Economic contraction of 8.5 percent in Q2 2020

© Hollandse Hoogte / Peter Hilz
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 8.5 percent in Q2 2020 relative to Q1 2020. The second GDP estimate is published approximately 90 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate is the same as in the first estimate, which was published on 14 August. The overall picture of the economy has also remained unchanged. More than half of the GDP decline over Q2 is attributable to the nosedive in household consumption, while investments in fixed assets and the trade balance also decreased sharply. Compared to the first estimate, investments in fixed assets, including investments in construction, computers and R&D, have been adjusted upwards. The trade balance has been adjusted upwards as well. However, household consumption has been adjusted downwards.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
   index (2010=100)
2013Quarter 1100.1
2013Quarter 299.9
2013Quarter 3100.5
2013Quarter 4101.1
2014Quarter 1101
2014Quarter 2101.6
2014Quarter 3101.9
2014Quarter 4102.8
2015Quarter 1103.4
2015Quarter 2103.7
2015Quarter 3104.1
2015Quarter 4104.1
2016Quarter 1105.1
2016Quarter 2105.3
2016Quarter 3106.5
2016Quarter 4107.4
2017Quarter 1107.9
2017Quarter 2108.9
2017Quarter 3109.7
2017Quarter 4110.5
2018Quarter 1111.1
2018Quarter 2111.7
2018Quarter 3112
2018Quarter 4112.4
2019Quarter 1113
2019Quarter 2113.4
2019Quarter 3113.8
2019Quarter 4114.3
2020Quarter 1112.6
2020Quarter 2103

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction, business services, accommodation and food services, government, care and financial institutions. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.04 percentage points over the past half decade, with the two extremes amounting to - 0.1 and + 0.2 percentage points.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new GDP estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rates in previous quarters has not been adjusted.

Contraction relative to Q2 2019

Year-on-year, GDP declined by 9.4 percent in Q2. In the first estimate, this was 9.3 percent. The overall picture of the economy has remained unchanged. The year-on-year contraction was mainly due to lower household consumption, but investments in fixed assets and the trade balance declined as well.

Compared to the first estimate, output in the manufacturing sector has been adjusted downwards across the board. Production in the sectors financial services and information and communication has been adjusted downwards as well. Output in the sectors trade and business services was higher than previously calculated.

GDP (volume)
   mutatie (year-on-year % change)
2013Quarter 1-1.7
2013Quarter 2-0.5
2013Quarter 30.3
2013Quarter 41.4
2014Quarter 11.3
2014Quarter 21.4
2014Quarter 31.1
2014Quarter 41.8
2015Quarter 11.9
2015Quarter 22.1
2015Quarter 32.5
2015Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.7
2018Quarter 22.8
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.8
2019Quarter 11.6
2019Quarter 21.7
2019Quarter 31.8
2019Quarter 41.6
2020Quarter 1-0.2
2020Quarter 2-9.4

297 thousand fewer jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs decreased by 297 thousand in Q2 2020 compared to the previous quarter. The first estimate suggested a decrease of 322 thousand jobs.

Relative to Q2 2019, the second estimate for Q2 2020 suggested a contraction of 178 thousand employee and self-employed jobs, versus 223 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional source data becomes available. During the first estimate, the response for the third month in each quarter is still low. Due to new data on the month of June, the picture is now less negative than in the first estimate.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2013Quarter 1-52
2013Quarter 2-22
2013Quarter 3-10
2013Quarter 4-12
2014Quarter 1-12
2014Quarter 218
2014Quarter 323
2014Quarter 429
2015Quarter 136
2015Quarter 233
2015Quarter 337
2015Quarter 442
2016Quarter 114
2016Quarter 254
2016Quarter 346
2016Quarter 454
2017Quarter 164
2017Quarter 267
2017Quarter 378
2017Quarter 474
2018Quarter 181
2018Quarter 266
2018Quarter 367
2018Quarter 447
2019Quarter 156
2019Quarter 238
2019Quarter 334
2019Quarter 455
2020Quarter 123
2020Quarter 2-297

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