Mortality not rising further in week 45

In week 45 (2 to 8 November inclusive), the estimated number of deaths stood at 3,630. This is approximately the same number as in the previous week, when there were 3,644 deaths. Mortality was elevated in week 45, with around 700 more deaths recorded than normally expected in this period. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this based on a provisional weekly death count.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 DeathsEstimated mortalityEstimated mortality (95% interval)
1310332772908 – 3645
2336533112930 – 3692
3315733442945 – 3742
4304633923008 – 3776
5316234073027 – 3788
6319334012979 – 3823
7319934082916 – 3901
8295933872851 – 3922
9309733522805 – 3898
10310533152785 – 3845
11321832532756 – 3751
12361531742711 – 3637
13445931042703 – 3505
14508430242712 – 3337
15497929572719 – 3195
16430429152711 – 3120
17390728692677 – 3060
18337828412650 – 3032
19298628212633 – 3009
20277427942626 – 2962
21277027702620 – 2920
22272627532608 – 2898
23268227352591 – 2880
24269127372600 – 2875
25269427252594 – 2855
26265927172577 – 2857
27263627232544 – 2902
28261927192515 – 2923
29252727202507 – 2934
30267227072515 – 2900
31266326872492 – 2882
32263826822483 – 2881
33320926692481 – 2857
34284926632510 – 2815
35273226672526 – 2807
36268526762549 – 2804
37273626982564 – 2832
38271527292585 – 2873
39288627522618 – 2886
40299527862628 – 2943
41301228072655 – 2960
42321028392677 – 3001
43342928622661 – 3063
44364428892683 – 3095
45363029022692 – 3111
4629322710 – 3155
4729722742 – 3202
4830122762 – 3263
4930372742 – 3332
5031002800 – 3399
5131662830 – 3501
5232222871 – 3573
* Provisional figures. Week 45 is an estimate.

Mortality among long-term care users not increasing further

Based on the estimate for week 45, the number of deaths appears to decline among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz), such as residents of nursing homes. In week 45, over 1,400 long-term care users passed away, 100 fewer than in the previous week. There were 2,200 deaths among the rest of the population, i.e. an increase compared to week 44. The estimate is based on death records received by CBS so far, which means that the distribution may still be different.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 Long-term care (Wlz) users, deathsLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortalityLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95% interval)Other population, deathsOther population, estimated mortalityOther population, estimated mortality (95% interval)
1121012521052 – 1451189320251780 – 2270
2126512721076 – 1468210020391793 – 2285
3113512821086 – 1478202220621805 – 2319
4112513011113 – 1489192120911842 – 2339
5109813101118 – 1503206420971853 – 2341
6114213091099 – 1519205120921826 – 2358
7115513091069 – 1549204420991796 – 2403
8112912961044 – 1549183020911762 – 2419
9119512761005 – 1546190220761756 – 2396
1011641260989 – 1531194120561752 – 2359
1112001229950 – 1507201820251741 – 2308
1213351191928 – 1454228019831714 – 2252
1316561156912 – 1400280319481715 – 2180
1422121120915 – 1326287219041709 – 2100
1524091091910 – 1273257018661709 – 2022
1620661075912 – 1238223818401691 – 1990
1717161055898 – 1211219118141663 – 1965
1814291048900 – 1195194917931643 – 1944
1911861038897 – 1179180017831631 – 1935
2010311029902 – 1155174317651615 – 1915
2110691015892 – 1138170117551615 – 1895
2210041007887 – 1127172217461602 – 1890
23909995886 – 1104177317401585 – 1895
24958997888 – 1106173317401592 – 1889
25912989879 – 1099178217361585 – 1886
26940985864 – 1107171917321585 – 1879
27931992850 – 1134170517311567 – 1896
28911998849 – 1147170817211552 – 1890
299001003855 – 1152162717171555 – 1879
309571004854 – 1154171517041553 – 1855
31946997851 – 1143171716901540 – 1840
32904993846 – 1140173416901546 – 1834
331311987840 – 1134189816821531 – 1832
341113980849 – 1111173616831553 – 1813
35995974860 – 1087173716931550 – 1835
36942973860 – 1087174317031562 – 1844
37942977865 – 1089179417211579 – 1862
38980989876 – 1102173517401594 – 1886
3910541001892 – 1110183217511606 – 1896
4010761015897 – 1133191917711632 – 1909
4110901028908 – 1147192217801638 – 1922
4212161042910 – 1175199417971663 – 1930
4313151054912 – 1195211418081650 – 1966
4415131068920 – 1215213118211662 – 1981
4514211074925 – 1224220918271664 – 1991
461086936 – 123518461678 – 2014
471102953 – 125218701684 – 2056
481121964 – 127818921702 – 2081
491135970 – 130019011683 – 2120
501163996 – 132919371721 – 2153
5111931019 – 136819721739 – 2205
5212231035 – 141019991763 – 2236
* Provisional figures. Week 45 is an estimate.

More men

Compared to the previous week, mortality continued to rise among men in week 45, while it fell slightly among women. More men than women have died in recent weeks, although there are more older women than older men. This was also the case during the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic. In this period (weeks 11 up to and including 19), excess mortality stood at 38 percent among men, versus 29 percent among women.

