Manufacturing output almost 4 percent down in October

In October 2020, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 3.7 percent down on October 2019. This is the smallest contraction after May 2020, when output was more than 12 percent lower than one year previously.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume)
jaarmaandchange (year-on-year % change)
2016November3.4
2016December6.7
2017January0.4
2017February4.9
2017March3
2017April0.5
2017May5
2017June2.4
2017July2.7
2017August3.7
2017September4.8
2017October5.1
2017November5.3
2017December4.4
2018January7.5
2018February3.2
2018March3.8
2018April4.7
2018May2.9
2018June3.3
2018July0.9
2018August4
2018September1.7
2018October2.4
2018November1.3
2018December-4.3
2019January-0.6
2019February-0.1
2019March-0.8
2019April-0.3
2019May-0.9
2019June-2.5
2019July0
2019August-1.7
2019September1.2
2019Oktober0.5
2019November-1.6
2019December-1.2
2020January1.4
2020February-0.9
2020March-1.9
2020April-10.9
2020May-12.1
2020June-9.7
2020July-4.9
2020August-3.8
2020September-6.6
2020October-3.7

Again output decline in majority of industries

In October, approximately two-thirds of the industries again saw their output decline on an annual basis. Of the eight largest industries within manufacturing, the machinery industry recorded the strongest output contraction. However, the important chemical industry recorded higher year-on-year production for the fourth month in a row.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume) by sector, Oct0ber 2020
Categorychange (year-on-year % change)
Chemical products9.5
Electrical and electronics2.7
Rubber and plastic products1.6
Food products-1.1
Metal products-4.9
Transport equipment-4.9
Repair and installation of machinery-16.8
Machinery-18.1
Manufacturing (total)-3.7
Altogether, the industries referred to in the above graph account for approximately 75 percent of the total manufacturing output

Manufacturing output recovering steadily

A more accurate picture of short-term output developments is obtained when figures are adjusted for seasonal effects and the working-day pattern. After adjustments, an increase of 2.0 percent is seen in manufacturing output between September and October. 

Adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, manufacturing output is seen to fluctuate significantly. From mid-2014 until the beginning of 2018, the overall trend was upward. Subsequently, the trend has been downward. A low point was reached in May 2020, when manufacturing output was at the average level of 2010. Since June, output has grown almost continuously, so that output in October was about the same level as at the beginning of 2017.

Seasonally adjusted average daily output manufacturing (volume)
jaarmaandindex (2015=100)
2016November105
2016December106.3
2017January103.1
2017February105.5
2017March105.2
2017April104.6
2017May106.6
2017June106.1
2017July106.1
2017August105.6
2017September107.3
2017October107.7
2017November109.7
2017December110.4
2018January110.5
2018February109.4
2018March109.4
2018April109.4
2018May109.6
2018June109.3
2018July107.6
2018August109.3
2018September109.1
2018October109.6
2018November110.2
2018December107
2019January109.6
2019February109.2
2019March108.8
2019April108.9
2019May108.5
2019June107.3
2019July107.5
2019August107.8
2019September109.5
2019October109.7
2019November108.4
2019December106.5
2020January109.8
2020February107.8
2020March106.5
2020April97.6
2020May96.0
2020June98.5
2020July102.6
2020August103.4
2020September103.1
2020October105.2

Dutch manufacturers less negative

Confidence among Dutch manufacturers was less negative in November. Manufacturers were mainly less negative about their order position. 

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute, producer confidence improved in November for the seventh consecutive month. Companies assessed their current situation as markedly better. However, expectations for the coming months turned notably less optimistic. In October, the average daily output generated by the German industry contracted by over 4 percent year-on-year, as reported by Destatis. The decrease is smaller than in the seven previous months.

The figures published in this news release are provisional and subject to revisions.