted to 2.8 percent

Year-on-year, the GDP growth rate in Q4 was -2.8 percent. This was -2.9 percent in the first estimate. The growth rates for Q2 and Q3 have been adjusted as well, from -9.4 to -9.3 and from -2.5 to -2.4 percent, respectively. The adjustments are mainly due to upward adjustments for manufacturing and for taxes on products.

GDP (volume)
   mutatie (year-on-year % change)
2013Quarter 1-1.7
2013Quarter 2-0.5
2013Quarter 30.3
2013Quarter 41.4
2014Quarter 11.3
2014Quarter 21.4
2014Quarter 31.1
2014Quarter 41.8
2015Quarter 11.9
2015Quarter 22.1
2015Quarter 32.5
2015Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23.0
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.7
2018Quarter 22.8
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.8
2019Quarter 11.6
2019Quarter 21.7
2019Quarter 31.8
2019Quarter 41.6
2020Quarter 1-0.2
2020Quarter 2-9.3
2020Quarter 3-2.4
2020Quarter 4-2.8

GDP 3.7 percent down in 2020

Due to the adjustments in annual growth rates for Q2, Q3 and Q4 2020, annual GDP growth was also adjusted to 3.7 percent for 2020, versus 3.8 percent according to the first estimate. This contraction is the same as in 2009. It was mainly due to lower household consumption, but aggravated by declining investments in fixed assets and a declining trade balance. However, public consumption showed slight growth.

5 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that, in Q4 2020, the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 5 thousand relative to Q3 2020. The first estimate suggested a decline of 14 thousand jobs.

The second estimate further suggests a year-on-year decrease of 108 thousand employee and self-employed jobs in Q4, versus 133 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. Figures for the first three quarters of 2020 have also been adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. Overall, the number of employee and self-employed jobs decreased by 48 thousand on average in 2020.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2013Quarter 1-52
2013Quarter 2-22
2013Quarter 3-10
2013Quarter 4-12
2014Quarter 1-12
2014Quarter 218
2014Quarter 323
2014Quarter 429
2015Quarter 136
2015Quarter 233
2015Quarter 337
2015Quarter 442
2016Quarter 113
2016Quarter 254
2016Quarter 346
2016Quarter 454
2017Quarter 163
2017Quarter 267
2017Quarter 378
2017Quarter 475
2018Quarter 180
2018Quarter 266
2018Quarter 367
2018Quarter 447
2019Quarter 154
2019Quarter 239
2019Quarter 334
2019Quarter 456
2020Quarter 124
2020Quarter 2-297
2020Quarter 3169
2020Quarter 45