Weekly mortality, 2020*
WeekMenWomen
115031600
216771688
315301627
414701576
515761586
615911602
715071692
814851474
915041593
1015171588
1115971621
1218731742
1323662093
1426662418
1525272452
1621232181
1719321975
1816731705
1914621524
2014171357
2113881382
2213261400
2313731309
2413141377
2513431351
2613171342
2712801356
2812171402
2912341293
3013201352
3112961367
3213191319
3315411668
3414171432
3513461386
3613281357
3713471389
3813701345
3914331453
4015001495
4115641448
4216071603
4317961633
4418401804
4518801750
* Provisional figures. Week 45 is an estimate.

Mainly seniors

As of week 39, the number of deaths among the elderly in particular is higher than the average expected for this period. However, the number of elderly deaths in week 45 did not increase compared to the previous week. The estimates for week 45 include 2,050 people aged 80 years and over, and 1,150 people aged 65 to 79 years.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
 Population 0 to 65 yrs, deathsPopulation 0 to 65 yrs, estimated mortalityPopulation 0 to 65 years, estimated mortality (95% interval)Population 65 to 80 yrs, deathsPopulation 65 to 80 yrs, estimated mortalityPopulation 65 to 80 yrs, estimated mortality (95% interval)Population 80 yrs and over, deathsPopulation 80 yrs and over, estimated mortalityPopulation 80 yrs and over, estimated mortality (95% interval)
1385415374 – 456896947852 – 1041182219181632 – 2204
2432413371 – 456967944851 – 1038196619571650 – 2263
3418415371 – 460913944851 – 1038182619881657 – 2319
4352417374 – 459936949856 – 1043175820301701 – 2360
5449417375 – 460924956857 – 1056178920391717 – 2360
6400417371 – 463981957843 – 1071181220321691 – 2373
7409420374 – 466938961832 – 1091185220321649 – 2415
8340420374 – 467870961815 – 1108174920091600 – 2418
9404420370 – 470911951805 – 1096178219841574 – 2394
10393417370 – 464889944804 – 1085182319571557 – 2357
11409415367 – 463949932803 – 1062186019091537 – 2281
12450410364 – 4561079917796 – 1039208618491503 – 2195
13502407366 – 4481402907806 – 1008255517911486 – 2097
14498401357 – 4441503889806 – 972308317351490 – 1981
15483394355 – 4321435876809 – 942306116881496 – 1880
16426389350 – 4271232867799 – 935264616601505 – 1815
17454383341 – 4251154857787 – 926229916301490 – 1769
18443381342 – 419999847779 – 916193616131472 – 1755
19390380339 – 420914845777 – 912168215971458 – 1735
20373378339 – 418833834768 – 901156815811460 – 1703
21368377335 – 419805832766 – 898159715601459 – 1661
22366376330 – 422858830764 – 895150215471451 – 1643
23385378335 – 421836827767 – 887146115291425 – 1634
24407383340 – 425835829770 – 888144915251431 – 1619
25375382341 – 423856827765 – 889146315141427 – 1601
26381384342 – 426828825763 – 887145015071407 – 1606
27402385342 – 428807829764 – 894142715071375 – 1639
28389386347 – 424813830760 – 899141715011352 – 1650
29372389351 – 426774830762 – 899138114991337 – 1661
30408387349 – 425821828759 – 896144314911343 – 1639
31374383347 – 419842824752 – 896144714781334 – 1622
32418384345 – 423820829755 – 904140014671318 – 1615
33463382345 – 418928826749 – 904181814591325 – 1592
34416382342 – 422860829756 – 901157314501346 – 1554
35352384338 – 429863831761 – 900151714501354 – 1546
36413385339 – 431827833766 – 900144514561373 – 1538
37392390343 – 437895839773 – 905144914661383 – 1548
38393397350 – 445843850777 – 923147914791390 – 1568
39391396346 – 447877855785 – 924161814981416 – 1580
40434400348 – 453911865789 – 941165015181416 – 1620
41376400354 – 447986868785 – 950165015371436 – 1638
42429405360 – 449981872788 – 956180015601446 – 1674
43420406362 – 4501071878787 – 969193815761438 – 1713
44399403360 – 4471147888798 – 979209815951443 – 1748
45427403362 – 4431140890807 – 973206316071441 – 1774
46408369 – 446898814 – 98216251449 – 1801
47411376 – 447913829 – 99616471468 – 1826
48414377 – 450925845 – 100516731482 – 1863
49411373 – 450933843 – 102216921481 – 1903
50413374 – 451938853 – 102317491525 – 1973
51416378 – 454941848 – 103418091563 – 2056
52415375 – 455944849 – 103918651598 – 2132
* Provisional figures. Week 45 is an estimate.

Mortality as of week 39 higher than expected

As of week 39, weekly mortality is higher than expected. With the exception of elevated mortality in weeks 33 and 34 during the heat wave, the average weekly death count fell slightly below the expected levels as of week 19 had there not been a coronavirus epidemic. Prior to this, mortality was elevated for nine weeks on account of the COVID-19 epidemic. During the first wave of the epidemic, 10 thousand people died for whom COVID-19 was the confirmed or suspected cause of death.

For week 45 and as at 10 November, the municipal health services (GGD) reported 358 confirmed COVID-19 deaths to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), and 409 confirmed cases for week 44. The actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher because of the following reasons: possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested, there is no obligation to report COVID-19 deaths and registration sometimes takes a little longer.

Estimate

The figures for week 45 are estimates, based on 83 percent of the overall number of death records to be received by CBS. CBS will publish provisional weekly mortality figures for week 45 on Friday 20 November. The figures will be more complete by then.