Manufacturing output almost 7 percent down in September

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Average daily output manufacturing (volume)

jaar	maand	change (year-on-year % change)
2016	October	0
2016	November	3.4
2016	December	6.7
2017	January	0.4
2017	February	4.9
2017	March	3
2017	April	0.5
2017	May	5
2017	June	2.4
2017	July	2.7
2017	August	3.7
2017	September	4.8
2017	October	5.1
2017	November	5.3
2017	December	4.4
2018	January	7.5
2018	February	3.2
2018	March	3.8
2018	April	4.7
2018	May	2.9
2018	June	3.3
2018	July	0.9
2018	August	4
2018	September	1.7
2018	October	2.4
2018	November	1.3
2018	December	-4.3
2019	January	-0.6
2019	February	-0.1
2019	March	-0.8
2019	April	-0.3
2019	May	-0.9
2019	June	-2.5
2019	July	0
2019	August	-1.7
2019	September	1.2
2019	Oktober	0.5
2019	November	-1.6
2019	December	-1.2
2020	January	1.4
2020	February	-0.9
2020	March	-1.9
2020	April	-10.9
2020	May	-12.1
2020	June	-9.7
2020	July	-5
2020	August	-3.6
2020	September	-6.8

Average daily output manufacturing (volume)

jaar	maand	change (year-on-year % change)
2016	October	0
2016	November	3.4
2016	December	6.7
2017	January	0.4
2017	February	4.9
2017	March	3
2017	April	0.5
2017	May	5
2017	June	2.4
2017	July	2.7
2017	August	3.7
2017	September	4.8
2017	October	5.1
2017	November	5.3
2017	December	4.4
2018	January	7.5
2018	February	3.2
2018	March	3.8
2018	April	4.7
2018	May	2.9
2018	June	3.3
2018	July	0.9
2018	August	4
2018	September	1.7
2018	October	2.4
2018	November	1.3
2018	December	-4.3
2019	January	-0.6
2019	February	-0.1
2019	March	-0.8
2019	April	-0.3
2019	May	-0.9
2019	June	-2.5
2019	July	0
2019	August	-1.7
2019	September	1.2
2019	Oktober	0.5
2019	November	-1.6
2019	December	-1.2
2020	January	1.4
2020	February	-0.9
2020	March	-1.9
2020	April	-10.9
2020	May	-12.1
2020	June	-9.7
2020	July	-5
2020	August	-3.6
2020	September	-6.8

Output decline in majority of industries

In September, almost two-thirds of the industries again saw their output decline on an annual basis. Contraction was also larger in most of those industries compared to August. Of the eight largest industries within manufacturing, the repair and installation of machinery industry recorded the strongest output contraction. However, the important chemical industry recorded higher year-on-year production for the third month in a row.

Downward trend

A more accurate picture of short-term output developments is obtained when figures are adjusted for seasonal effects and the working-day pattern. After adjustments, an increase of 1.0 percent is seen in manufacturing output between August and September. 

Adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, manufacturing output is seen to fluctuate significantly. From mid-2014 until the beginning of 2018, the overall trend was upward. Subsequently, the trend has been downward.

Recovery of producer confidence is faltering in October

After five consecutive months in which confidence among Dutch manufacturers improved, confidence deteriorated slightly in October. Manufacturers were more negative about their future output. The industrial capacity utilisation rate stood at 79.2 percent at the start of Q4 2020. This was higher than the 76.9-percent rate at the start of Q3.

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute, producer confidence improved in October for the sixth consecutive month and was back in positive territory for the first time since June 2019. A great many more companies were satisfied with their current situation. However, recent optimism about the coming months has evaporated. In the past quarter, capacity utilisation increased considerably, from 75.3 points to 79.8 points. In September, the average daily output generated by the German industry contracted by almost 9 percent year-on-year, as reported by Destatis.The year-on-year decrease is smaller than in the previous six months.